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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Player Ratings - Michigan St.
3 years 2 weeks ago #27628
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
From a player rating standpoint, everyone performed with the exception of David McCormack, Dajuan Harris and Christian Braun. Here is a brief explanation of how the rating and expected rating is calculated. I know there are some Dajuan fans who will take exception to his poor rating relative to expectations.
Expected Rating: This is based on a total team rating that would be required to beat the No. 5 ranked team in the country. I just chose No. 5 since that is where KU should generally be. That total team rating is then allocated to individual players based on the minutes played on a sliding scale basis. A player who plays 35 minutes, for example is weighted at 1.35 and a player playing 10 minutes is weighted at 1.1. So in other words, a player playing 35 minutes should generally perform 23% better (1.35/1.10) per minute played than a player who plays 10 minutes. This weighting is based on historical averages over the years of the relative per minute ranking of players. So in this game, Dajuan played 35.2 minutes, the 2nd most on the team. Typically a player playing that many minutes should have a higher per minute rating than Dajuan did. His overall rating of 12.2 is decent but not as good as you would normally expect from the guy getting 2nd most minutes on the team.
Actual Rating: This is a super secret formula based on the data from the box score and also the plus-minus. The total team rating is pretty fair but in any given game an individual rating can be a bit skewed if his plus-minus is skewed. Also the rating system is ever so slightly biased to offense.
You can see that even though Ochai played the most minutes and thus had the highest weighted expectation per minute, he still far exceeded that. His rating of 19 is outstanding. The rating compared to the expected also shows that David had a dismal game and that was my subjective eye test assessment as well. David tends to suck the air out of the ball when he is in the game because is is a bit of a black hole inside. The ball often goes in but rarely comes out. If he is hitting 55%+ of his shots, then that is a good thing. If he is hitting under 50% then it is a decidedly bad thing. Also, David has never been a great rebounder for a big man. But he whould get at least 10 per 40 minutes. Tat would put him on the very low end of historical KU big men. Thomas Robinson, for instance, grabbed over 17 per 40 minutes his last season. David had 2 rebounds in 22 minutes played. That equates to 3.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. That is pathetic. David had a bad game. He is capable and this game does not a trend make. He will have some great games this year. Michigan St. is just not one of them.
On a very positive note, (other than the great start by Ochai), all three freshmen performed really well with Pettiford (by virtue of his incredible +/- of 12) was off the charts.
Expected Rating: This is based on a total team rating that would be required to beat the No. 5 ranked team in the country. I just chose No. 5 since that is where KU should generally be. That total team rating is then allocated to individual players based on the minutes played on a sliding scale basis. A player who plays 35 minutes, for example is weighted at 1.35 and a player playing 10 minutes is weighted at 1.1. So in other words, a player playing 35 minutes should generally perform 23% better (1.35/1.10) per minute played than a player who plays 10 minutes. This weighting is based on historical averages over the years of the relative per minute ranking of players. So in this game, Dajuan played 35.2 minutes, the 2nd most on the team. Typically a player playing that many minutes should have a higher per minute rating than Dajuan did. His overall rating of 12.2 is decent but not as good as you would normally expect from the guy getting 2nd most minutes on the team.
Actual Rating: This is a super secret formula based on the data from the box score and also the plus-minus. The total team rating is pretty fair but in any given game an individual rating can be a bit skewed if his plus-minus is skewed. Also the rating system is ever so slightly biased to offense.
You can see that even though Ochai played the most minutes and thus had the highest weighted expectation per minute, he still far exceeded that. His rating of 19 is outstanding. The rating compared to the expected also shows that David had a dismal game and that was my subjective eye test assessment as well. David tends to suck the air out of the ball when he is in the game because is is a bit of a black hole inside. The ball often goes in but rarely comes out. If he is hitting 55%+ of his shots, then that is a good thing. If he is hitting under 50% then it is a decidedly bad thing. Also, David has never been a great rebounder for a big man. But he whould get at least 10 per 40 minutes. Tat would put him on the very low end of historical KU big men. Thomas Robinson, for instance, grabbed over 17 per 40 minutes his last season. David had 2 rebounds in 22 minutes played. That equates to 3.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. That is pathetic. David had a bad game. He is capable and this game does not a trend make. He will have some great games this year. Michigan St. is just not one of them.
On a very positive note, (other than the great start by Ochai), all three freshmen performed really well with Pettiford (by virtue of his incredible +/- of 12) was off the charts.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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