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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Michigan State game
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3 years 2 weeks ago #27599
by asteroid
In my best Ambassador Kosh: "And so it begins."
The first game of the season is always loaded with question marks. With so
many newcomers on the team, it makes it that much harder to predict. But that
doesn't stop the usual suspects from trying. Sagarin has it as a 5-point win
for Kansas; Pomeroy is a hair more optimistic, rounding up to a 6-point win;
Greenfield has it as a 4-point win, just like Vegas (so what else is new?).
Massey is more pessimistic, but still has the Jayhawks eking out a 1-point
win. Dunkel has it as a 2.5-point win. The BPI, which really put on a strong
performance last season, has the margin for Kansas just shy of 4 points. Then
there are the also-rans among the prognosticators; RealTime, who looks like it
just copied the AP poll, has Kansas winning by 8 points, while Seven Overtimes,
who was never high on Kansas last season, has Michigan State on top by 6 points.
Sagarin's Eigenvector analysis apparently needs more to go on, as it was blank
for this game. The usual latecomers to the season are once again absent.
We do have last season's stats for the two teams, courtesy of Greenfield, for
what they're worth.
Greenfield Stats Comparison (from last season)
===========================
Offensive Stats MSU KU Defensive Stats MSU KU
Points/Game 69.4 72.5 Opp Points/Game 71.1 67.4
Avg Score Margin -1.7 +5.0 Opp Effective FG % 48.1 48.0
Assists/Game 15.9 13.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.7 10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.4 37.2 Def Rebounds/Gm 25.4 24.6
Effective FG % 48.1 49.4 Blocks/Game 4.7 3.9
Off Rebound % 29.1 29.6 Steals/Game 4.5 6.8
FTA/FGA 0.313 0.298 Personal Fouls/Gm 19.8 15.5
Turnover % 16.2 14.7
Players to Watch (based on stats from last season)
================
most minutes Aaron Henry (forward)
most points Aaron Henry (forward)
most rebounds Aaron Henry (forward)
most assists Aaron Henry (forward)
most steals Aaron Henry (forward)
most blocks Marcus Bingham (forward)
most turnovers Aaron Henry (forward)
most fouls Joey Hauser (forward)
Hmm; looks like the key to the game might be to control Aaron Henry. Put
Marcus Garrett on him and see if somebody else on the team can step up.
Did I say Marcus Garrett? Wait a minute... Perry Ellis! Uh, no. Mitch
Lightfoot? That's the ticket!
Rankings flagged with an asterisk are from last season. I have no idea how
RealTime is computing a strength of schedule ranking. I suppose one could
look at the future schedule, but I can't imagine the schedule the Jayhawks
are playing would be in the bottom half of Division I.
0-0 0-0
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Michigan St.
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +5.45 73 68 69 # 2 # # 20 #
Sagarin Predictor +5.45 73 68 69 # 2 # # 20 #
Sagarin Golden Mean +5.45 73 68 69 # 2 # # 20 #
Sagarin Recent Games +5.45 73 68 69 # 2 # # 20 #
Sagarin Eigenvector .
Massey +1.00 70 69 53 # 17 # # 31 #
Pomeroy +5.65 75 70 # 3 # # 22 #
Greenfield +4.00 73.5 69.5 # 6 # # 31 #
Dunkel +2.50 71 69 # #
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.00 72.5 68.5
Dolphin Predictive . # 28 # # 62 #
Real Time +8.00 78 70 66.9 # 3 # 191 # 26 # 12
Seven Overtimes -6.00 66 72 36 # 83 # # 15 #
DPPI . # # # #
ESPN BPI +3.80 64.5 # 6 # # 29 #
Whitlock . # 19* # # 58* #
Colley Matrix . # 15* # # 62* #
NCAA NET # 17* # 76*
LRMS # 15* # # 41* #
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +3.73 72.5 69.1 62.1
scatter 3.54 3.0 1.2 11.9
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 20 Michigan State +5.45 0.690
HOME #275 Tarleton State +29.68 0.997
HOME #153 Stony Brook-NY +22.19 0.978
NEUT #122 North Texas +16.62 0.935
NEUT # 78 Dayton +12.35 0.869
NEUT # 92 Miami-Florida +13.40 or 0.888
NEUT # 17 Alabama +5.06 0.677
NEUT # 75 Drake +11.83 or 0.859
NEUT #106 Belmont +14.88 or 0.912
NEUT #174 Iona College +20.81 or 0.971
AWAY # 51 St. John's +5.86 0.703
HOME #179 UTEP +24.23 0.986
HOME # 65 Missouri +14.14 0.901
HOME #132 Stephen F. Austin +20.72 0.970
AWAY # 38 Colorado +4.50 0.659
HOME #115 Harvard +19.23 0.960
HOME # 77 TCU +15.38 0.919
AWAY # 39 Oklahoma State +4.63 0.663
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech +1.68 0.561
HOME #117 Iowa State +19.41 0.961
HOME # 29 West Virginia +9.92 0.816
AWAY # 48 Oklahoma +5.52 0.692
AWAY # 97 Kansas State +10.89 0.839
HOME # 16 Texas Tech +8.12 0.770
HOME # 13 Kentucky +7.40 0.749
AWAY #117 Iowa State +12.97 0.881
HOME # 5 Baylor +5.39 0.688
AWAY # 10 Texas +0.57 0.521
HOME # 48 Oklahoma +11.96 0.862
HOME # 39 Oklahoma State +11.07 0.843
AWAY # 29 West Virginia +3.48 0.624
HOME # 97 Kansas State +17.33 0.942
AWAY # 5 Baylor -1.05 0.462
AWAY # 77 TCU +8.94 0.792
HOME # 10 Texas +7.01 0.738
Here is Michigan State's season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 2 Kansas -5.45 0.310
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3 years 2 weeks ago - 3 years 2 weeks ago #27605
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
"And so it begins..."
Loved the opening quote, asteroid!
BIG Babylon 5 fan here!
Kosh Narenak, Vorlon Ambassador to Babylon 5 (in his encounter suit)
Kosh: I will teach you.
Sheridan: About yourself?
Kosh: About you. Until you are ready.
Sheridan: For what?
Kosh: To fight legends.
Could be Bill Self talking with his players.
NOTE: Babylon 5 (the pilot and all 5 seasons) is currently available on HBOMax in the USA.
Also, The CW has contracted with Warner Brothers (who owns the television rights) and B5 creator, producer and primary writer (the pilot and 92 of 110 episodes) J. Michael Straczynski (JMS; Joe to his friends) to create a new Babylon 5. According to JMS, the new B5 will be a reboot of the show he originally produced.
Space.com: Babylon 5 reboot in development with original series creator J. Michael Straczynski at the helm
Loved the opening quote, asteroid!
BIG Babylon 5 fan here!
Kosh Narenak, Vorlon Ambassador to Babylon 5 (in his encounter suit)
Kosh: I will teach you.
Sheridan: About yourself?
Kosh: About you. Until you are ready.
Sheridan: For what?
Kosh: To fight legends.
Could be Bill Self talking with his players.
NOTE: Babylon 5 (the pilot and all 5 seasons) is currently available on HBOMax in the USA.
Also, The CW has contracted with Warner Brothers (who owns the television rights) and B5 creator, producer and primary writer (the pilot and 92 of 110 episodes) J. Michael Straczynski (JMS; Joe to his friends) to create a new Babylon 5. According to JMS, the new B5 will be a reboot of the show he originally produced.
Space.com: Babylon 5 reboot in development with original series creator J. Michael Straczynski at the helm
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 3 years 2 weeks ago by HawkErrant.
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3 years 1 week ago #27687
by asteroid
I had not heard about the plans for a reboot. Thanks for the news!
Hard to know exactly what is meant by a "reboot". The JJ Abrams reboot of the Star Trek movie franchise involved the same characters, but different actors, and plots that more or less were compatible with existing canon. But each Star Trek episode or movie was basically self-contained. Babylon 5 was a five-year-long story arc that was wrapped up way too fast in season four when it looked like fifth season renewal wasn't going to happen, then we got a bunch of filler episodes in season five when it actually did get renewed. The story has been mostly told (Shadow War, the tyranny of President Clark), though I suppose some tangents could be explored (telepaths).
"Show me your portfolio. Lie to me about your family."
--Susan Ivanova, having human-style sex, ostensibly, with an alien
"Trust yourself. Trust Ivanova. Anyone else, shoot 'em."
--Susan Ivanova
"Peek-a-boo"
--Michael Garibaldi's password
"We have an open door policy."
--Captain Sheridan to ISN reporter
"And an open airlock policy."
--Susan Ivanova
"Commander..."
--Captain Sheridan
Hard to know exactly what is meant by a "reboot". The JJ Abrams reboot of the Star Trek movie franchise involved the same characters, but different actors, and plots that more or less were compatible with existing canon. But each Star Trek episode or movie was basically self-contained. Babylon 5 was a five-year-long story arc that was wrapped up way too fast in season four when it looked like fifth season renewal wasn't going to happen, then we got a bunch of filler episodes in season five when it actually did get renewed. The story has been mostly told (Shadow War, the tyranny of President Clark), though I suppose some tangents could be explored (telepaths).
"Show me your portfolio. Lie to me about your family."
--Susan Ivanova, having human-style sex, ostensibly, with an alien
"Trust yourself. Trust Ivanova. Anyone else, shoot 'em."
--Susan Ivanova
"Peek-a-boo"
--Michael Garibaldi's password
"We have an open door policy."
--Captain Sheridan to ISN reporter
"And an open airlock policy."
--Susan Ivanova
"Commander..."
--Captain Sheridan
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3 years 1 week ago #27691
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Great B5 stuff there, asteroid!
JMS is going to be running the whole shebang and has said that it will be the same novel for TV format but not necessarily an identical show.
Biggest delta I've read about so far is no Sinclair as commander, start right up with Sheridan. Actually a big change when you realize how the whole show had to change when original core character Sinclair was written out.
joe has said he had to change a good bit of his original mapped out 5 year arc for things like people leaving and uncertainty about Season 5 with the PTEN network going out of business (again, the biggie being station commander Sinclair being "reassigned " when Michael O'Hare had to leave the show due to illness and being replaced by Bruce Boxleitner as Captain Sheridan; Joe wrote Lyta Alexander in the pilot for Patricia Tallman, then she wasn't available for the series; Andrea Thompson takes over as the new commercial telepath; Joe had to cut short the romance between Ivanova and Winters when Thompson decided to leave the show, etc.), He hopes to be able to explore the things he originally wanted to do in more depth. I do hope we get to see more on the Telepath Crisis, as it has never been adequately addressed on video and not even in the books about the Psi Corps.
Just have to hope the Joe's got it worked out and can indeed find lightning in a bottle again.
Fingers crossed.
JMS is going to be running the whole shebang and has said that it will be the same novel for TV format but not necessarily an identical show.
Biggest delta I've read about so far is no Sinclair as commander, start right up with Sheridan. Actually a big change when you realize how the whole show had to change when original core character Sinclair was written out.
joe has said he had to change a good bit of his original mapped out 5 year arc for things like people leaving and uncertainty about Season 5 with the PTEN network going out of business (again, the biggie being station commander Sinclair being "reassigned " when Michael O'Hare had to leave the show due to illness and being replaced by Bruce Boxleitner as Captain Sheridan; Joe wrote Lyta Alexander in the pilot for Patricia Tallman, then she wasn't available for the series; Andrea Thompson takes over as the new commercial telepath; Joe had to cut short the romance between Ivanova and Winters when Thompson decided to leave the show, etc.), He hopes to be able to explore the things he originally wanted to do in more depth. I do hope we get to see more on the Telepath Crisis, as it has never been adequately addressed on video and not even in the books about the Psi Corps.
Just have to hope the Joe's got it worked out and can indeed find lightning in a bottle again.
Fingers crossed.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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