KU future planning

If I ever knew this, I had forgotten it.

Did you know that on July 1, 2012 the Big 12 members signed on to the conference through June 30, 2111 (99 years)?

And that Withdrawing Members (WM) who leave the Big12 before then owe an Exit Fee Buyout Amount approximating two years worth of prospective conference distributions the WM would have received were they not leaving? (The estimate I keep seeing being tossed around is roughly $80M, but I think that’s going to be high once the impact of OU/tu leaving really hits).

Note that the Exit Fee is in addition to any media rights $ shares owed to the conference if the WM leaves before the current Grant of Rights (GOR) media contract expires in summer 2025,

IOW, it is going to cost a LOT for KU to leave the Big 12, even if they stay until the current GOR contract expires come summer 2025.

Also know (remember for some) that back in May 2021 “ESPN and FOX, who have 13-year agreements with the Big 12 that run through 2025, aren't ready to talk about a new deal when the ones in place still have four years to go.” Lubbockonline article

Mike Vernon tweeted the following yesterday afternoon.
“If you’re KU, can you:
• Announce intent to leave in 2025?
• Wait it out for money reasons longterm with reason to believe you have safe landing?

Not sure”

Simple answer: it’s not that simple.

My plan? (Comments welcome)

1. Over the ensuing months KU QUIETLY talks with prospective new conference(s) behind the scenes to covertly determine if a new home is available and make arrangements to leave Big 12 in summer 2025.

2. While 1 is underway, QUIETLY work the Big Money Donors to help come up with the Exit Fee Buyout Amount (the fee to leave the conference before 2111) that will need to be paid in 2025 when KU officially leaves the Big 12.

3. Once a new home is informally set, inform the Board of Regents of intent to change conferences and to begin the formal process. Hopefully by this time KState is also trying to hitch its wagon to a new train, making KU’s pitch easier. Regardless …

4. Inform the Big 12 of intent to not sign on to a new Grant of Rights.

5. Ask the prospective new conference for an invitation to join in 2025 when the GOR expires.

6. Get and accept that invitation NLT start of summer 2022.

NB: B1G media contracts are thru 2023, so if they are interested I would think they would want KU signed up and in line to join in summer 2025 for their contract negotiations.

Of course, it might not be the B1G.

All takes I’ve read are ESPN would love KU in the ACC.

And who knows where the Big 12 talks with the PAC-12 will end up?

Here’s a song lyric to help you pass the time while waiting for news of our beloved Jayhawks.

"And I kept on looking for a sign in the middle of the night
But, I couldn't see the light, no, I couldn't see the light
I kept on looking for a way to take me through the night
Couldn't get it right, couldn't get it right"
Climax Blues Band

Illhawk wrote: OU and UT are buying their way out of the conference with the earning stream calculated as if OU and UT were members.

Once that is no longer the case it seems like the buy out of what I'll call the Remaining 8 should be recalibrated, If the departed were half of the value then the exit fee should drop from 80 Mil to 40 Mil. That's still a lot; and an incentive to wait until almost every other member has a forever home before pulling the trigger.

Agreed! Of course, the exit fee is only paid upon actual exit, and by 2025 that may be nada.

However, unless expansion opens up and the oher schools have a shot at being in a Pac 12 East Division I can readily see them staying together and adding other programs (Cincy, Houston, Memphis, whoever else) to keep OU/tu and any other departees on the hook. The Big 12 still has a contractual seat at the Power 5 table, the AAC does not. The Big 12 would drop to the back of the pack, but still be an enticement for other universities to join. And without tu it would be a LOT more stable.