Projecting Next Season's Rotation

It is a little early and we do not know even if Remy, Jalen and Ochai will be back. My guess is all three will be back but it is just that, a guess. At last check there were over 10 million people declaring for the draft. The probability for all three seems to be that they will not be drafted and will be left to try to find the best fit as free agents. That is a possibility, but getting a 2-way contract as an undrafted player is pretty unlikely. So my bet is they will all be back. Until further evidence to the contrary that is the assumption for my analysis.

The No-Brainers
By my analysis, there are two no-brainers. They are David McCormack and Remy Martin. David is a likely contestant for all Big 12 and a longer shot to make the AA team as 3rd string or better. David showed quite amazing steady progression last season. His court presence, decision making and skill levels all showed marked and steady improvement over the course of last season. Barring an injury he will hopefully pick up where he left off. That would put him as a strong contender for all Big 12. He knows Self's system and he has no real competition in the 5 slot. He should be a shoe-in for 25 minutes per game. The only thing that could move that downward toward 20 minutes per game is if Cam Martin and/or Zach Clemence show amazing defensive skills a live up to expectation on offense. My bet is McCormack for 25 MPG.

Remy Martin is the other no-brainer. He is one of the best college point guards and will be a contender for all big 12 1st team and possibly POY in the Big 12. He is also a reasonable candidate for AA. He is a senior so that is huge. While he will new to the Self system, we have generally been very fortunate with upper classmen transferees. Think Kevin Young and Tarik Black. There is a big difference in freshmen and seniors. Plus the young man is loaded with talent. He is not Trae Young but he has that same cross-section of talents. He brings talents we did not have on the team last season. He could very well be the best player on this team this season. He could see up to 35 minutes per game. I would hope we can get it down to 30 to see some other players get court time. Remy is explosive, can get effectively to the basket, can shoot and has a decent court vision to make the other players better. My money would be that Remy leads the team in scoring. He is similar to Devon Dotson. Maybe a better passer. Defense will be the key with him. He will have all the offense we will need.

Likely Starters
This is where the return of Ochai and Jalen are pretty significant. I project those two as the likely starters. Jalen opened last season as a super surprise. Some said he dropped off from that hot start. I disagree. He had a slump in January but then pulled out of it. He was a solid player for us last season. In fact, He was right there with David and Marcus as candidate for MVP of the team. He was not a viable candidate as a scoring option in set plays. In other words, there should not be much offense designed around Jalen. He should be like the 4th or 5th option ideally. We were so pathetically poor offensively ;last season that he was something like our third option. He should be a opportunist on offense picking up points where he can but not by design. What he can do and what we need from him is rebounding and more rebounding and using his solid body to put pressure on opponents. Plus he needs to continue to get better defensively. The only thing that can derail him from starting is bad defense and/or Clemence or Cam Martin showing such incredible offense that we need them on the floor more. I see Jalen likely 20-25 minutes per game, leading the team an rebounding and getting his share of points from opportunity.

Ochai is just Bill's guy. He is a senior and does have a decent shooting stroke and solid defense. I have always thought that Ochai is that 4th or 5th guy on a great team but is not the type of talent you can build a championship team around as a 1st or 2nd option and ideally not even a 3rd option. Offensively he is somewhat of a 1 trick pony as way too easily scouted. He does not shoot off the dribble, heck he doesn't dribble that well. He cannot drive to the basket. He does shoot set shots well and he does have a decent pull-up two pointer. And his defense is very solid although not outstanding. But he is a very solid defender. He is a senior with great team chemistry and is a good teammate and dependable. So he will likely get 20-25 minutes per game.


Next Up
Okay, here is where it gets pretty crowded. Self could very possibly do an 8+ man rotation but I just can't see him using mire than 8+ players. By 8+ I mean 8 guys getting 15+ minutes per game and a 9th guy getting a solid 10-15 per game. With Remy (34), McCormack (26), Wilson (26) and Agbaji (26) we have 88 minutes per game. Starting at point guard we will likely only need 7 minutes per game here. My guess is that Dajuan Harris will get the nod. I am still not sold on Dajuan as a leader and PG on a championship team, but he showed flashes of remarkable defense last season and was progressing offensively as well. Pettiford is the only other reasonable option. He may come in and wow and get some minutes. But I don't see it. Yesufu is another option, but he is not really a PG in the mold of complimentary to Martin. I see Yesufu as more of a 2 man in this scenario. But he may very well be a 2 man that rotates over to 1 for the minutes that Remy sits. But I think Dajuan may be the best defender we have and Self will want to keep him in the rotation just in case something happens to Martin as the season progresses. I will say Dajuan for 7 minutes per game.

Braun is the obvious guy that needs to be discussed. He was a starter for much of the last two seasons. I do love Christian. I would even go as far as to say he is my favorite Jayhawk is some ways. But as much as it pains me to say it, Christian is at a level that makes him a very solid bench player for a great team. He is designed to be that guy that comes off the bench, can knock down a bunch of threes, give a ton of intangibles, play solid defense and have a nose for rebounding 2nd only to Jalen. Braun fills a bunch of utility infield type roles. I love having him on the floor since he is my favorite, but if I am designing a team to be optimally great, he comes off the bench for 18 minutes per game. Looks to shoot off the fast break and rebounds like a banshee and gets a million floor burns hustling like crazy.

Of all the freshmen, Clemence is the most intriguing and I think the most likely to make an impact. That is all speculation at this point. But I really like a big guy who can potentially hit 40+% from three. If his offense is truly as good as hoped and advertised, he will get lots of minutes. He can play 5 in addition to being a natural 4. If his defense is simply decent, he may find himself at 20+ minutes per game. If his defense is crap, he may be under 10. He is the type of guy you design an offense around. He is that guy who could be a No. 1 option by his junior season and possibly even sophomore. He is the biggest upside I see on this team. But he is a freshman and very well may be a bust as well. I'm going to go with 20 minutes per game for Zach.

Cam Martin is the next real wild card. His offense, size, maturity and craftiness may make him the primary backup for David. Cam has a 40+% potential also. He has the potential to be the big surprise on this team. He delivered in spades in D-1. Can he do that in D-1? We will see. His athleticism is limited, nut we have seen plenty of so-so athletes excel in the Big 12. Georges Niang from Iowa St. for instance. He is a senior and smart and experienced and poised. Those are all huge. He could be a huge get for this team. I'm going with 20 minutes per game for Cam. Yes that means we play 2 bigs for significant stretches. But both of these guys are not prototypical bigs. They are stretch bigs and I love that.

Back to Yesufu. He ended the season on a tear with Drake last season. But he did not garner a lot of love from the critics. I'm not sure why. He averaged something like 23 points a game down the stretch. It is safe to say he will not do that next season. But he clearly has some panache and some offensive aggressiveness. If he can play defense, he will be my od's on favorite for the 5th starter. It really depends on how the team gels with the chemistry of Remy, Jalen and Ochai. This kid can get to the rim and has a great handle. I really like that and we need that, we need to be harder to scout. Last season we were an easy scout. We will be far more challenging to scout this season. If Yesufu plays great defense he starts. That is my contention. I will give him 18 minutes per game.

But as if we needed more depth, Self signed Jalen Coleman-Lands. This one is a real tough one. He is a senior (actually he is something like 34 years old) so he has tones of experience, read poise. Plus, supposedly he is solid defender and steady 3-point shooter and proven commodity. I guess if I were a betting man, I would say of Clemence and Yesufu Coleman Lands has by far the lowest ceiling. But he still may end up getting the most minutes and even starting purely from his steady predictability. I
ll go here with 18 minutes per game in hopes that either Yesufu or Clemence meet or exceed the highest hopes.

Okay, here we have;
Remy -- 33
McCormack -- 26
Jalen Wilson -- 26
Ochai -- 26
Harris -- 7
Braun -- 18
Clemence -- 20
Cam Martin -- 20
Coleman-Lands -- 18

That leaves like 5 minutes or so for the usual trash time and spot minutes.

I like KJ Adams. He is that guy who will get better and be a solid contributer over the years. Same with Kyle Cuffe. Unfortunately, in the world we live in, Pettiford will eventually probably transfer if he doesn't get minutes. He will also be a very good player somewhere. But this team is stacked.

My wonderful wife announced dinner was served as I was winding down my original post so I had to quickly wrap it up because I do not tarry when food is served. Thus, I left off Yesufu from the final. I sort of agree with you on Clemence, but his very unique potential has me so hoping he lives up to them. In all likelihood your assessment will be correct. But after being victimized by mobile bigs who can shoot lights out I so desperately want us to have one. Cam may be that guy too. I also agree with you vis-a-vis Ochai. I like Ochai as a young man, but his game sort of frustrates me. As I said, he is really more of a bit player on a really good championship level team. I could easily see him getting 20 minutes per game or a little less. I think it was the Athletic that had an article a month or so ago where other Big 12 coaches were talking about scouting the Jayhawks. It was spot on that our complete lack of speed on the perimeter and inability to effectively get to the rim was a huge problem for us that made us so much easier to defend resulting in the worst offensive team under coach Self las season. And let's face it, Ochai and Christian were two of the huge culprits. Jalen was not much on offense either but the dude is a monster rebounder. I think you can make a case that our best offensive lineup will be;

David McCormack
Cam Martin
Jalen Coleman-Lands
Joseph Yesefu
Remy Martin

That could very well be our starting lineup as well if the defense is there.