preliminary prediction for Eastern Washington game

greenfield stats comparison
===========================
offensive stats      ew      ku      defensive stats      ew      ku
points/game         78.0    72.5     opp points/game     70.0    66.2
avg score margin    +7.9    +6.3     opp effective fg %  47.5    47.0
assists/game        15.0    13.6     off rebounds/gm      6.5    10.2
total rebounds/gm   35.0    37.7     def rebounds/gm     26.0    24.9
effective fg %      54.1    49.7     blocks/game          2.7     4.0
off rebound %       22.1    30.1     steals/game          4.9     6.7
fta/fga            0.304   0.305     personal fouls/gm   17.0    15.4
turnover %          14.9    15.2

kansas has the advantage in just three of the eight offensive categories and in
six of the seven defensive categories.  eastern washington grabs 1.1 more
defensive rebounds per game.

my stats comparison        ku             ew
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.13           +0.81    
inconsistency         11.21            8.68    
trend                 +0.15 ± 0.28    +0.21 ± 0.30
mental toughness      -0.33 ± 0.25    +0.15 ± 0.23
average total pts      138.70         148.00    

common opponents
================
there are no common opponents.  that was easy.

players to watch
================
most minutes       kim aiken jr. (guard)
most points        tanner groves (forward)
most rebounds      kim aiken jr. (guard)
most assists       tyler robertson (guard)
most steals        kim aiken jr. (guard)
most blocks        kim aiken jr. (guard)
most turnovers     tanner groves (forward)
most fouls         tanner groves (forward)

mccormack and enaruna might be back for the game, but wilson is doubtful.

                                                          20-8           16-7
                       margin   predicted   win prb      kansas       east. wash.
predictor              points     score     percent   rating   sos   rating   sos 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
sagarin overall        +12.05   77   65       85       # 10   # 21    #111   #215
sagarin predictor      +11.86   77   65       88.2     # 12   # 21    #111   #215 
sagarin golden mean    +12.31   77   64                # 10   # 21    #112   #215 
sagarin recent games   +11.43   76   65                # 10   # 21    # 82   #215 
sagarin eigenvector    +18.08   80   62       92   
massey                 +10.00   76   66       83       #  9   # 31    #108   #181
pomeroy                +10.37   76   66                # 22   # 20    #110   #236
greenfield             +10.50   77   67                # 10   #  9    #106   #159
dunkel                    .                            #              #                              
vegas (via dunkel)        .                                                      
dolphin predictive     +12.18   79   67       85.5     # 18   # 13    #112   #317
real time               +3.00   69   66       55.2     # 24   # 24    # 90   #270 
seven overtimes         +9.00   76   67       76       # 47   #  9    # 64   #232
dppi                      .                            # 20   # 25    #      #    
espn bpi               +11.80                 85.1     # 19   # 31    #103   #220
whitlock                +8.22                          # 19   # 41    # 94   #201
colley matrix          +14.98                          # 16   # 18    #125   #270
ncaa net                                               # 11           #114
lrmc                                                   # 15   # 24    #127   #228
common opponents        + .       
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                   .       .    .        . 
scatter                   .       .    .        . 

here is kansas' season, for which the current season projection is now 22-9:

site   opponent                         score    predic    error    prob.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
neut   #  1 gonzaga                     90 102    -7.56    -4.44
neut   #200 saint joseph's-pa.          94  72   +18.73    +3.27
neut   # 51 kentucky                    65  62    +4.99    -1.99
div2        washburn                    89  54
home   #162 north dakota state          65  61   +18.08   -14.08
home   # 15 creighton                   73  72    +2.19    -1.19
home   #298 omaha(neb.-omaha)           95  50   +26.91   +18.09
away   # 19 texas tech                  58  57    -0.95    +1.95
home   # 20 west virginia               79  65    +3.32   +10.68
home   # 23 texas                       59  84    +3.71   -28.71
away   #110 tcu                         93  64    +9.61   +19.39
home   # 35 oklahoma                    63  59    +5.47    -1.47
away   # 31 oklahoma state              70  75    +0.97    -5.97
away   #  2 baylor                      69  77    -7.20    -0.80
away   # 35 oklahoma                    68  75    +1.35    -8.35
home   #110 tcu                         59  51   +13.73    -5.73
away   # 14 tennessee                   61  80    -1.95   -17.05
home   #144 kansas state                74  51   +16.85    +6.15
away   # 20 west virginia               79  91    -0.80   -11.20
home   # 31 oklahoma state              78  66    +5.09    +6.91
home   #141 iowa state                  97  64   +16.43   +16.57
away   #141 iowa state                  64  50   +12.31    +1.69
away   #144 kansas state                59  41   +12.73    +5.27
home   # 19 texas tech                  67  61    +3.17    +2.83
away   # 23 texas                       72  75    -0.41    -2.59
home   #  2 baylor                      71  58    -3.08   +16.08
home   #152 utep                        67  62   +17.42   -12.42
neut   # 35 oklahoma                    69  62    +3.41    +3.59
neut   #111 eastern washington                   +11.86             0.882
neut   # 24 southern california                   +1.86             0.567
neut   #  4 iowa                                  -4.31             0.349
neut   #  1 gonzaga                               -7.56             0.248
neut   #  5 michigan                              -4.13             0.355
neut   #  2 baylor                                -5.14             0.313

here is eastern washington's season:

site   opponent                         score    predic    error    prob.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
away   #107 washington state            68  71    -2.55    -0.45
away   # 50 arizona                     67  70    -9.01    +6.01
away   # 34 oregon                      52  69   -10.77    -6.23
naia        college of idado            80  56
away   # 75 saint mary's-cal.           75  80    -5.78    +0.78
away   #313 northern arizona            80  64   +12.36    +3.64
home   #161 southern utah               75  63    +6.20    +5.80
home   #161 southern utah               94  99    +6.20   -11.20
away   #221 northern colorado           76  78    +6.28    -8.28
away   #221 northern colorado           82  76    +6.28    -0.28
home   #261 sacramento state            68  60   +12.53    -4.53
home   #261 sacramento state            94  79   +12.53    +2.47
away   #349 idaho                       89  75   +18.08    -4.08
home   #349 idaho                       90  64   +22.20    +3.80
away   #218 montana state               93  77    +6.16    +9.84
away   #218 montana state               85  69    +6.16    +9.84
home   #188 montana                     90  76    +8.37    +5.63
away   #188 montana                     90  76    +4.25    +9.75
home   #275 idaho state                 63  68   +13.88   -18.88
home   #275 idaho state                 75  62   +13.88    -0.88
neut   #313 northern arizona            66  60   +14.42    -8.42
neut   #188 montana                     78  50    +6.31   +21.69
neut   #218 montana state               65  55    +8.22    +1.78
neut   # 12 kansas                               -11.86             0.118