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3 years 8 months ago - 3 years 8 months ago #26656 by HawkErrant
75 points - The minimum scoring target for KANSAS NCAAT opponents.
Every team that has beaten the Jayhawks this year has scored at least 75 points.

3 - the # of the Top 6 All Time Winningest Programs (Division 1) that Are Dancing
KANSAS, the tarred ones, and Syracuse are in the NCAAT.
After bad years -- historically bad in some cases -- the Lexington school, Duke and Temple are not in the NCAAT *or* the NIT.

5 and 6 - the number of wins that KANSAS needs to tie and then pass the Lexington school in All Time Wins.
Dare we dream?

49 - the number of NCAA Tournament appearances for KANSAS
KANSAS is 108-47 overall in the event, having made 31 Sweet 16s and 15 Final Fours, and earned three of its five national championships (1952, 1988, 2008) in NCAAT play.
TOP 10 PROGRAMS EARNING NCAA BIDS and SUCCESS MARKERS
.   Bids..by	   Most recent  Sweet 16   Elite 8    Final 4   Finals    Champions	
R   #  School	   Bid   Win	Last   #   Last  #    Last  #	Last  #	  Last   #
1.  58 tLs*        2019  2019	2019  44   2019	38    2015 17	2014 12	  2012   8
2.  51 tarred ones 2021  2019	2019  34   2017	28    2017 20	2017 11	  2017   6
3.  49 KANSAS	   2021  2019	2018  31   2018	24    2018 15	2012  9	  2008   3
4.  48 UCLA*	   2021  2017	2017  33   2008	21    2008 17	2006 12	  1995  11
5.  43 Duke	   2019  2019	2019  31   2019	22    2015 16	2015 11	  2015   5
6.  41 Syracuse*   2021  2018	2018  23   2016	10    2016  6	2003  3	  2003   1
7.  39 Indiana	   2016  2016	2016  22   2002	11    2002  8	2002  6	  1987   5
8.  39 Louisville* 2019  2017	2009  24   2009	11    2005  8	1986  2	  1986   2
9.  39 Villanova*  2021  2019	2018  17   2018	13    2018  5	2018  3	  2018   3
10. 36 Notre Dame  2017  2017   2016  17   2016	 7    1978  1				
*Flagged programs have vacated games and titles. See the source page at Wikipedia: NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament bids by school

31 - consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances,
Beginning in 1990, it is both the longest active appearances streak and the longest such streak in NCAAT history.

20 - consecutive seasons KANSAS has earned a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Seeding the NCAAT teams began in 1979, and starting in 2001 -- and remembering that last year's NCAAT, where KANSAS was going to be the overall #1 seed, was cancelled due to COVID-19 -- KANSAS has earned
9 One seeds
4 Two seeds
3 Three seeds and
4 Four seeds

KANSAS SEEDS in its NCAAT HISTORY (seeding began in 1979)
Year  '81  '84  '85  '86  '87  '88  '89  '90  '91  '92  '93  '94  '95  
Seed	7    5    3    1    5    6    -    2    3    1    2    4    1    

Year  '96  '97  '98  '99  '00  '01  '02  '03  '04  '05  '06  '07  '08  
Seed	2    1    1    6    8    4    1    2    4    3    4    1    1    

Year  '09  '10  '11  '12  '13  '14  '15  '16  '17  '18  '19  '20  '21	
Seed	3    1*   1    2    1    2    2    1*   1    1    4   NT    3	

KANSAS failed to make the field in '79, '80, '82 and '83, so those 
years are not listed. 
The NCAA banned KANSAS for the '89 postseason.(1) 
* indicates overall #1 Seed
NT - no tournament due to COVID-19. KU was #1 in the Final 2020 AP poll, 
  Coaches poll, KenPom, Sagarin, NET, BPI, RPI & DPPI, and would have 
  been the overall #1 Seed.
(1) :angry:

8 - the number of programs that have won at least three NCAA Tournaments.
The Jayhawks won the NCAA crown in 1952, 1988 and 2008.
The list of 8...
11 - UCLA
8 - the Lexington school (with 1 earned in 2012 holding off a late charging Jayhawks team :( )
6 - the tarred ones (including the classic 1957 Triple OT game against Wilt and KANSAS :( )
5 - Indiana (including two earned by defeating Phog teams in the 1940 & 1953 NC games :( )
5 - Duke (including 1991 over Adonis, Alonzo, Mark Randall and RICHARD SCOTT! :()
4 - Connecticut
3 - Kansas (1952 d St. John's; 1988 d Oklahoma and 2008 d Memphis in OT)
3 - Villanova
The odds are against it this tournament, but wouldn't it be nice to put up another banner and pass the Lexington school in ATWs at the same time?

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 3 years 8 months ago by HawkErrant. Reason: reformatted for smartphone display.
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3 years 8 months ago #26657 by konza63
My favorite tidbit:

5 and 6 - the number of wins that KANSAS needs to tie and then pass the Lexington school in All Time Wins.
Dare we dream?


I like - nay, love - the way you think! B)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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3 years 8 months ago #26658 by CorpusJayhawk
Great stuff HE. Here are a few more tidbits.

1. 6 wins to pass Kentucky for all-time wins, yes, but 6 wins will also tie Duke at 114 for tournament wins. Kentucky leads at 131 followed by UNC at 126. KU at 108 currently.

2. A final Four would also tie us with Duke at 16. KU currently in 5th behind UNC @ 20, UCLA @ 18, Kentucky at 17, Duke at 16 and Kansas at 15.

3. If KU goes to the NC game, Bill Self will tie Lute Olson with 74 total tournament games passing Izzo (maybe) at 73, Pitino at 73 (well he would probably tie Pitino), Jim Calhoun at 71 and Bob Knight at 70. 74 would tie him for 6th most all time games.

4. Self is currently 9th in total tourney wins with 48. He could potentially move to a tie for 6th with 6 wins. Again he would pass Jim Calhoun and Tom Izzo. (52 and 51 respectively).

5. With a win Saturday, Self will break a tie for most round of 64 wins with Calipari at 19.

6. Historical probabilities for a 3 seed is to win 1.83 games. If Self wins 2 games he will gain on the net probable wins for his career. And he needs to since he is one of the few elite coaches with a negative net probable wins in the NCAA. Self has won 48 games in the NCAA. But when you look at the seed matchups of the 68 games he has coached in, his teams should have won 49.6 games. So he is 1.6 games under his probabilistic projection. Of the 29 coaches who have coached in at least 40 games, only 6 have a negative net probability record. By far the best is John Wooden who won 10.5 more games than the probability projection or 129% of the projected wins. The worst is Rick Barnes at 80% of projected wins. Here is the compete list. The column farthest to the right is the net probability wins (losses). The column 2nd from the right is the % of projected probable wins. I love Self but there is no argument that he has underperformed in the NCAA. He has been amazing at getting into the NCAA with a great seed. Here is his net probable wins by round

Rd of 64: 0.4
Rd of 32: -0.7
Sweet 16: 1.3
Elite 8: -3.1
Final Four: 0.5
NC: 0.1


Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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3 years 8 months ago #26659 by big g
great data HE, love it! btw saw an interesting tweet last few days that said over selfs entire career at KU his average seed has been 1.92! (assuming a one last yr). cant be anyone else close to that, can there? g
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3 years 8 months ago #26660 by HawkErrant

CorpusJayhawk wrote: Great stuff HE. Here are a few more tidbits.
...
Rd of 64: 0.4
Rd of 32: -0.7
Sweet 16: 1.3
Elite 8: -3.1
Final Four: 0.5
NC: 0.1
...


Yeah, Corpus, as your data indicates his Bane is the E8. :dry: :unsure: :huh: :pinch:

If he can just get his teams past that 3rd game...

Still, I'll take him over anyone else until John Wooden's reincarnation arrives.:whistle:

big g, to your question, I don't know, so I'll try passing the Hawk to Corpus!:woohoo:

Oh, BTW, please note that when you are always getting such high seeds, you basically have little upside and lots of downside when it comes to performance evaluation.

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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3 years 8 months ago #26666 by CorpusJayhawk
That's a chip shot. This is the data through 2019. If you add in KU as a 1 seed last season their average would be 2.00 the same as Duke. UNC is closest at 2.94 but they missed a season. Virginia is a respectable 3.22 but they only made 8 of the 16 seasons. Kentucky is 4.14 but they missed 2 seasons. Seriously, over the last 18 seasons, no one can compare to Duke and Kansas. And if you look at wins. Since Self has been at Kansas, they lead the nation in wins. Below is the wins and losses since 2004 up through current. You can see that Self is clearly the king of the hill. Considering SOS, this is amazing.




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3 years 8 months ago #26667 by big g
thx corpus! these to me are the most important ways to assess programs and coaches, avg seed and total wins. if you have it total tournament wins over the 16 years wld be interesting as well. wins vs expectation for consistently high seeded pgm is meaningless to me. ku and duke dominance is stunning really. i do think tho in the years when teams dont make the tournament the seeding shld default to 68
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3 years 8 months ago #26668 by big g
sorry not 68 obvi, 17

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3 years 8 months ago #26669 by CorpusJayhawk
Big g I've got ya covered. I now have my DPPI run all the way back to 1950. I've included the average rating and the average ranking. Since Self has been at Kansas (including this season) Kanas has averaged being ranked 6.4 in the country. That is mind boggling. Duke is next at 8.7. Then it really starts to fall off. This would equate to roughly a 1.6 seed. Seeding is just binning. An actual rank is more telling and a rating is even better still. No matter how you slice it, this is pretty amazing. For a frame of reference, Baylor is rated at 84.5 this season and ranked 5th in the country in my DPPI. And that is KU's average for the last 18 seasons. Simply mind-boggling.


Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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3 years 8 months ago #26671 by LKF_HAWK
Appreciate the tidbits, but if KU finds 8 more measly points, KU has 6 not 3 NCAA championships..cruel fates of the basketball gods.. Seriously, what have the good basketball folks at KU done to suffer so much heartbreak in the championship game, 2 losses by 1 pt and 12-30 FT’s...

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3 years 8 months ago #26686 by big g
great work corpus! thank you! ku and self are even more amazing than i thought from just the eye test. on top of this we pass kentucky next year in wins ltd and we go to final four with everyone back, as long as we are eligible. ironic that we will be penalized primarily for silvio and we can't even use him saturday when we cld really use him! oh well thats life

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3 years 8 months ago #26688 by konza63
Great stuff, Corpus. And using your stats, here’s how many wins KU has gained on all the premier bluebloods since 2004:

KU > Duke: +14
KU > UNC: +36
KU > UK: +43

Que impresivo! :-)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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3 years 8 months ago - 3 years 8 months ago #26689 by konza63
LKF_HAWK:

:(

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 3 years 8 months ago by konza63.

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