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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
- asteroid
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3 years 8 months ago #26606
by asteroid
The rubber match.
All but one of the usual prognosticators have picked Kansas. The pessimist is
Dunkel, who has the Sooners by 4.5 points, despite their recent performance.
Maybe he thinks the Jayhawks are too heavily dependent on McCormack. The
optimist is Sagarin Recent Games, which has the Jayhawks by 8.4 points. The
average is 3.5 points, with a scatter of 2.6 points.
There is no indication of where McCormack or Eranura might have been exposed.
They are roommates, so it makes sense that both of them would be going through
virus protocol right now. But they are expected to be back for the Big Dance,
so if the quarantine period is two weeks, then it would seem that the exposure
would have been around the time of the UTEP game. I haven't heard of any
public second-guessing for scheduling that game, but who knows what is going
on internally.
Oklahoma snapped their losing streak against Iowa State, but it was a
two-possession game with seconds to play, That's now five consecutive
below-expectation performances by the Sooners, and just a point away from
six consecutive. Their trend is negative, as is their mental toughness
rating, though neither is statistically significant. Kansas still has a
positive trend, though that was blunted by the UTEP game. The negative
mental toughness rating for Kansas will work against the Jayhawks pretty
much from here on out, as all the opponents are going to be strong.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 75.3 72.7 Opp Points/Game 69.2 66.3
Avg Score Margin +6.0 +6.3 Opp Effective FG % 48.7 46.7
Assists/Game 13.4 13.7 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.8 10.4
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.4 38.1 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.8 25.1
Effective FG % 50.6 49.6 Blocks/Game 3.4 4.2
Off Rebound % 26.0 30.5 Steals/Game 7.4 6.6
FTA/FGA 0.294 0.309 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.5 15.7
Turnover % 13.4 15.2
Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight offensive categories and in
five of the seven defensive categories.
My Stats Comparison KU OU
=================== ============= ============
Performance 0.00 +0.66
Inconsistency 11.50 10.46
Trend +0.14 ± 0.31 -0.27 ± 0.31
Mental toughness -0.29 ± 0.25 -0.10 ± 0.22
Average total pts 139.00 144.54
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference. Oklahoma fell one game shy
of a full conference slate, missing their home game with Baylor. For the other
seven, I will use only the home-home and road-road permutations. Oklahoma does
have the third game against Iowa State yesterday, giving us twenty scores to
compare:
KU +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court) KU +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
OU +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral court) OU +36 TCU at home (+32 neutral court)
KU +25 OU neutral (+25 neutral court) KU -28 OU neutral (-28 neutral court)
KU +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court) KU +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OU -2 TTU at home ( -6 neutral court) OU -5 TTU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU +8 OU neutral ( +8 neutral court) KU +6 OU neutral ( +6 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court) KU -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)
OU +4 WVU at home ( 0 neutral court) OU +1 WVU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU +10 OU neutral (+10 neutral court) KU -13 OU neutral (-13 neutral court)
KU -8 BU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU +13 BU at home ( +9 neutral court)
OU -15 BU on road (-11 neutral court) OU -15 BU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU +7 OU neutral ( +7 neutral court) KU +20 OU neutral (+20 neutral court)
KU +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court) KU +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral court)
OU +26 KSU at home (+22 neutral court) OU -5 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU -3 OU neutral ( -3 neutral court) KU +23 OU neutral (+23 neutral court)
KU -5 UT on road ( -1 neutral court) KU -25 UT at home (-29 neutral court)
OU +1 UT on road ( +5 neutral court) KU -4 UT at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU -6 OU neutral ( -6 neutral court) KU -21 OU neutral (-21 neutral court)
KU +33 ISU at home (+29 neutral court) KU +14 ISU on road (+18 neutral court)
OU +7 ISU at home ( +3 neutral court) OU +10 ISU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU +26 OU neutral (+26 neutral court) KU +4 OU neutral ( +4 neutral court)
KU +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court) KU -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
OU -4 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court) OU -4 OSU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU +16 OU neutral (+16 neutral court) KU -1 OU neutral ( -1 neutral court)
KU +33 ISU at home (+29 neutral court) KU +14 ISU on road (+18 neutral court)
OU +6 ISU neutral ( +6 neutral court) OU +6 ISU neutral ( +6 neutral court)
KU +23 OU neutral (+23 neutral court) KU +12 OU neutral (+12 neutral court)
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU -7 OU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU 0 OU neutral ( 0 neutral court) KU -3 OU neutral ( -3 neutral court)
The average is 5.25 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 15.1 points.
Reduce the home court advantage to just 2 points, and the average becomes 6.45 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Austin Reaves (guard)
most points Austin Reaves (guard)
most rebounds Austin Reaves (guard)
most assists Austin Reaves (guard)
most steals Elijah Harkless (guard)
most blocks Kur Kuath (forward)
most turnovers Austin Reaves (guard)
most fouls Elijah Harkless (guard)
Put Garrett on Reaves, and that should give the Jayhawks the best shot at winning.
Curiously, Greenfield's injury report shows only Enaruna in virus protocol, not
McCormack.
19-8 15-9
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +3.70 71 68 64 # 10 # 17 # 34 # 44
Sagarin Predictor +3.00 71 68 60.8 # 11 # 17 # 32 # 44
Sagarin Golden Mean +3.95 72 68 # 10 # 17 # 37 # 44
Sagarin Recent Games +8.42 74 65 # 7 # 17 # 56 # 44
Sagarin Eigenvector +4.67 72 67 67
Massey +5.00 72 67 70 # 10 # 32 # 34 # 44
Pomeroy +2.72 68 65 # 21 # 21 # 38 # 50
Greenfield +3.00 70 67 # 12 # 7 # 27 # 25
Dunkel -4.50 62 67 # 18 # 37
Vegas (via Dunkel) +3.50 71 67
Dolphin Predictive +3.14 70 67 61.1 # 20 # 13 # 40 # 36
Real Time +1.00 68 67 51.4 # 26 # 22 # 67 # 27
Seven Overtimes +4.00 70 66 71 # 76 # 9 # 86 # 29
DPPI +3.00 71 68 60.2 # 20 # 25 # 42 # 56
ESPN BPI +4.10 65.6 # 21 # 27 # 31 # 46
Whitlock +2.71 # 20 # 40 # 41 # 43
Colley Matrix +4.99 # 21 # 16 # 45 # 28
NCAA NET # 13 # 36
LRMC # 17 # 25 # 46 # 55
common opponents +6.45
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +3.49 70.1 66.9 63.5
scatter 2.57 2.8 1.0 6.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is now 20-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Gonzaga 90 102 -7.78 -4.22
NEUT #203 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +18.91 +3.09
NEUT # 51 Kentucky 65 62 +4.74 -1.74
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #162 North Dakota State 65 61 +17.89 -13.89
HOME # 14 Creighton 73 72 +2.23 -1.23
HOME #297 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +26.87 +18.13
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech 58 57 -1.59 +2.59
HOME # 19 West Virginia 79 65 +2.68 +11.32
HOME # 24 Texas 59 84 +3.76 -28.76
AWAY #106 TCU 93 64 +9.23 +19.77
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 63 59 +5.05 -1.05
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State 70 75 +1.08 -6.08
AWAY # 2 Baylor 69 77 -8.34 +0.34
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 68 75 +0.95 -7.95
HOME #106 TCU 59 51 +13.33 -5.33
AWAY # 12 Tennessee 61 80 -2.04 -16.96
HOME #147 Kansas State 74 51 +16.93 +6.07
AWAY # 19 West Virginia 79 91 -1.42 -10.58
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State 78 66 +5.18 +6.82
HOME #138 Iowa State 97 64 +16.14 +16.86
AWAY #138 Iowa State 64 50 +12.04 +1.96
AWAY #147 Kansas State 59 41 +12.83 +5.17
HOME # 18 Texas Tech 67 61 +2.51 +3.49
AWAY # 24 Texas 72 75 -0.34 -2.66
HOME # 2 Baylor 71 58 -4.24 +17.24
HOME #154 UTEP 67 62 +17.46 -12.46
NEUT # 32 Oklahoma +3.00 0.608
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #178 UTSA 105 66 +16.37 +22.63
AWAY #106 TCU 82 78 +6.23 -2.23
AWAY # 57 Xavier-Ohio 77 99 +0.79 -22.79
HOME #305 Florida A&M 85 54 +24.48 +6.52
HOME #159 Oral Roberts 79 65 +14.68 -0.68
HOME #344 Houston Baptist 84 65 +29.55 -10.55
HOME # 18 Texas Tech 67 69 -0.49 -1.51
HOME # 19 West Virginia 75 71 -0.32 +4.32
AWAY # 2 Baylor 61 76 -11.34 -3.66
AWAY # 11 Kansas 59 63 -5.05 +1.05
HOME #106 TCU 82 46 +10.33 +25.67
HOME #147 Kansas State 76 50 +13.93 +12.07
HOME # 11 Kansas 75 68 -0.95 +7.95
AWAY # 24 Texas 80 79 -3.34 +4.34
HOME # 13 Alabama 66 61 -0.86 +5.86
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech 52 57 -4.59 -0.41
HOME #138 Iowa State 79 72 +13.14 -6.14
AWAY # 19 West Virginia 91 90 -4.42 +5.42
AWAY #138 Iowa State 66 56 +9.04 +0.96
AWAY #147 Kansas State 57 62 +9.83 -14.83
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State 90 94 +2.18 -6.18
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State 75 79 -1.92 -2.08
HOME # 24 Texas 65 69 +0.76 -4.76
NEUT #138 Iowa State 79 73 +11.09 -5.09
NEUT # 11 Kansas -3.00 0.392
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, LadyHawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk
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