Interesting interview

To just put it all out there right up front, my "eye test" tells me that a KU team heading into the gauntlet of March Madness that still features a stream of Lucas, Traylor, and Mickelson (or one thereof) as the complement to Ellis will have a tough time making it to the final game, much less cutting down the nets. That's just what my basketball gut tells me at this juncture, despite the fact (reality) that there are no truly great teams in the NCAA field this year.

It ultimately comes down to this: Do you continue to play to your ceiling and comfort zone (with the seasoned guys) so you win more regular season games, or do you play to your upside and temporarily uncomfortable zone (with Diallo and Bragg) so that you have a better shot to win it all come April?

With the seasoned guys, our margin for error will be slim to none against the best teams (who will have rounded out and stepped up their games) by April. And it doesn't have to be a zero-sum thing. In other words, it's not like the seasoned guys won't get any minutes--it's just that you're reversing the distribution that we have now, so that the bulk of the minutes go to the upside/younger/more athletic guys rather than the other way around.

Here are some fascinating numbers that underscore just how much KU is truly an anomaly this season when it comes to being willing and committed to playing/developing its elite big-man talent. Of the fourteen 2015 ESPN top 30 freshman recruits now playing at the Center or Power Forward positions for the various schools, our two guys (Diallo and Bragg) rank second and third to last, respectively, in average minutes per game. Diallo is only playing 9.5 MPG, Bragg is getting 11.2, and the only player among all of the acclaimed top 30 freshmen in those positions getting less is Chase Jeter of Duke, at 8.1. By contrast, here's what the others are getting:

Ben Simmons, LSU PF: 33.8
Henry Ellenson, Marquette PF: 32.3
Diamond Stone, Maryland C: 20.7
Skal Labissiere, Kentucky C: 17.8
Ivan Rabb, Cal PF: 26.5
Caleb Swanigan, Purdue C: 26.3
Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV C: 24.4
Thomas Bryant, Indiana C: 22.5
Deyonta Davis, Michigan State PF: 17.6
Dedric Lawson, Memphis PF: 29.8
Tyler Davis, Texas A&M C: 21.1

Looking at those numbers, we can see that most players are logging 20+ minutes per game. Indeed, for that set of 12 players (excluding Bragg and Diallo but including the other anomaly--Jeter at Duke), the average MPG is 23.4... The delta between that figure and Diallo and Bragg's minutes (again, 9.5 and 11.2, respectively) is simply staggering.

This tells me that something is very much amiss...all the more so since Self has exhibited palpable uncertainty about who can man the 5 spot most effectively all season long. At a minimum, it raises some intriguing questions:

* Are both Bragg and Diallo recruiting duds, relative to their high-level recruit peer group? In other words, did the KU staff whiff in this class?

[When I saw that freshman center Diamond Stone of Maryland--rated only one slot ahead of Diallo at #6 among all incoming recruits--put up 39 in a game that Maryland otherwise might have lost a couple weeks ago, it does make you shake your head...]

* Were Bragg and Diallo instead just overrated, and their development is going to be more of a 2-year process than a 1-year breakout?

[Personally I find that hard to believe with Bragg, who was the best player in Cleveland high school/AAU ball...but perhaps it could be true of Diallo, in that he's still learning the game and he had his development path disrupted by NCAA knuckle-dragging at the start of the season]

* Is Self too wedded to his comfort zone--in this case, to defaulting routinely to his more known and veteran bigs, even when he himself exhibits frustration at their ability to step up and be a force opposite Perry? And if he is, does that represent a "blind spot" of sorts--that is, an imperative to win in the present, at the expense of building a potentially more explosive team in March-April?

* Has something gone awry with KU's ability to successfully train (and ramp up the development of) our big men?

[We saw this last year with Cliff, and the gap between incoming expectations and game play for both Diallo and Bragg is considerable. To rehash an ongoing question from the past for the board, did the departure of Danny and Dooley fundamentally impact our ability to train elite bigs?]

* What does Self see with Mickelson's play (in practice or on the court) that makes him reluctant to give him ample more minutes?

[The general sense among observers, to include the data/analytics crowd, is he should get more time on the floor if Diallo and Bragg are not going to, just to see if he is the last hope among our seasoned bigs to become a very capable offensive and defensive player opposite Perry]

* If Self does ultimately decide to go more with Diallo and Bragg (or one thereof), can we all live with the potential ups and downs and the possibly negative impact on KU's regular season success?

[Let's be honest--Diallo and Bragg also make us all cringe at times, just like our experienced guys. So it's a pick your poison situation. And we might have to suffer through some losses in order to get them the experience and "team gelling" time they need. I wish this had happened earlier, before the slate of more competitive games, but it is what it is...]

I'm sure there are other questions I missed, but those are the ones that jump out to me. And keep in mind a few things before you and others throw your "How dare you!" and "Self is God" darts at me:

* I love Bill Self and wouldn't trade him for any other coach. My past posts on here, including probably the most exhaustive look at his wining prowess ever posted on this board (his potential to reach Coach K's heights in wins one day), underscore this point. But he's human, we're fans, and this is a legitimate question mark with our team.

* My post is put forth strictly in the context of competing for and potentially winning a national championship, not about doing great in the Big 12, etc. It's about avoiding an early exit in March-April that sadly has been our fate of late.

* Even if we don't make changes and shift toward upside development, we'll still win a ton of games, possibly win the Big 12 championship, and get a nice tourney seed. It's what comes after that that sticking with the status quo approach (what we've tried so far this season) scares me. And speaking for me, a flameout this year (given the IMMENSE talent on this roster, combined with the experience in our backcourt and with Ellis) would be a huge, huge, huge disappointment. All the more so since the national competition is such that this year's crown is very winnable in comparison to some seasons when there's a clear juggernaut in our path (see: 2011-2012).

* This is just opinion, and it's meant to provoke as much as anything else. We might as well talk about something other than sleepwalking games with TCU!

Thoughts/reactions/counter-perspectives welcome. Let's discuss...

I wouldn't single out Lucas among that group. I'd single out Traylor. What in the world does he give us (save the elusive "energy" that gets thrown around) when he's on the floor with Perry? I would submit "nothing." He's not a rim protector. He has zero offense to draw defenders away from Perry. He's not a super tall guy who rebounds well. He cannot hit a simple bunny to save his soul. He turns the ball over way too much.

I like Jamari's story and welcome him as a Jayhawk, but I honestly think he should only be playing for scrap minutes. That alone would give us 14 minutes to add to Diallo and Bragg. Keep going up from there... And to your broader point, where is it written that we have to proportion the available 50 minutes across all five guys, much less get each close to 10 per game? (My question is as much about future MPG as a goal, as much as what's gone on heretofore)

Understood on the minutes distribution thing--thanks.

RE Jamari, that's a good point. But then when he's in as a bruiser, you lose other aspects (as mentioned before--his weaknesses). Same with all the other guys, I guess, which makes you want to "hybridize" them all into one complete player, LOL.

What scares me is when Self says we have to "play through Perry in the paint." That seems to be what Coach wants the team to do more than anything, when to my mind Perry will never be the consistent go-to guy inside with the trees. He's a tweener and good role-playing scorer (in a balanced attack) who can get inside on occasion. But typically that comes as an "augmentative" part of his game--i.e., when he's doing some damage after starting outside a bit.

I feel like our biggest gap right now is a) a strong scoring threat opposite Perry that will draw some attention and open up the better aspects of Perry's game; and b) a solid rim protector that can make opposing guards pay after they get by our frontline guard defense (which they are still doing this year with some disturbing tendency). With those two aspects in mind, regarding your 50 minutes distribution angle, I'd personally like to see us moving more toward this in the future: Mickelson 15, Diallo 15, Bragg 10, Lucas/Traylor 10. Give Mick and Cheick sufficient playing time at the 5 to try and get in grooves. And if one really separates himself from the other (in the two aspects I mentioned above), then maybe you start adding even more minutes to his game. (I don't know...just a provocative thought)

Agree on the dialogue on having a good discussion here. And I hope my last post didn't sound like I was putting you on the defensive. I had to tap that out quickly and send it, just given workload today.

What do others think on this?