Big 12 roundup

The next opponents for Baylor and Kansas are speculative, perhaps more for Baylor than Kansas.
Then again, Oklahoma is on a four-game losing streak.  Two weeks ago, they were in second place
and projected to win 12 conference games.  They finished with just 9 wins and have to play on
Wednesday.  Then again, the last team they defeated was Iowa State, and in Ames.  If the Sooners
can survive Hilton South, we'll get a more tired Sooner team on Thursday.  Interesting that Texas
is not projected to advance.

                       Feb21  
Pred                   Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team     Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- -------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Baylor           16.7    13  1   TCU (Th)   BU  by 17.1
# 10  Kansas           11.8    12  6   OU  (Th)   KU  by  2.9
# 23  Texas             9.9    11  6   TTU (Th)   
# 19  West Virginia    11.8    11  6   OSU (Th)   WVU by  2.4
# 33  Oklahoma State    8.5    11  7   WVU (Th)   
# 18  Texas Tech       10.0     9  8   UT  (Th)   TTU by  1.3
# 30  Oklahoma         12.0     9  8   ISU (We)   OU  by 11.4
# 94  TCU               5.5     5 11   KSU (We)   TCU by  4.5
#152  Kansas State      2.6     4 14   TCU (We)   
#137  Iowa State        1.2     0 18   OU  (We)   

48 percent of games were road wins, close to zero home advantage.  Compare with 33 percent
in a normal year.  At some point I'll probably do the full home court advantage analysis, but with
five games not getting played, four involving Baylor (plus TCU and Texas Tech), the analysis won't
be as robust as for previous seasons.

Road wins (41 out of 85)                     Home losses                                           RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- -------
7 Baylor         KSU ISU TCU TTU OSU UT  WVU 0 Baylor                                             +7 BU
6 Texas          KU  WVU KSU ISU OU  TCU     1 Kansas         UT                                  +3 KU 
6 West Virginia  OSU KSU ISU TTU UT  TCU     3 Oklahoma       TTU OSU UT                          +2 OSU
5 Oklahoma State TTU KSU ISU OU  WVU         3 Oklahoma State TCU WVU BU                          +2 UT
4 Kansas         TTU TCU ISU KSU             4 Texas          TT  OU  BU  WVU                     +2 WVU
4 Oklahoma       TCU UT  WVU ISU             4 Texas Tech     KU  OSU BU  WVU                     +1 OU
4 Texas Tech     OU  ISU UT  KSU             4 West Virginia  UT  OU  BU  OSU                      0 TTU
3 TCU            OSU KSU ISU                 6 TCU            OU  KU  BU  KSU WVU UT              -3 TCU           
2 Kansas State   ISU TCU                     7 Kansas State   BU  TCU OSU WVU TTU UT  KU          -5 KSU
0 Iowa State                                 9 Iowa State     KSU BU  TTU OSU WVU KU  OU  TCU UT  -9 ISU

How far will Kansas advance in March Madness?  That huge inconsistency factor makes it
particularly difficult to predict.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +2.79    West Virginia     6.77
Texas           +1.30    Oklahoma State    6.98
Oklahoma        +0.76    Texas Tech        8.24
Texas Tech      +0.62    Texas             8.87
Oklahoma State  +0.43    TCU               9.31
Kansas          +0.01    Kansas State      9.48
West Virginia   -0.02    Baylor            9.89
TCU             -1.84    Iowa State       10.48
Kansas State    -1.88    Oklahoma         10.64
Iowa State      -2.85    Kansas           11.47

Hate seeing Kansas at the bottom of the mental toughness ratings.  It can help when facing
a weaker opponent, but those aren't going to happen in the Big Dance.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Kansas State    +0.36 +/- 0.24    Oklahoma State  +0.28 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  +0.31 +/- 0.19    Iowa State      +0.17 +/- 0.21
Kansas          +0.14 +/- 0.30    West Virginia   +0.05 +/- 0.21
Iowa State      +0.04 +/- 0.34    Texas           +0.03 +/- 0.23
West Virginia   -0.05 +/- 0.18    TCU             +0.01 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech      -0.16 +/- 0.22    Baylor          -0.07 +/- 0.19
TCU             -0.19 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma        -0.10 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma        -0.24 +/- 0.34    Kansas State    -0.19 +/- 0.19
Texas           -0.29 +/- 0.26    Texas Tech      -0.24 +/- 0.13
Baylor          -0.52 +/- 0.32    Kansas          -0.30 +/- 0.25

Interesting how the scoring margin mimics the final standings for the top and bottom, but
not the middle.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          85.05   Texas Tech      63.81   Baylor          150.91   Baylor          +19.18
West Virginia   77.38   Baylor          65.86   West Virginia   149.73   Texas Tech       +8.96
Oklahoma State  76.52   Kansas          66.58   Oklahoma State  148.88   Texas            +5.88
Oklahoma        74.87   Texas           68.62   Oklahoma        144.22   Kansas           +5.85
Texas           74.50   Oklahoma        69.35   Texas           143.12   Oklahoma         +5.52
Texas Tech      72.77   Kansas State    71.08   Iowa State      141.78   West Virginia    +5.04
Kansas          72.72   TCU             71.64   Kansas          139.00   Oklahoma State   +4.16
TCU             67.12   West Virginia   72.35   TCU             138.76   TCU              -4.52
Iowa State      65.17   Oklahoma State  72.36   Texas Tech      136.58   Kansas State    -10.73
Kansas State    60.35   Iowa State      76.61   Kansas State    131.42   Iowa State      -11.43

I suspect the only reason Iowa State is ahead of Kansas in schedule strength is because the
Cyclones did NOT have to play themselves and DID have to play Kansas.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Iowa State      83.57 ( 5)
Kansas          82.14 (17)
West Virginia   81.71 (20)
Oklahoma State  81.50 (25)
Texas           81.43 (27)
Kansas State    81.09 (34)
Oklahoma        80.85 (37)
TCU             80.00 (47)
Texas Tech      79.48 (53)
Baylor          78.46 (67)