predictions for UTEP game

Let me start off by saying that if anybody gets hurt or infected, there will be
lots of second-guessing about playing this game.  But it does give Kansas a
chance to gain some ground on Kentucky in the all-time wins category, to extend
the latest home winning streak, and perhaps improve their seeding in the Big
Dance, while also avoiding the fate of Baylor's long lay-off, which had the
Bears looking rather rusty against Iowa State and then Kansas.  It also makes it
easier to extend the streak of 20-win seasons.

El Paso is kind of like Kansas State or Iowa State in terms of power ranking.
The best opponent they've played to-date is Arizona (an 8 point loss), while
the worst opponent can probably be taken from the list of Devision II,
Division III, and NAIA schools they've played.

Conference USA has played an odd schedule.  UTEP has played each team in their
division twice, on consecutive days, in the same venue.  Ditto for two opponents
from the other division.  Gives a new meaning to the term "home and home series".
ESPN shows FOUR games, all on the road, against Florida Atlantic as having been
postponed.  I'm going to assume that only two were originally scheduled, then got
rescheduled.  I haven't looked into it, but they either scheduled two road games
against Arizona, or the earlier scheduled game got postponed and rescheduled.
Their game against Our Lady of the Lake was canceled, so the Miners are sporting
a 12-10 record.

Both teams have similar inconsistencies, both have positive trends that aren't
statistically significant, and both have negative mental toughness ratings,
and although the value for Kansas is more statistically significant than the
value for UTEP, recall how that helps against a weaker opponent.  Both teams
play games with point totals in the upper 130s.

All the prognosticators favor Kansas, with Seven Overtimes being the pessimist
at just 9 points, and Colley's scaled ratings being the optimist at 22 points.
The average is 17.0 points, with a scatter of just 3 points.  Interestingly,
Greenfield went from an 18.5 point margin yesterday evening to just a 17 point
margin today, in agreement with Vegas, according to Dunkel.  Historically,
Greenfield has come closest to matching Vegas, which makes me wonder whether
he's supplying Vegas with predictions.  More curiously, the margin from ESPN's
BPI increased from 19.8 to 19.9 points, but the probability of winning
DEcreased from 95.8 to 95.7 percent.  It may seem like an insignificant
difference, but it does suggest that the BPI is using individual inconsistency
values rather than a global average.  Don't you just love how one can reverse
engineer some of these algorithms?

RealTime's web site hasn't been responding for the last day or so; no great
loss there, considering its generally second-rate predictions.  No point in
waiting to see if the web site become accessible again.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     UTEP     KU      Defensive Stats     UTEP     KU
Points/Game         68.6    72.9     Opp Points/Game     68.2    66.5
Avg Score Margin    +0.4    +6.4     Opp Effective FG %  49.6    46.8
Assists/Game        11.2    13.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.3    10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   32.6    38.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.1    25.2
Effective FG %      48.0    49.8     Blocks/Game          2.3     4.2
Off Rebound %       22.4    30.5     Steals/Game          5.8     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.297   0.304     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.2    15.8
Turnover %          14.3    15.2

Kansas has the advantage in everything except turnover percentage.

My Stats Comparison        KU            UTEP
===================   =============   ============
Performance           +0.01           +0.53    
Inconsistency         11.57           11.50    
Trend                 +0.28 ± 0.32    +0.10 ± 0.50
Mental toughness      -0.40 ± 0.26    -0.30 ± 0.36
Average total pts      139.40         136.79    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  That was easy.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Souley Boum (guard)
most points        Souley Boum (guard)
most rebounds      Bryson Williams (forward)
most assists       Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most steals        Souley Boum (guard), Keonte Kennedy (guard)
most blocks        Tydus Verhoeven (forward)
most turnovers     Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most fouls         Jamal Bieniemy (guard)

Forward Eric Vila has been out since December with no return date.

                                                          18-8          12-10
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          UTEP 
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +18.39   76   58       92       # 10   # 14    #155   #135
Sagarin Predictor      +18.06   76   58       94.1     # 10   # 14    #153   #135 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +18.66   76   57                # 11   # 14    #167   #135 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.34   76   57                #  7   # 14    #162   #135 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +18.12   76   58       92   
Massey                 +18.00   77   59       96       #  9   # 22    #171   #188
Pomeroy                +15.28   74   58                # 20   # 17    #139   #137
Greenfield             +17.00   76   59                #  9   #  4    #149   #142
Dunkel                 +13.50   72   58                # 19           #164                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +17.00   76.5 59.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +18.64   78   59       95.3     # 14   # 12    #152   #144
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #    
Seven Overtimes         +9.00   71   62       74       # 48   #  5    #110   #131
DPPI                   +13.80   75   61.5     85.8     # 16   # 14    #133   #128
ESPN BPI               +19.90                 95.7     # 17   # 20    #175   #140
Whitlock               +15.44                          # 20   # 31    #158   #180
Colley Matrix          +22.11                          # 19   # 13    #190   #143
NCAA NET                                               # 11           #149
LRMC                                                   # 15   # 19    #161   #123
common opponents             
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +17.02   75.3 58.8     90.6
scatter                  3.08    2.0  1.5      7.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is now 19-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -6.65    -5.35
NEUT   #196 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +18.79    +3.21
NEUT   # 53 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.72    -2.72
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #157 North Dakota State          65  61   +18.34   -14.34
HOME   # 14 Creighton                   73  72    +2.93    -1.93
HOME   #296 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +27.33   +17.67
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                  58  57    -0.92    +1.92
HOME   # 13 West Virginia               79  65    +2.86   +11.14
HOME   # 23 Texas                       59  84    +4.55   -29.55
AWAY   # 94 TCU                         93  64    +8.89   +20.11
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    63  59    +5.02    -1.02
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State              70  75    +2.12    -7.12
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -7.58    -0.42
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                    68  75    +0.90    -7.90
HOME   # 94 TCU                         59  51   +13.01    -5.01
AWAY   # 15 Tennessee                   61  80    -1.13   -17.87
HOME   #152 Kansas State                74  51   +18.05    +4.95
AWAY   # 13 West Virginia               79  91    -1.26   -10.74
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State              78  66    +6.24    +5.76
HOME   #126 Iowa State                  97  64   +15.82   +17.18
AWAY   #126 Iowa State                  64  50   +11.70    +2.30
AWAY   #152 Kansas State                59  41   +13.93    +4.07
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                  67  61    +3.20    +2.80
AWAY   # 23 Texas                       72  75    +0.43    -3.43
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      71  58    -3.46   +16.46
HOME   #153 UTEP                                 +18.07             0.941

Here is UTEP's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        Texas Permian Basin        100  81
Div3        Sul Ross                    84  65
AWAY   # 74 Saint Mary's-Cal.           61  73    -9.42    -2.58
AWAY   # 52 Arizona                     61  69   -12.42    +4.42
AWAY   # 78 Arizona State               76  63    -8.89   +21.89
NAIA        Benedictine (AZ)            79  59
AWAY   #253 Southern Miss               66  74    +4.36   -12.36
AWAY   #253 Southern Miss               77  62    +4.36   +10.64
HOME   #217 Rice                       101  89    +6.28    +5.72
HOME   #217 Rice                        68  71    +6.28    -9.28
AWAY   # 79 North Texas                 33  63    -8.74   -21.26
AWAY   # 79 North Texas                 65  74    -8.74    -0.26
HOME   # 95 Louisiana Tech              82  74    -2.88   +10.88
HOME   # 95 Louisiana Tech              55  73    -2.88   -15.12
AWAY   #183 UTSA                        79  86    +0.15    -7.15
HOME   #183 UTSA                        69  51    +4.27   +13.73
AWAY   #113 UAB                         51  63    -5.49    -6.51
AWAY   #113 UAB                         60  75    -5.49    -9.51
HOME   #281 Fla. International          75  59   +10.41    +5.59
HOME   #281 Fla. International          77  68   +10.41    -1.41
HOME   #239 Charlotte                   70  47    +7.64   +15.36
HOME   #239 Charlotte                   77  62    +7.64    +7.36
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                               -18.07             0.059