predictions for Baylor game

The low water mark for Baylor this season was 67 points in Fort Worth, followed
by 68 points in Lubbock.  Good defense can hold the high-flying Bears down.  It
being Marcus Garrett's senior night (he plans to give his speech, regardless of
the recently-added UTEP home game), one might expect him to deliver the defensive
performance of his career.  I'd say it is possible for Kansas to hold Baylor to
under 70 points, so it's really just a matter of the Jayhawks being able to score
more than 70 points.  If Ochai, Christian, and Jalen have decent shooting
performances, and if David can avoid getting into foul trouble, that also seems
possible.

Yeah, Baylor is undefeated and highly ranked, but they definitely looked rusty
against Iowa State.  A stronger opponent could have taken the Bears out on
Tuesday.  They could be vulnerable to an upset, especially in Allen Field House.
Although Greenfield says that Baylor has no reported injuries at this time, I
heard something about Tchatchoua not yet being out of virus protocol.  Will
their leading rebounder be available to play?

What do the prognosticators think?  Well, a couple have actually picked the
Jayhawks.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis favors Kansas by 3.05 points, and
inexplicably, Seven Overtimes is also favoring Kansas by 3 points.  No, I can't
explain that, as Baylor is ranked 75 spots higher than Kansas by Bashuk.
Dunkel is the pessimist, favoring Baylor by 11.5 points, with Sagarin's Recent
Games close behind at 10.7 points.  Most favor Baylor by 5 to 7 points, with
the average being 5.37 points.  That's a two-possession game and well within
a standard deviation.

Baylor has a negative trend, mainly because they had so many double-digit
above-expectation performance early in the season.  They're coming off their
worst performance of the season, almost 17 points below expectation, and that
was in Waco, no less.  They do have a positive mental toughness rating, but it
is not statistically significant.  Kansas has a positive trend, though it is
likewise not statistically signficant, while the negative mental toughness
rating is significant; that costs the Jayhawks about 4 points in the prediction.

Kansas was a missed dunk away from defeating Texas in Austin, holding the
Longhorns to 66 points in regulation.  Beating Baylor doesn't see so
far-fetched.  And it would prevent the number of home losses under Self from
growing to something in excess of the number of conference championships.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BU      KU      Defensive Stats      BU      KU
Points/Game         86.4    73.0     Opp Points/Game     63.3    66.9
Avg Score Margin   +23.1    +6.1     Opp Effective FG %  47.5    47.2
Assists/Game        17.7    13.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.2    10.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.4    37.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.4    24.9
Effective FG %      58.6    49.6     Blocks/Game          4.1     4.0
Off Rebound %       35.9    30.0     Steals/Game          9.7     6.7
FTA/FGA            0.274   0.297     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.5    15.9
Turnover %          14.7    15.1

Kansas has the advantage in just two of the eight offensive categories
and in just three of the seven defensive categories.

My Stats Comparison        KU             BU
===================   =============   ============
Performance           -0.68 (7)       +3.43 (1)
Inconsistency         11.25 (10)       9.56 (3)
Trend                 +0.14 ± 0.34    -0.50 ± 0.43
Mental toughness      -0.49 ± 0.25    +0.06 ± 0.20
Average total pts      139.83 (7)     149.78 (2)

The number in parentheses is the conference ranking.

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference, five of which Kansas has played
twice (Oklahoma, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas), and only two that both
teams have played twice (Kansas State, Iowa State) for which I will use only the
home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in Waco, giving us
fifteen scores to compare:

KU  +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral court)     KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)
BU  +31 KSU on road (+35 neutral court)     BU  +48 KSU at home (+44 neutral court)
KU   -9 BU  at home (-13 neutral court)     KU  -21 BU  at home (-25 neutral court)

KU  +14 ISU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU  +33 ISU at home (+29 neutral court)
BU  +11 ISU on road (+15 neutral court)     BU   +5 ISU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +7 BU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +32 BU  at home (+28 neutral court)

KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
BU  +15 OU  at home (+11 neutral court)     BU  +15 OU  at home (+11 neutral court)
KU   -7 BU  at home (-11 neutral court)     KU  -10 BU  at home (-14 neutral court)

KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)     KU   +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
BU  +18 TCU on road (+22 neutral court)     BU  +18 TCU on road (+22 neutral court)
KU  +15 BU  at home (+11 neutral court)     KU  -14 BU  at home (-18 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court)
BU   +8 TTU on road (+12 neutral court)     BU   +8 TTU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   -3 BU  at home ( -7 neutral court)     KU   -6 BU  at home (-10 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)     KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
BU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral court)     BU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral court)
KU  -16 BU  at home (-20 neutral court)     KU   -7 BU  at home (-11 neutral court)

KU   -5 UT  on road ( -1 neutral court)     KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
BU  +14 UT  on road (+18 neutral court)     BU  +14 UT  on road (+18 neutral court)
KU  -15 BU  at home (-19 neutral court)     KU  -43 BU  at home (-47 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU    0 BU  at home ( -4 neutral court)

Three of the comparisons favor Kansas and one is a wash, while the remaining eleven
favor Baylor.  The average is 6.47 points in favor of Baylor, with a scatter of
16.82 points.  Decrease the home court advantage to just 2 points, and the average
margin becomes 7.80 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Davion Mitchell (guard)
most points        Jared Butler (guard)
most rebounds      Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (forward)
most assists       Davion Mitchell (guard)
most steals        Jared Butler (guard)
most blocks        Mark Vital (guard)
most turnovers     Jared Butler (guard)
most fouls         Davion Mitchell (guard)

                                                          17-8           18-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -5.09   69   74       32       # 13   # 17    #  2   # 92
Sagarin Predictor       -4.20   69   73       34.4     # 12   # 17    #  2   # 92 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -5.55   68   74                # 15   # 17    #  2   # 92 
Sagarin Recent Games   -10.70   66   77                # 29   # 17    #  3   # 92 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +3.05   73   70       61   
Massey                  -3.00   69   72       40       # 12   # 26    #  2   # 92
Pomeroy                 -6.52   67   74                # 23   # 20    #  2   #109
Greenfield              -5.00   68.5 73.5              # 12   #  8    #  2   # 21
Dunkel                 -11.50   64   75                # 23           #  2                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -5.00   68.5 73.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -3.94   70   74       36.5     # 17   # 14    #  3   # 24
Real Time               -6.00   73   79       38.7     # 38   # 23    #  3   #201 
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   68   65       52       # 84   #  5    #  9   # 78
DPPI                    -7.80   69   77       24.6     # 24   # 21    #  2   #137
ESPN BPI                -7.60                 23.8     # 20   # 23    #  1   # 90
Whitlock                -6.64                          # 22   # 35    #  2   # 99
Colley Matrix           -6.48                          # 18   # 19    #  3   #104
NCAA NET                                               # 17           #  2
LRMC                                                   # 16   # 22    #  5   #103
common opponents        -7.80
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -5.37   68.7 73.6     38.1
scatter                  3.74    2.4  3.3     12.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is now 18-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.30    -4.70
NEUT   #205 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +19.53    +2.47
NEUT   # 50 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.28    -2.28
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #157 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.94   -13.94
HOME   # 10 Creighton                   73  72    +1.72    -0.72
HOME   #295 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +26.76   +18.24
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  58  57    -0.71    +1.71
HOME   # 16 West Virginia               79  65    +2.77   +11.23
HOME   # 23 Texas                       59  84    +4.10   -29.10
AWAY   # 92 TCU                         93  64    +8.48   +20.52
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                    63  59    +4.34    -0.34
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma State              70  75    +2.19    -7.19
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -8.17    +0.17
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                    68  75    +0.36    -7.36
HOME   # 92 TCU                         59  51   +12.46    -4.46
AWAY   # 14 Tennessee                   61  80    -1.40   -17.60
HOME   #149 Kansas State                74  51   +17.44    +5.56
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia               79  91    -1.21   -10.79
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma State              78  66    +6.17    +5.83
HOME   #130 Iowa State                  97  64   +15.55   +17.45
AWAY   #130 Iowa State                  64  50   +11.57    +2.43
AWAY   #149 Kansas State                59  41   +13.46    +4.54
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                  67  61    +3.27    +2.73
AWAY   # 23 Texas                       72  75    +0.12    -3.12
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -4.19             0.344
HOME   #174 UTEP                                 +19.24             0.958

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #200 Louisiana                  112  82   +25.24    +4.76
NEUT   #169 Washington                  86  52   +22.99   +11.01
NEUT   #  5 Illinois                    82  69    +3.41    +9.59
HOME   #154 Stephen F. Austin           83  52   +23.95    +7.05
AWAY   #149 Kansas State               100  69   +19.64   +11.36
HOME   #354 Ark.-Pine Bluff             99  42   +43.42   +13.58
HOME   #327 Central Arkansas            93  56   +36.12    +0.88
HOME   #347 Alcorn State               105  76   +40.22   -11.22
AWAY   #130 Iowa State                  76  65   +17.75    -6.75
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                    76  61   +10.52    +4.48
AWAY   # 92 TCU                         67  49   +14.66    +3.34
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  68  60    +5.47    +2.53
HOME   # 12 Kansas                      77  69    +8.17    -0.17
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma State              81  66    +8.37    +6.63
HOME   #149 Kansas State               107  59   +23.62   +24.38
HOME   # 69 Auburn                      84  72   +15.49    -3.49
AWAY   # 23 Texas                       83  69    +6.30    +7.70
HOME   #130 Iowa State                  77  72   +21.73   -16.73
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                                +4.19             0.656
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia                         +4.97             0.727
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma State                       +12.35             0.931
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                            +9.45             0.855