predictions for Iowa State game (away)

Sagarin has his latest ratings and predictions up, so I've decided to post this
summary before hitting the sack, rather than getting up early enough to post a
couple hours before tip-off.  I'm only waiting on Dunkel at the moment.

Since we just finished playing Iowa State, there's not much to add, so I'll
keep this brief.  One item of interest is that Greenfield's (Team Rankings')
predicted margin dropped by only 3 points, suggesting that he (they) are
using a home court advantage of just 1.5 points, even less than Sagarin's
2.0 points.  Similarly, Dolphin's predicted margin decreased by 3.3 points,
indicating a home court advantage of 1.65 points.  Both indications assume
no significant change in the power ratings of the two teams, which isn't all
that unreasonable consider how deep we are into the season.  If anything,
Kansas should have gained a little ground on Iowa State given the outcome of
Thursday's game, so the home court advantage could be even less than indicated.

Seven Overtimes is once again the pessimist, giving Kansas a mere 2 point
margin.  Bashuk must not be aware of Thursday's outcome.  Colley is the
optimist, giving Kansas a 19 point margin, followed closely by Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis, which favors Kansas by 17 points.  The average is 12.1
points with a scatter of 3.6 points.

Kansas plays games with an average of 143.4 total points, while Iowa State
is at 146.4 points.  Those average to 144.9 points, so a 12 point margin
suggests a score of Kansas 79, Iowa State 66.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     ISU      KU      Defensive Stats     ISU      KU
Points/Game         67.7    74.5     Opp Points/Game     78.7    68.9
Avg Score Margin   -10.9    +5.5     Opp Effective FG %  52.1    48.3
Assists/Game        11.3    13.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      6.7    10.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   30.7    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.1    25.2
Effective FG %      49.3    50.4     Blocks/Game          3.1     4.1
Off Rebound %       20.3    31.1     Steals/Game          7.0     6.5
FTA/FGA            0.211   0.304     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.0    16.1
Turnover %          18.5    15.4

Kansas has the advantage in all of the eight offensive stats and in six of
the seven defensive categories.

My Stats Comparison        KU             ISU
===================   =============   ============
Performance           -0.55 (7)       -4.30 (10)
Inconsistency         12.24 (10)      12.03 (9)
Trend                 +0.13 ± 0.49    -0.18 ± 0.74
Mental toughness      -0.49 ± 0.28    +0.12 ± 0.27
Average total pts      143.35 (5)     146.40 (4)

The number in parenthesis is the conference ranking.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, three of which Kansas has played
twice (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, TCU), and one of which both teams have played twice
(West Virginia, for which I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations),
plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us thirteen scores to compare:

KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)
ISU  -9 KSU at home (-13 neutral court)
KU  +28 ISU on road (+32 neutral court)

KU  -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
ISU  -5 WVU on road ( -1 neutral court)     ISU  -4 WVU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)     KU  +14 ISU on road (+18 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
ISU -11 BU  at home (-15 neutral court)
KU   +7 ISU on road (+11 neutral court)

KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
ISU  -6 UT  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  -31 ISU on road (-27 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
ISU -27 TTU at home (-31 neutral court)
KU  +32 ISU on road (+36 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
ISU -21 OSU at home (-25 neutral court)     ISU -21 OSU at home (-25 neutral court)
KU  +29 ISU on road (+33 neutral court)     KU  +20 ISU on road (+24 neutral court)

KU   -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
ISU  -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     ISU  -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -4 ISU on road (  0 neutral court)     KU   -1 ISU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)     KU   +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
ISU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)     ISU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +28 ISU on road (+32 neutral court)     KU   -1 ISU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +33 ISU at home (+29 neutral court)
KU  +25 ISU on road (+29 neutral court)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, and five favor Iowa State.  The average is
10.4 points in favor of Kansas, with a huge scatter of 19.2 points.  Reduce the home
court advantage to just 2 points, and the average increases to 12.4 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Rasir Bolton (guard)
most points        Rasir Bolton (guard)
most rebounds      Rasir Bolton (guard)
most assists       Rasir Bolton (guard)
most steals        Rasir Bolton (guard)
most blocks        Javan Johnson (forward)
most turnovers     Rasir Bolton (guard)
most fouls         Jalen Coleman-Lands (guard)

The Cyclones look rather one-diemnsional.  Put Garrett on Bolton, and Kansas should
control the game.

Guard Nate Schuster is out for an unknown amount of time for an unpsecified reason.
Guard Blake Hinson is missing the entire season with a medical condition.
Forward Xavier Foster had foot surgery and is out for the rest of the season;
he was only third-last in minutes played.

                                                          14-7           2-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +11.96   78   66       84       # 14   # 11    #139   #  9
Sagarin Predictor      +11.77   78   66       83.4     # 13   # 11    #136   #  9 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +12.03   78   66                # 14   # 11    #137   #  9 
Sagarin Recent Games   +14.85   79   64                # 36   # 11    #238   #  9 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +17.41   81   63       91   
Massey                 +10.00   77   67       83       # 12   # 21    #160   # 18
Pomeroy                +10.61   76   65                # 22   # 12    #138   #  9
Greenfield             +11.50   78.5 67.5              # 16   #  6    #139   # 55
Dunkel                                                 # 27           #207                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                               
Dolphin Predictive     +11.10   78   67       83.1     # 21   # 11    #180   # 76
Real Time              +14.00   81   67       71.7     # 36   # 18    #276   #  9 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   71   69       69       #106   #  6    #284   # 25
DPPI                   +11.70   78   66       80.8     # 33   #  7    #179   # 19
ESPN BPI               +11.70                 85.3     # 22   # 17    #143   #  4
Whitlock               +12.42                          # 23   # 25    #192   # 14
Colley Matrix          +18.84                          # 38   # 10    #237   #  9
NCAA NET                                               # 19           #231
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       #100 * #   
common opponents       +12.38                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +12.14   77.8 66.1     81.3
scatter                  3.61    2.6  1.6      6.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is still 17-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.05    -4.95
NEUT   #228 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.65    +1.35
NEUT   # 51 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.01    -2.01
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #148 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.52   -13.52
HOME   # 18 Creighton                   73  72    +2.68    -1.68
HOME   #283 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +26.07   +18.93
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  58  57    -1.48    +2.48
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               79  65    +2.60   +11.40
HOME   # 26 Texas                       59  84    +4.23   -29.23
AWAY   # 90 TCU                         93  64    +7.55   +21.45
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                    63  59    +3.67    +0.33
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State              70  75    +2.26    -7.26
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -8.88    +0.88
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    68  75    -0.39    -6.61
HOME   # 90 TCU                         59  51   +11.61    -3.61
AWAY   #  9 Tennessee                   61  80    -3.02   -15.98
HOME   #159 Kansas State                74  51   +18.18    +4.82
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia               79  91    -1.46   -10.54
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              78  66    +6.32    +5.68
HOME   #136 Iowa State                  97  64   +15.84   +17.16
AWAY   #136 Iowa State                           +11.78             0.834
AWAY   #159 Kansas State                         +14.12             0.909
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                            +2.58             0.596
AWAY   # 26 Texas                                 +0.17             0.506
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -4.82             0.320

Here is Iowa State's season (postponed games have been arbitrarily moved to
the end of the schedule; I have not bothered to find out when they might have
been rescheduled):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #353 Ark.-Pine Bluff             80  63   +23.17    -6.17
HOME   #115 South Dakota State          68  71    +0.34    -3.34
AWAY   #  3 Iowa                        77 105   -19.09    -8.91
HOME   #159 Kansas State                65  74    +4.37   -13.37
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia               65  70   -15.27   +10.27
HOME   #306 Jackson State               60  45   +14.00    +1.00
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      65  76   -18.63    +7.63
AWAY   # 26 Texas                       72  78   -13.64    +7.64
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  64  91   -11.23   -15.77
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              60  81    -7.49   -13.51
AWAY   # 70 Mississippi State           56  95    -8.46   -30.54
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               72  76   -11.21    +7.21
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    72  79   -14.20    +7.20
AWAY   # 90 TCU                         76  79    -6.26    +3.26
AWAY   # 13 Kansas                      64  97   -15.84   -17.16
HOME   # 13 Kansas                               -11.78             0.166
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                       -11.55             0.122
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                             -10.14             0.189
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                               -22.69             0.013
HOME   # 90 TCU                                   -2.20             0.422
AWAY   #159 Kansas State                          +0.31             0.512
HOME   # 26 Texas                                 -9.58             0.200
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                           -15.29             0.073

Dunkel and Vegas are now available:

Dunkel                  +6.00   79.5 73.5              # 25           #216                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.50   79   67