predictions for Iowa State game (home)

Let me start off by hoping that everyone is aware of the schedule change.  Game time
has been moved UP to 6 p.m. Central, 2 p.m. Hawaiian, and the broadcast will be on
ESPN.

I've often commented that RealTime must be using a rather large value for the home
court advantage.  With the two Iowa State games back-to-back, it's easy to see that
he's using 8 points for the home court advantage, given that today's 28 point margin
shrinks to just 12 points on Saturday.  A value of 8 points is large even in a
normal season.  Sagarin currently has it as 2.05 points, and he clearly solves for
the value rather than simply assuming it.  That's one reason I regard RealTime as
NotReadyForPrimeTime.

Another interesting tidbit is the question of how you compute the Strength of
Schedule rating.  RealTime, Colley, and the BPI all have Iowa State with a
higher Strength of Schedule ranking than Kansas.  I suspect the difference is
whether you choose to use an absolute strength of schedule rather than a
relative strength of schedule.  For example, if 17-0 Baylor and 0-15 Kennesaw State
were to play the exact same opponents in the exact same venues (home, away, or
neutral), should they have the exact same strength of schedule?  Such a schedule
might prove to be cupcakes for Baylor and horribly difficult for Kennesaw State,
so maybe Kennesaw State should be considered as having the more difficult schedule.
That's the relative strength of schedule approach, and it's interesting that the
BPI appears to taking that approach, at least in part.  So in a hypothetical
season where teams only play home and away conference games, the team with the
best record would have the easiest schedule, and the team with the worst record
would end up with the most difficult schedule, even though all teams played
almost exactly the same schedule, except for not being able to play themselves.

These next three games, the Kansas win-loss record may improve, but the strength
of schedule ranking is going to take a hit.  I was shocked by how much it dropped
after the home game with Kansas State.

Since being embarrassed by Mississippi State in the SEC Challenge game, Iowa State
has given West Virginia, Oklahoma, and TCU good games, playing above expectation
in all three contests.  The Jayhawks cannot afford to take the Cyclones lightly.
Fortunately for Kansas, they're coming off an above-expectation performance at
home against Oklahoma State.  Although Iowa State has a positive trend statistic
and Kansas has a negative one, neither is statistically significant.  Almost ditto
for the mental toughness statistic, except that the value for Kansas is statistically
significant.  However, that's actually good news for the Jayhawks, because it means
the team plays better against the weaker opponents, of which Iowa State is one.

RealTime, with its huge home court advantage, is the most optimistic, giving the
Jayhawks a 28 point margin.  Seven Overtimes, who has had Kansas ranked extremely
low all season, is the most pessimistic, favoring the Jayhawks by a mere 5 points.
The average is a 16 point margin for Kansas, with a scatter of 5 points.  Iowa
State plays games averaging 145.4 total points, while Kansas is a bit under that
at 142.2 points.  Those average to 143.9 points, so the score ought to resemble
Kansas 80, Iowa State 64.

Playing home and away back-to-back is uncommon, but in this case I'd say it works
in the Jayhawks' favor.  Today, the two teams don't know each other very well,
other than from the scouting reports, so Kansas being at home has the advantage.
On Saturday, the teams will know each other, which I'd say helps the road team a
bit, which would be Kansas.

As far as inconsistency is concerned, these two teams are both nearly the same,
worse than the national average, and at the bottom of the Big 12 conference.
That makes this game more unpredictable than might otherwise be the case.


Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     ISU      KU      Defensive Stats     ISU      KU
Points/Game         68.0    73.3     Opp Points/Game     77.4    69.2
Avg Score Margin    -9.4    +4.1     Opp Effective FG %  51.3    48.8
Assists/Game        11.6    13.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      6.7    10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   30.6    37.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.1    24.9
Effective FG %      50.1    49.7     Blocks/Game          3.0     4.1
Off Rebound %       20.7    31.2     Steals/Game          7.1     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.211   0.311     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.5    16.3
Turnover %          18.9    15.8

Kansas has the advantage in seven of the eight offensive stats and in all of
the seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, three of which Kansas has played
twice (Oklahoam State, Oklahoma, TCU), and one of both teams have played twice (West
Virginia, for which I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations), giving us
twelve scores to compare:

KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)
ISU  -9 KSU at home (-13 neutral court)
KU  +36 ISU at home (+32 neutral court)

KU  -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
ISU  -5 WVU on road ( -1 neutral court)     ISU  -4 WVU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)     KU  +22 ISU at home (+18 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
ISU -11 BU  at home (-15 neutral court)
KU  +15 ISU at home (+11 neutral court)

KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
ISU  -6 UT  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  -23 ISU at home (-27 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
ISU -27 TTU at home (-31 neutral court)
KU  +40 ISU at home (+36 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
ISU -21 OSU at home (-25 neutral court)     ISU -21 OSU at home (-25 neutral court)
KU  +37 ISU at home (+33 neutral court)     KU  +28 ISU at home (+24 neutral court)

KU   -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
ISU  -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     ISU  -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   +7 ISU at home ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)     KU   +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
ISU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)     ISU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +36 ISU at home (+32 neutral court)     KU   +7 ISU at home ( +3 neutral court)

Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, and two favor Iowa State (Texas and the West
Virginia road game).  The average is 17.2 points in favor of Kansas, with a huge
scatter of 19.5 points.  Reduce the home court advantage to just 2 points, and the
average drops to 15.2 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Rasir Bolton (guard)
most points        Rasir Bolton (guard)
most rebounds      Rasir Bolton (guard)
most assists       Rasir Bolton (guard)
most steals        Rasir Bolton (guard)
most blocks        Solomon Young (forward)
most turnovers     Rasir Bolton (guard)
most fouls         Jalen Coleman-Lands (guard)

The Cyclones look rather one-diemnsional.  Put Garrett on Bolton, and Kansas should
control the game.

Guard Nate Schuster is out for an unknown amount of time for an unpsecified reason.
Guard Blake Hinson is missing the entire season with a medical condition.
Forward Xavier Foster had foot surgery and is out for the rest of the season;
he was only third-last in minutes played.

Thompson might play for the Jayhawks.  Wouldn't be surprised if they are cautious
with him, so if they don't need him, I suspect they'll resist the urge to play him,
except possibly for a couple minutes in mop-up time, just to ease back into game
condition.

                                                          13-7           2-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +15.15   78   62       89       # 15   #  6    #135   # 12
Sagarin Predictor      +14.51   77   63       88.9     # 13   #  6    #125   # 12 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +15.62   78   62                # 14   #  6    #134   # 12 
Sagarin Recent Games   +18.34   79   61                # 36   #  6    #236   # 12 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +23.13   82   58       95   
Massey                 +13.00   77   64       91       # 14   # 18    #152   # 25
Pomeroy                +11.24   75   64                # 25   #  9    #132   # 13
Greenfield             +14.50   79.5 65                # 20   #  4    #133   # 55
Dunkel                 +22.00   85.5 63.5              # 27           #207                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +15.00   79.5 64.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +14.41   79   65       89.4     # 26   # 11    #160   # 77
Real Time              +28.00   87   59       89.4     # 33   # 10    #273   #  9 
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   72   67       75       #108   #  7    #265   # 40
DPPI                   +15.00   79.5 64.5     87.7     # 33   #  7    #179   # 19
ESPN BPI               +14.80                 90.9     # 24   # 13    #134   #  8
Whitlock               +13.24                          # 35   # 23    #187   # 17
Colley Matrix          +20.87                          # 38   # 10    #237   #  9
NCAA NET                                               # 21           #222  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       #100 * #   
common opponents       +15.17                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +16.04   79.1 63.0     88.5
scatter                  5.05    3.8  2.4      5.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is still 17-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.41    -4.59
NEUT   #221 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +19.59    +2.41
NEUT   # 51 Kentucky                    65  62    +4.54    -1.54
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #152 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.26   -13.26
HOME   # 17 Creighton                   73  72    +2.22    -1.22
HOME   #287 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +25.57   +19.43
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  58  57    -1.93    +2.93
HOME   # 16 West Virginia               79  65    +2.19   +11.81
HOME   # 26 Texas                       59  84    +3.83   -28.83
AWAY   # 88 TCU                         93  64    +6.98   +22.02
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                    63  59    +3.29    +0.71
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State              70  75    +1.80    -6.80
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -9.35    +1.35
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    68  75    -0.81    -6.19
HOME   # 88 TCU                         59  51   +11.08    -3.08
AWAY   #  8 Tennessee                   61  80    -3.68   -15.32
HOME   #164 Kansas State                74  51   +17.89    +5.11
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia               79  91    -1.91   -10.09
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              78  66    +5.90    +6.10
HOME   #125 Iowa State                           +14.52             0.889
AWAY   #125 Iowa State                           +10.42             0.810
AWAY   #164 Kansas State                         +13.79             0.908
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                            +2.17             0.583
AWAY   # 26 Texas                                 -0.27             0.490
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -5.25             0.301

Here is Iowa State's season (postponed games have been arbitrarily moved to
the end of the schedule; I have not bothered to find out when they might have
been rescheduled):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #354 Ark.-Pine Bluff             80  63   +23.99    -6.99
HOME   #114 South Dakota State          68  71    +1.17    -4.17
AWAY   #  4 Iowa                        77 105   -18.16    -9.84
HOME   #164 Kansas State                65  74    +5.42   -14.42
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia               65  70   -14.38    +9.38
HOME   #305 Jackson State               60  45   +14.83    +0.17
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      65  76   -17.72    +6.72
AWAY   # 26 Texas                       72  78   -12.74    +6.74
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                  64  91   -10.30   -16.70
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              60  81    -6.57   -14.43
AWAY   # 70 Mississippi State           56  95    -7.65   -31.35
HOME   # 16 West Virginia               72  76   -10.28    +6.28
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    72  79   -13.28    +6.28
AWAY   # 88 TCU                         76  79    -5.49    +2.49
AWAY   # 13 Kansas                               -14.52             0.111
HOME   # 13 Kansas                               -10.42             0.190
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                       -10.67             0.139
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                              -9.18             0.212
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                               -21.82             0.015
HOME   # 88 TCU                                   -1.39             0.450
AWAY   #164 Kansas State                          +1.32             0.550
HOME   # 26 Texas                                 -8.64             0.223
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                           -14.40             0.084