predictions for Oklahoma State game

The Streak Is Over.

As the saying goes, all good things must come to an end.  So it was with
the streak of conference championships, and now the streak of being ranked
in the Top 25 had ended.  But those are just human polls.  Multiple computer
rankings still have Kansas in the Top 25, though the composite compiled by
Massey does not.

So, now that the pressure is off...

Time to start some new streaks.  The Jayhawks let one slip away in Stillwater,
where Kansas appears to be jinxed.  In Allen Field House they are not.  At
least in a normal season.  This season is not normal.  RealTime is the most
optimistic, favoring Kansas by 8 points, with Dunkel close behind at 7.5 points.
Vegas has it at 6.5 points, while Massey has it at 6.0 points.  The most
pessimistic is Sagarin's Recent Games method, which favors Oklahoma State by
4 points.  I do wonder if Sagarin looks at the won-lost record of the recent
games or the performance relative to expectation.  The former would be
susceptible to scheduling, with a string of tough games making it look like
a bad trend.  The Cowboys do have the conference's best trend, while Kansas
has a negative trend, though it's not statistically significant.  Oklahoma
State is also the conference's second-most consistent team, while Kansas is
the second-least consistent.  It all depends on which Jayhawk team decides
to show up, as the average of the various prognostications is a mere 3.5 points
in favor of Kansas.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OSU      KU      Defensive Stats     OSU      KU
Points/Game         76.8    73.0     Opp Points/Game     71.5    69.3
Avg Score Margin    +5.3    +3.7     Opp Effective FG %  46.4    49.3
Assists/Game        13.1    13.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.8    10.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.0    37.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.6    24.7
Effective FG %      51.5    49.9     Blocks/Game          4.4     3.9
Off Rebound %       30.1    30.8     Steals/Game          7.3     6.2
FTA/FGA            0.376   0.296     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.0    16.3
Turnover %          17.9    15.5

Kansas has the advantage in just three of the eight offensive stats and in
just three of the seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas has played
twice (West Virginia), one of which Oklahoam State has played twice (Texas), plus
the head-to-head in Stillwater (for which I'll use only the home-home and road-road
permutations), giving us ten scores to compare:

KU   +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
OSU  -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)     OSU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +36 OSU at home (+32 neutral court)

KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)     KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
OSU  -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)     OSU  +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU  -26 OSU at home (-30 neutral court)     KU  -29 OSU at home (-33 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OSU  +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU    0 OSU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)     KU  -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)
OSU  -3 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)     OSU  -3 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +21 OSU at home (+17 neutral court)     KU   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)
OSU +16 KSU on road (+20 neutral court)
KU   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
OSU -15 BU  at home (-19 neutral court)
KU  +19 OSU at home (+15 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)

Seven of the comparisons favor Kansas, two favor Oklahoma State, and one is a wash.
The average is 4.3 points with a scatter of a whopping 20.1 points.  If we adopt a
2 point home court advantage, the average becomes just 2.3 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points        Cade Cunningham (guard)
most rebounds      Isaac Likekele (guard)
most assists       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals        Cade Cunningham (guard)
most blocks        Kalib Booner (forward)
most turnovers     Cade Cunningham (guard)
most fouls         Avery Anderson III (guard)

Forward Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe missed Saturday's game for an undisclosed
reason, and it is unknown if he will be able to play today; he is sixth in terms
of minutes played and fourth in terms of points scored.  Guard Chris Harris is
out with a knee injury; he only averaged 6 minutes per game.  Guard Donovan
Williams is recovering from knee surgery; he was last on the team in minutes
played.  Forward Montreal Pena Jr. has been dealing with a personal issue, and
it is unclear when he might return to the team.

Thompson is still out while recovering from his broken finger.  Grant-Foster
turned an ankle in practice on Friday and was unable to play on Saturday.
I've not seen anything about his status for today.

                                                          12-7           12-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +4.14   74   70       65       # 18   #  4    # 34   # 34
Sagarin Predictor       +5.39   75   69       70.7     # 16   #  4    # 42   # 34 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +3.85   74   70       65       # 17   #  4    # 28   # 34 
Sagarin Recent Games    -4.03   70   74                # 59   #  4    # 17   # 34 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +2.49   73   71       59   
Massey                  +6.00   75   69       71       # 18   # 15    # 38   # 34
Pomeroy                 +1.06   70   69                # 27   #  7    # 34   # 42
Greenfield              +5.50   72.5 67                # 21   #  4    # 37   # 31
Dunkel                  +7.50   77   70                # 29           # 33                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   73   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +5.35   74   69       67.9     # 30   # 10    # 35   # 36
Real Time               +8.00   81   73       72.1     # 48   # 12    # 27   # 35 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   68   66       56       #128   #  6    # 25   # 15
DPPI                    +3.30   75.5 72                # 41   # 10    # 44   # 51
ESPN BPI                +5.90                 70.7     # 25   # 11    # 59   # 39
Whitlock                -0.07                          # 35   # 23    # 33   # 39
Colley Matrix           -2.45                          # 38   # 10    # 24   # 27
NCAA NET                                               # 26           # 37  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 65 * #   
common opponents        +2.30                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.49   73.7 69.7     66.4
scatter                  3.29    3.2  2.3      5.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is still 17-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.49    -4.51
NEUT   #226 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +19.86    +2.14
NEUT   # 52 Kentucky                    65  62    +4.48    -1.48
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #148 North Dakota State          65  61   +16.91   -12.91
HOME   # 18 Creighton                   73  72    +2.27    -1.27
HOME   #285 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +25.30   +19.70
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  58  57    -2.57    +3.57
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               79  65    +2.24   +11.76
HOME   # 23 Texas                       59  84    +3.12   -28.12
AWAY   # 82 TCU                         93  64    +6.46   +22.54
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    63  59    +3.00    +1.00
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State              70  75    +1.35    -6.35
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                      69  77    -9.64    +1.64
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    68  75    -1.04    -5.96
HOME   # 82 TCU                         59  51   +10.50    -2.50
AWAY   #  7 Tennessee                   61  80    -4.04   -14.96
HOME   #167 Kansas State                74  51   +17.97    +5.03
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia               79  91    -1.80   -10.20
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +5.39             0.707
HOME   #130 Iowa State                           +14.45             0.885
AWAY   #130 Iowa State                           +10.41             0.806
AWAY   #167 Kansas State                         +13.93             0.911
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +1.47             0.557
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 -0.92             0.468
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -5.60             0.291

Here is Oklahoma State's season (postponed games have been arbitrarily moved to
the end of the schedule; I have not bothered to find out when they might have
been rescheduled):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #205 UT Arlington                75  68   +13.01    -6.01
HOME   #222 Texas Southern              85  65   +18.34    +1.66
AWAY   # 70 Marquette                   70  62    +1.05    +6.95
HOME   #254 Oakland-Mich.               84  71   +20.17    -7.17
HOME   #150 Oral Roberts                83  78   +13.71    -8.71
AWAY   # 78 Wichita State               67  64    +2.30    +0.70
HOME   # 82 TCU                         76  77    +7.13    -8.13
AWAY   # 23 Texas                       74  77    -4.29    +1.29
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  82  77    -5.94   +10.94
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               84  87    -1.13    -1.87
AWAY   #167 Kansas State                70  54   +10.56    +5.44
HOME   # 16 Kansas                      75  70    -1.35    +6.35
HOME   #  1 Baylor                      66  81    -8.97    -6.03
AWAY   #130 Iowa State                  81  60    +7.04   +13.96
HOME   # 19 Arkansas                    81  77    -0.86    +4.86
AWAY   # 82 TCU                         78  81    +3.09    -6.09
HOME   # 23 Texas                       75  67    -0.25    +8.25
AWAY   # 16 Kansas                                -5.39             0.293
HOME   #167 Kansas State                         +14.60             0.970
HOME   #130 Iowa State                           +11.08             0.867
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                               -13.01             0.042
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            -1.90             0.403
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              -4.41             0.317
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                              -0.37             0.484
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                         -5.17             0.225