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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
- asteroid
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3 years 9 months ago #26286
by asteroid
If streaks are important to you, then today's game is perhaps the most
important of the season. Lose, and the Kansas streak of being ranked
in the Top 25 is likely to be over. Win, and the streak ought to remain
alive.
The Jayhawks, however, are not favored, though it's a one-possession game,
so all it takes is an above-expectation performance of just a few points.
West Virginia, however, is the conference's most consistent team, having
played all their games within 12 points of expectation. Kansas has almost
twice the level of inconsistency of West Virginia, so it all depends on
which Jayhawk team shows up to play. West Virginia has played below
expectation their last two games, while Kansas ended their string of
below expectation performances with a somewhat positive result against
Kansas State.
Dunkel is the most optimistic of the various prognosticators, picking
the Jayhawks to win by 2 points. Seven Ovetimes is the only other
with a positive outcome for Kansas, by just a single point. RealTime
is the most pessimistic, expecting Kansas to lose by 9 points. Common
opponents is the second-most pessimistic, with a 5.8 point margin,
which would be worse if a more normal home court advantage were in
play. Of course, one of those common opponent comparisons is the
head-to-head in Lawrence, in which Kansas cruised to a comfortable
14 point win. Since then, Kansas has lost Thompson to injury, while
West Virginia has lost Tshiebwe to indifference (left the team). That's
one fewer big bruiser than McCormack has to deal with. And against
Kansas State, Braun and Wilson seem to have come out of their offensive
funks.
Curiously, the margins for two of the prognosticators moved in opposite
directions overnight. Greenfield was at 2.5 points but is now at 1.5
points, while the BPI went from 2.4 points to 3.9 points. The average
is 2.25 points, but with a scatter of 2.55 points.
Enough chit-chat. Its less than an hour to tip-off. Not quite as
early a tip as the ones I hate most, but I still had to get up earlier
than usual because Sagarin didn't have his predictions up last night.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats WVU KU Defensive Stats WVU KU
Points/Game 75.7 72.6 Opp Points/Game 70.4 68.1
Avg Score Margin +5.3 +4.6 Opp Effective FG % 48.9 48.7
Assists/Game 13.9 13.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 12.2 10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm 39.6 37.4 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.4 24.9
Effective FG % 48.2 49.9 Blocks/Game 2.7 4.1
Off Rebound % 34.0 30.1 Steals/Game 6.9 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.362 0.297 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.4 16.1
Turnover % 14.2 15.2
Kansas has the advantage in just one of the eight offensive stats but in
five of the seven defensive categories.
Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, five in conference plus Gonzaga, one of which
Kansas has played twice (Oklahoma), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving
us eight scores to compare:
KU -12 Gon neutral (-12 neutral court)
WVU -5 Gon neutral ( -5 neutral court)
KU -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU -7 OU on road ( -3 neutral court) KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
WVU -4 OU on road ( 0 neutral court) WVU -4 OU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU -7 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court) KU -4 WVU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
WVU +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU -25 UT at home (-29 neutral court)
WVU -2 UT at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU -27 WVU on road (-23 neutral court)
KU +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)
WVU +22 KSU on road (+26 neutral court)
KU -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
WVU +1 TTU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU +4 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU +6 WVU on road (+10 neutral court)
Only the Texas Tech and head-to-head games favor Kansas. The average is 7.75 points
in favor of the Mountaineers, though if you reduce the home court advantage to just
2 points, the average becomes 5.75 points in favor of West Virginia.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Miles McBride (guard)
most points Miles McBride (guard)
most rebounds Derek Culver (forward)
most assists Miles McBride (guard)
most steals Miles McBride (guard)
most blocks Derek Culver (forward)
most turnovers Derek Culver (forward)
most fouls Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
Forward Oscar Tshiebwe has left the team. Forward Isaiah Cottrell is out for
the season with a torn Achilles tendon.
12-6 12-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall -1.35 70 71 45 # 14 # 7 # 18 # 25
Sagarin Predictor -0.67 70 71 47.3 # 14 # 7 # 21 # 25
Sagarin Golden Mean -1.44 70 71 45 # 14 # 7 # 17 # 25
Sagarin Recent Games -5.04 68 73 45 # 54 # 7 # 25 # 25
Sagarin Eigenvector -2.30 69 72 41
Massey -2.00 69 71 47 # 13 # 21 # 27 # 17
Pomeroy -0.14 69 69 # 22 # 9 # 21 # 18
Greenfield -1.50 70 71.5 # 17 # 3 # 19 # 17
Dunkel +2.00 67 65 # 23 # 29
Vegas (via Dunkel) -2.50 70 72
Dolphin Predictive -1.18 71 72 45.8 # 27 # 10 # 29 # 22
Real Time -9.00 73 82 30.6 # 34 # 14 # 17 # 12
Seven Overtimes +1.00 67 66 60 #123 # 6 # 18 # 3
DPPI -3.50 72 75.5 36.8 # 33 # 10 # 29 # 17
ESPN BPI -3.90 34.1 # 21 # 17 # 22 # 22
Whitlock -0.82 # 28 # 25 # 22 # 14
Colley Matrix -2.44 # 32 # 4 # 17 # 7
NCAA NET # 22 # 25
LRMC # 2 * # # 8 * #
common opponents -5.75
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -2.25 69.6 71.6 43.4
scatter 2.55 1.7 4.0 7.9
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is down to 17-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 90 102 -7.03 -4.97
NEUT #224 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +20.45 +1.55
NEUT # 49 Kentucky 65 62 +4.95 -1.95
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #146 North Dakota State 65 61 +17.06 -13.06
HOME # 17 Creighton 73 72 +2.83 -1.83
HOME #276 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +25.76 +19.24
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 58 57 -2.41 +3.41
HOME # 21 West Virginia 79 65 +3.38 +10.62
HOME # 20 Texas 59 84 +3.37 -28.37
AWAY # 82 TCU 93 64 +6.92 +22.08
HOME # 18 Oklahoma 63 59 +3.08 +0.92
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma State 70 75 +2.15 -7.15
AWAY # 1 Baylor 69 77 -9.24 +1.24
AWAY # 18 Oklahoma 68 75 -0.96 -6.04
HOME # 82 TCU 59 51 +10.96 -2.96
AWAY # 8 Tennessee 61 80 -3.17 -15.83
HOME #163 Kansas State 74 51 +18.37 +4.63
AWAY # 21 West Virginia -0.66 0.473
HOME # 44 Oklahoma State +6.19 0.731
HOME #132 Iowa State +15.41 0.898
AWAY #132 Iowa State +11.37 0.825
AWAY #163 Kansas State +14.33 0.914
HOME # 12 Texas Tech +1.63 0.562
AWAY # 20 Texas -0.67 0.477
HOME # 1 Baylor -5.20 0.305
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
AWAY #120 South Dakota State 79 71 +8.85 -0.85
NEUT # 65 VCU(Va. Commonwealth) 78 66 +5.47 +6.53
NEUT #101 Western Kentucky 70 64 +9.58 -3.58
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 82 87 -8.39 +3.39
AWAY # 97 Georgetown 80 71 +7.11 +1.89
HOME # 92 North Texas 62 50 +10.64 +1.36
HOME # 50 Richmond 87 71 +5.66 +10.34
HOME #132 Iowa State 70 65 +14.05 -9.05
AWAY # 14 Kansas 65 79 -3.38 -10.62
HOME #165 Northeastern 73 51 +17.04 +4.96
AWAY # 18 Oklahoma 71 75 -2.32 -1.68
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma State 87 84 +0.79 +2.21
HOME # 20 Texas 70 72 +2.01 -4.01
AWAY # 1 Baylor -10.60 0.063
HOME # 82 TCU +9.60 0.869
HOME # 44 Oklahoma State +4.83 0.763
AWAY #163 Kansas State 69 47 +12.97 +9.03
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 88 87 +0.27 +0.73
HOME # 25 Florida 80 85 +2.96 -7.96
AWAY #132 Iowa State 76 72 +10.01 -6.01
HOME # 14 Kansas +0.66 0.527
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech -3.77 0.305
HOME # 18 Oklahoma +1.72 0.577
HOME # 1 Baylor -6.56 0.175
AWAY # 20 Texas -2.03 0.408
AWAY # 82 TCU +5.56 0.740
HOME #163 Kansas State +17.01 0.989
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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