predictions for Kansas State game

In Massey's composite of 41 different college basketball rankings, Kansas is #23.
Interestingly, of the ones I've been tracking, Pomeroy and the NCAA's NET come
closest to matching that with Kansas at #22.  Next closest is ESPN's BPI, which
has Kansas at #25.  The composite shows an incredible range, with Wilson having
Kansas as high as #3 and Seven Overtimes as low as #123 (as of Sunday, which was
the last time Massey updated the composite; as of today, Seven Overtimes has
Kansas at #119).  I do wonder about Wilson, given that his #1 teams in both
Division II and III have records of 0-0!  I guess playing a tough schedule counts
for something.

Something's gotta give today.  Both teams are on a string of below expectation
performances.  Kansas State has four in a row and seven of the last nine,
including that 23 point below expectation stinker of a performance in Waco.
Kansas has three in a row and four in the last five, with the one exception
being a mere 1 point above expectation, also in Waco.

The most optimistic of the various prognostications is the common opponents
comparison, where Kansas has a 27.9 point edge, or just 25.2 points if you
reduce the home court advantage to 2 points, as Sagarin currently has it.
Dunkel seems to be persuaded by common opponents, as he also has Kansas by 25.
The pessimist is Seven Overtimes, who has Kansas by a mere 4 points.  Just
how far out of whack is Seven Overtimes?  Well, the second lowest ranking for
Kansas in Massey's composite is Baker Bradley-Terry, who has Kansas at #54.
In other words, there is a bigger gap between the lowest ranking and the
second-lowest ranking than there is between the second-lowest and highest
rankings.  That's how far Seven Overtimes is out of whack.  Recall how
Seven Overtimes had Kansas State ranked so much higher than Kansas for much
of the season.  Heck, Kansas State even lost to Fort Hays State in a game
that counted for the Wildcats, but was only an exhibition for the Tigers.
And it wasn't even close (Fort Hays by 13).

Kansas State is overrated by 4 points, has a negative trend, has a negative
mental toughness rating, has the most impotent offense in the conference,
has the second-most impotent defense in the conference, plays the lowest
scoring games in the conference (136 total points), has the worst scoring
margin in the conference (losing by an average of 12 points per game), and
has played the seventh weakest schedule in the conference.  Shall we follow
mom's advice and "if you can't say something nice, say nothing at all"?
Okay, Kansas State is the fourth most consistent team in the Big 12.
Consistently bad, but consistent nonetheless!  At 8.8 points, they're more
consistent than the national average.  (West Virginia is the standard bearer
in the conference at 6.1 points.)  Kansas is currently the second-most
INconsistent team in the Big 12 at 12.5 points.  Which Jayhawk team will
show up today?  It doesn't get any easier than this, playing the conference's
worst team on your home court.

Another indication of just how far out of whack Seven Overtimes is comes
from the second-most pessimistic prediction for today's game, which is
Sagarin's "Recent Games" rating, which has Kansas by only 14.7 points.
Seven Overtimes thinks Kansas State will score 64 points, above their
season average of 62 points.  Their high-water mark was 76 points against
Milwaukee.  They gave up at least 100 points to Baylor, both times.

The Jayhawks have struggled to score of late, hitting at most 70 points in
the last six games.  The trip to Fort Worth and the home game against the
Mountaineers are the only times the Jayhawks have topped 70 points in
conference play.  But this is the first game against the bottom two teams
in the conference.  If you're looking for a breather, this should be it.

I think the goal here should not be to merely win the game, but to play
above expectation.  I'm going with 81 to 58.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     KSU      KU      Defensive Stats     KSU      KU
Points/Game         62.7    72.6     Opp Points/Game     73.4    69.1
Avg Score Margin   -10.6    +3.4     Opp Effective FG %  55.5    49.3
Assists/Game        13.9    13.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.7     9.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   32.5    37.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.5    24.8
Effective FG %      48.4    49.8     Blocks/Game          1.8     4.2
Off Rebound %       28.0    29.8     Steals/Game          5.1     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.263   0.310     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.5    16.2
Turnover %          20.0    15.6

Kansas has the advantage in seven of the eight offensive stats and in all
of the seven defensive categories.  The Wildcats dish 0.3 more assists per
game.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, seven in conference plus Omaha (Peyton Manning: OMAHA),
one of which Kansas State has played twice (Baylor) and two of which Kansas has played
twice (TCU, Oklahoma), giving us eleven scores to compare:

KU  +45 Oma at home (+41 neutral court)
KSU  +2 Oma at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +47 KSU at home (+43 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
KSU -31 BU  at home (-35 neutral court)     KSU -48 BU  on road (-44 neutral court)
KU  +35 KSU at home (+31 neutral court)     KU  +44 KSU at home (+40 neutral court)

KU   +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
KSU  -7 TCU at home (-11 neutral court)     KSU  -7 TCU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU  +48 KSU at home (+44 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KSU -11 TTU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +16 KSU at home (+12 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KSU -16 OSU at home (-20 neutral court)
KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)

KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
KSU -15 UT  on road (-11 neutral court)
KU  -14 KSU at home (-18 neutral court)

KU   -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU -26 OU  on road (-22 neutral court)     KSU -26 OU  on road (-22 neutral court)
KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)     KU  +26 KSU at home (+22 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
KSU -22 WVU at home (-26 neutral court)
KU  +40 KSU at home (+36 neutral court)

The Texas comparison favors Kansas State, but the rest favor Kansas, all by
double-digit margins.  The average is a whopping 27.9 points in favor the
Jayhawks, with a scatter of 18.0 points.  Changing the home court advantage
to just 2 points alters the margin to 25.2 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Mike McGuirl (guard)
most points        Nijel Pack (guard)
most rebounds      Dajuan Gordon (guard)
most assists       Nijel Pack (guard)
most steals        Nijel Pack (guard)
most blocks        Kaosi Ezeagu (forward)
most turnovers     Keon Johnson (guard)
most fouls         Kaosi Ezeagu (forward)

Their leading rebounder, Dajuan Gordon, left the previous game with a lower-leg
injury, and it isn't known as of this writing whether he'll be able to play.
Forward Montavious Murphy needs knee surgery and will be out for the rest of the
season; he was averaging 12.5 minutes (tenth on the team) and 2.75 points per
game (also tenth on the team).

                                                          11-6           5-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Kansas St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +17.18   76   58       91       # 17   #  3    #153   # 47
Sagarin Predictor      +18.01   76   58       95.3     # 14   #  3    #161   # 47 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +16.89   75   58       91       # 14   #  3    #146   # 47 
Sagarin Recent Games   +14.72   74   60       91       # 54   #  3    #208   # 47 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +19.60   77   57       93   
Massey                 +17.00   75   58       95       # 14   #  7    #183   # 76
Pomeroy                +14.96   72   57                # 22   #  3    #184   # 40
Greenfield             +17.50   75.5 58                # 18   #  3    #179   # 98
Dunkel                 +25.00   77.5 52.5              # 27           #203                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +18.00   75.5 57.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +17.11   77   60       93.6     # 30   #  3    #208   #108
Real Time              +21.00   84   63       83.4     # 34   #  9    #202   # 19 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   68   64       66       #119   #  6    #193   # 56
DPPI                   +20.20   79   59       97.3     # 41   #  5    #215   # 29
ESPN BPI               +18.70                 95.3     # 25   #  4    #229   # 34
Whitlock               +16.78                          # 27   # 12    #233   # 46
Colley Matrix          +17.97                          # 32   #  4    #193   # 31
NCAA NET                                               # 22           #233  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 96 * #   
common opponents       +25.18                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +17.76   75.8 58.6     90.2
scatter                  4.45    3.5  2.7      8.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is down to 17-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.16    -4.84
NEUT   #225 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.25    +1.75
NEUT   # 54 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.05    -2.05
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #149 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.36   -13.36
HOME   # 17 Creighton                   73  72    +2.17    -1.17
HOME   #270 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +25.07   +19.93
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  58  57    -2.65    +3.65
HOME   # 18 West Virginia               79  65    +2.79   +11.21
HOME   # 19 Texas                       59  84    +2.83   -27.83
AWAY   # 85 TCU                         93  64    +6.93   +22.07
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    63  59    +2.86    +1.14
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma State              70  75    +1.67    -6.67
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -9.07    +1.07
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    68  75    -1.20    -5.80
HOME   # 85 TCU                         59  51   +10.99    -2.99
AWAY   #  7 Tennessee                   61  80    -3.75   -15.25
HOME   #161 Kansas State                         +18.02             0.953
AWAY   # 18 West Virginia                         -1.27             0.448
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma State                        +5.73             0.712
HOME   #126 Iowa State                           +14.87             0.884
AWAY   #126 Iowa State                           +10.81             0.807
AWAY   #161 Kansas State                         +13.96             0.903
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +1.41             0.552
AWAY   # 19 Texas                                 -1.23             0.457
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -5.01             0.315

Here is Kansas State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 59 Drake                       70  80    -8.31    -1.69
HOME   # 25 Colorado                    58  76   -12.25    -5.75
HOME   #221 Kansas City(UMKC)           62  58    +6.10    -2.10
HOME   #120 UNLV                        58  68    -2.00    -8.00
Div2        Fort Hays State             68  81
HOME   #240 Milwaukee                   76  75    +7.06    -6.06
AWAY   #126 Iowa State                  74  65    -5.18   +14.18
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      69 100   -21.00   -10.00
HOME   #313 Jacksonville                70  46   +11.90   +12.10
HOME   #270 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           60  58    +9.08    -7.08
HOME   # 85 TCU                         60  67    -5.00    -2.00
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  71  82   -18.64    +7.64
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma State              54  70   -10.26    -5.74
HOME   #126 Iowa State                            -1.12             0.458
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       67  82   -17.22    +2.22
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    50  76   -17.19    -8.81
HOME   # 18 West Virginia               47  69   -13.20    -8.80
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      59 107   -25.06   -22.94
HOME   #117 Texas A&M                   61  68    -2.23    -4.77
AWAY   # 14 Kansas                               -18.02             0.047
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                           -14.58             0.049
HOME   # 19 Texas                                -13.16             0.088
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma State                       -14.32             0.040
HOME   # 14 Kansas                               -13.96             0.097
AWAY   # 85 TCU                                   -9.06             0.176
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                             -13.13             0.099
AWAY   # 18 West Virginia                        -17.26             0.011