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latest Big 12 projection

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3 years 9 months ago #26244 by asteroid
                      Jan2    Jan9    Jan16   Jan24   Curr.
Pred                  Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins    Wins    Wins    Wins    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  Baylor          14.6    15.4    16.0    16.5    16.5     8  0  @UT  (Tu)   BU  by  6.1
# 20  Oklahoma         8.9     9.6     9.9    10.7    11.4     6  3  @TTU (Mo)              
# 17  Texas           10.4    11.7    11.8    11.8    11.1     5  2   BU  (Tu)              
# 11  Kansas          13.2    12.2    11.8    11.0    11.1     5  4   KSU (Tu)   KU  by 17.7
# 13  Texas Tech      11.1    10.1    11.1    11.1    10.6     4  4   OU  (Mo)   TT  by  3.4
# 18  West Virginia   10.7    10.7     9.7    10.0    10.4     4  3  @ISU (Tu)   WVU by  9.3
# 49  Oklahoma State   6.8     7.5     8.5     8.1     8.6     4  4  @TCU (We)   OSU by  3.4
# 90  TCU              6.4     6.3     5.6     5.6     5.5     2  5   OSU (We)              
#102  Iowa State       3.7     3.4     3.0     3.0     2.7     0  6   WVU (Tu)              
#145  Kansas State     4.2     3.1     2.6     2.2     2.1     1  8  @KU  (Tu)              

Road wins (22 out of 39)              Home losses                       Differential (RW-HL)
------------------------------------  --------------------------------  --------------------
5 Baylor         KSU ISU TCU TTU OSU  0 Baylor                          +5 Baylor        
3 Oklahoma State TTU KSU ISU          1 Kansas         UT               +1 Kansas        
3 Texas Tech     OU  ISU UT           1 Oklahoma       TTU              +1 Oklahoma      
2 Kansas         TTU TCU              1 West Virginia  UT               +1 West Virginia 
2 Oklahoma       TCU UT               2 Texas          TT  OU            0 Oklahoma State
2 TCU            OSU KSU              3 Oklahoma State TCU WVU BU        0 Texas         
2 Texas          KU  WVU              3 TCU            OU  KU  BU        0 Texas Tech    
2 West Virginia  OSU KSU              3 Texas Tech     KU  OSU BU       -1 TCU           
1 Kansas State   ISU                  4 Iowa State     KSU BU  TTU OSU  -3 Kansas State  
0 Iowa State                          4 Kansas State   BU  TCU OSU WVU  -4 Iowa State    

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +4.96    West Virginia     6.05
Texas           +2.85    Oklahoma State    7.49
Oklahoma        +1.93    Baylor            7.92
Oklahoma State  +1.31    Kansas State      8.81
Texas Tech      +1.09    Texas Tech        8.82
West Virginia   -0.28    TCU              10.54
Kansas          -1.75    Texas            10.57
TCU             -2.39    Oklahoma         11.44
Kansas State    -3.98    Kansas           12.45
Iowa State      -7.47    Iowa State       12.52

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma State  +0.74 +/- 0.42    Oklahoma State  +0.30 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        +0.73 +/- 0.68    Texas           +0.26 +/- 0.34
West Virginia   -0.18 +/- 0.34    Iowa State      +0.14 +/- 0.29
Baylor          -0.21 +/- 0.44    Baylor          -0.04 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      -0.35 +/- 0.44    TCU             -0.05 +/- 0.26
Kansas          -0.38 +/- 0.69    Texas Tech      -0.17 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    -0.51 +/- 0.43    Oklahoma        -0.21 +/- 0.27
TCU             -0.58 +/- 0.57    West Virginia   -0.22 +/- 0.23
Texas           -0.67 +/- 0.70    Kansas State    -0.28 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -1.35 +/- 1.18    Kansas          -0.38 +/- 0.33

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          86.88   Baylor          62.81   Baylor          149.69   Baylor          +24.06
Oklahoma State  76.73   Texas Tech      62.94   Oklahoma State  148.07   Texas Tech      +11.88
Oklahoma        76.20   Texas           67.21   West Virginia   146.00   Texas            +8.21
West Virginia   75.56   Oklahoma        68.00   Oklahoma        144.20   Oklahoma         +8.20
Texas           75.43   Kansas          69.25   Iowa State      143.73   Oklahoma State   +5.40
Texas Tech      74.82   West Virginia   70.44   Texas           142.64   West Virginia    +5.12
Kansas          72.44   TCU             71.00   Kansas          141.69   Kansas           +3.19
TCU             68.06   Oklahoma State  71.33   TCU             139.06   TCU              -2.94
Iowa State      66.00   Kansas State    74.18   Texas Tech      137.76   Iowa State      -11.73
Kansas State    61.88   Iowa State      77.73   Kansas State    136.06   Kansas State    -12.29

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          83.87 (  3)
Iowa State      81.17 ( 18)
West Virginia   81.16 ( 19)
Texas           80.23 ( 29)
Oklahoma        80.14 ( 31)
Oklahoma State  79.50 ( 38)
Kansas State    79.29 ( 46)
TCU             78.90 ( 51)
Texas Tech      76.65 ( 74)
Baylor          75.80 ( 90)
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk

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3 years 9 months ago #26250 by CorpusJayhawk
Here is the Big 12 Projection from the DPPI.

1. Baylor leads with 8 victories.



2. For all intents and purposes, the Big 12 race is over. At least for 1st place. It is a very exciting race for 2nd with 6 teams all with potential to win.



Or if you prefer a graphical view.



You can see there are really 5 tiers of teams in the Big 12. Baylor all by itself. Then OU, Texas, WVU, Kansas, Texas Tech and OSU all within striking distance. TCU all by itself in 8th. Iowa St. and K-State vying for the cellar.



These are some interesting graphs. The first is a well a team has done compared to the DPPI projection in Big 12 play. You can see that Kansas has won almost 1 game more than the DPPI projected. That is the good news. The bad news is Kansas currently ranks 41st in the DPPI.

The 2nd graph is simply a comparison to the current projection of Big 12 wins to the projection at the start of Big 12 play. This is a direct measure of team improvement. You can see that KU has improved from 9.4 projected victories at the start of conference play to the current 10.7 victories. Again, that is more of a statement of how poorly KU was ranked at the beginning of Big 12 play. FWIW, in Massey;s current composite of computer rankings, KU is 20th.



FWIW, this is a sampling of the data and analysis that is on my website at DPPI Website

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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