×
Message from Dave..... Moderator Approval

Don't panic if your post doesn't appear immediately.

× Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball

Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage

predictions for Tennessee game

  • asteroid
  • asteroid's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
More
3 years 9 months ago #26226 by asteroid
I guess what bothered me the most about the TCU game is how you're coming off
a three-game skid, there is talk about how to stir things up a bit, you're
playing an opponent projected to finish eighth in the conference, you're at
home, but you play an abysmal first half.  Only 18 points.  Ugly.  That
alone seemed enough to convince me that the pressure to end the skid had the
team tighter than the knot in DMac's shoe (he didn't have to re-tie after
the shoe came off).  Anyway, the second half was better, and they avoided
setting a record for scoring futility this season (the 58 against Tech is
the low-water mark, and that was a win).

Pomeroy has Tennessee with the #2 defense after Baylor, against whom we
scored 69 on the road, so surely we can get to 70, right?  Not if Wilson
has a goose egg.  Not if Braun can't find an open shot.

Kansas has been averaging 141.7 total points, while Tennessee has been
averaging 132.0 total points.  Yet for some reason, Sagarin has the point
total at 130.8, while Massey and Vegas have it as 130, and Dunkel has it
as 126.  Their scoring algorithms apparently favor defense.

The pessimist this time around is the common opponent St. Joseph's, whom
Tennessee destroyed by 36 points, while Kansas only beat them by 22 after
that opening loss to the Zags.  That's a 14 point difference, independent
of the assumed home court advantage.  Dunkel is the next-most pessimistic,
expecting the Jayhawks to lose by 8.  The DPPI and the BPI are next at
5.6 and 5.4 points in favor of the Vols.  The more reliable prognosticators
have it in the 2 point range, making it a one-possession game that could
easily go either way.  Greenfield had it at 2.5 points last night, but the
margin has increased to 3.5 points by today.

Are there any optimists?  Pomeroy has Kansas ranked one spot ahead of
Tennessee, with a large enough difference in offensive efficiency (0.034
points per possession) to offset the difference in defensive efficiency
(0.029 points per possession) and this season's tiny home court advantage,
so the numbers suggest that Kansas might have a fractional point edge,
while Whitlock's ratings are sufficiently different that after application
of the scaling factor and the home court advantage, Kansas would still come
out on top by a fraction of a point.  The most optimistic is Sagarin's
Recent Games ratings, which gives Kansas a 1.57 point edge.

Ah, those recent games.  Tennessee was humiliated by Florida (26 point loss),
then limped home and lost to Missouri (by 9 points), then had a lackluster
3 point win over Mississippi State, playing 8 points below expectation in
the process.  The Vols' trend is -2.06 points per game, and their mental
toughness rating is -0.67, compared to the Kansas trend of -0.04 points per
game, with a mental toughness rating of -0.31.  That is, neither team has
looked particularly impressive in their recent games.  Tennessee's inconsistency
is at 14.6 points, compared to Kansas' 12.2 points, among the worst in the
Big 12.  You get the feeling that the winner of today's game will be the
team that sucks less?  Expectations for a stellar performance by either or
both teams just aren't there, but in this wacky season, how many times have
games turned out to he the opposite of expectation?

Seven Overtimes is once again still showing all of today's games with predicted
scores of 60-60, with 60 percent confidence, and again I'm not going to wait
any longer to post the summary, so we'll have to do without Seven Overtimes.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Tenn     KU      Defensive Stats     Tenn     KU
Points/Game         72.7    73.3     Opp Points/Game     59.3    68.4
Avg Score Margin   +13.4    +4.9     Opp Effective FG %  45.4    48.6
Assists/Game        15.2    13.5     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.2    10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.1    38.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.8    25.2
Effective FG %      49.8    50.2     Blocks/Game          5.1     4.5
Off Rebound %       32.0    31.1     Steals/Game          7.6     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.388   0.303     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.1    16.1
Turnover %          14.0    16.0

Kansas has the advantage in just three of the eight offensive stats and in
just three of the seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely St. Joseph's:

KU   +22 StJ  neutral (+22 neutral court)
Tenn +36 StJ  at home (+32 neutral court)
KU   -14 Tenn on road (-10 neutral court)

The comparison is independent of the assumed value for the home court advantage,
given that Kansas played St. Joseph's on a neutral court, so the home court
advantage doesn't come into play, and Tennessee played St. Joseph's and will
play Kansas at home, so whatever value you use is the same for both games.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most points        John Fulkerson (forward)
most rebounds      John Fulkerson (forward)
most assists       Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most steals        Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most blocks        Yves Pons (guard)
most turnovers     Keon Johnson (guard)
most fouls         Santiago Vescovi (guard)

Forward Corey Walker Jr. is out for an undetermined length of time for an
unspecified reason; he hasn't played this season.

                                                          11-5           11-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Tennessee
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -1.36   65   66       45       # 13   #  3    # 16   # 74
Sagarin Predictor       -2.17   64   66       43.6     # 13   #  3    # 10   # 74 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -1.12   65   66       45       # 14   #  3    # 17   # 74 
Sagarin Recent Games    +1.57   66   65       45       # 29   #  3    # 55   # 74 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -0.32   65   66       49   
Massey                  -2.00   64   66       44       # 10   # 10    # 22   # 76
Pomeroy                 +0.33   63   62                # 18   #  3    # 19   # 73
Greenfield              -3.50   63.5 67                # 16   #  3    # 15   # 40
Dunkel                  -8.00   59   67                # 20           # 15                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.00   63.5 66.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -1.90   64   66       43.1     # 21   #  4    # 17   # 28
Real Time               -5.00   62   67       39.0     # 23   #  8    # 19   # 76 
Seven Overtimes           .                            #109   #  5    # 39   # 55
DPPI                    -5.60   66   72       32.8     # 32   #  6    # 13   # 64
ESPN BPI                -5.40                 29.6     # 21   # 11    # 10   # 67
Whitlock                +0.51                          # 21   # 14    # 25   # 58
Colley Matrix           -0.97                          # 28   #  5    # 24   # 58
NCAA NET                                               # 19           # 12  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 61 * #   
common opponents       -14.00                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -3.05   63.8 66.3     41.6
scatter                  3.77    1.9  2.1      6.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 18-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Gonzaga                     90 102    -6.59    -5.41
NEUT   #218 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.51    +1.49
NEUT   # 56 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.97    -2.97
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #149 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.75   -13.75
HOME   # 15 Creighton                   73  72    +2.37    -1.37
HOME   #268 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +25.72   +19.28
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  58  57    -2.08    +3.08
HOME   # 18 West Virginia               79  65    +3.04   +10.96
HOME   # 19 Texas                       59  84    +3.15   -28.15
AWAY   # 84 TCU                         93  64    +7.62   +21.38
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                    63  59    +3.31    +0.69
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma State              70  75    +2.28    -7.28
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                      69  77    -8.86    +0.86
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    68  75    -0.65    -6.35
HOME   # 84 TCU                         59  51   +11.58    -3.58
AWAY   # 10 Tennessee                             -2.17             0.436
HOME   #148 Kansas State                         +17.73             0.958
AWAY   # 18 West Virginia                         -0.92             0.462
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma State                        +6.24             0.736
HOME   #118 Iowa State                           +14.31             0.907
AWAY   #118 Iowa State                           +10.35             0.831
AWAY   #148 Kansas State                         +13.77             0.910
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +1.88             0.568
AWAY   # 19 Texas                                 -0.81             0.472
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -4.90             0.308

Here is Tennessee's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 22 Colorado                    56  47    +3.80    +5.20
HOME   # 81 Cincinnati                  65  56   +11.35    -2.35
HOME   #178 Appalachian State           79  38   +20.26   +20.74
HOME   #318 Tennessee Tech             103  49   +29.14   +24.86
HOME   #218 Saint Joseph's-Pa.         102  66   +22.68   +13.32
HOME   #311 USC Upstate                 80  60   +28.69    -8.69
AWAY   # 36 Missouri                    73  53    +1.86   +18.14
HOME   # 11 Alabama                     63  71    +1.98    -9.98
HOME   # 20 Arkansas                    79  74    +3.47    +1.53
AWAY   #122 Texas A&M                   68  54   +10.84    +3.16
HOME   #139 Vanderbilt                  81  61   +16.45    +3.55
AWAY   # 25 Florida                     49  75    +0.97   -26.97
HOME   # 36 Missouri                    64  73    +5.82   -14.82
HOME   # 79 Mississippi State           56  53   +11.18    -8.18
HOME   # 13 Kansas                                +2.17             0.564
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Share this page:

 

Powered by Kunena Forum