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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Tennessee game
- asteroid
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3 years 9 months ago #26226
by asteroid
I guess what bothered me the most about the TCU game is how you're coming off
a three-game skid, there is talk about how to stir things up a bit, you're
playing an opponent projected to finish eighth in the conference, you're at
home, but you play an abysmal first half. Only 18 points. Ugly. That
alone seemed enough to convince me that the pressure to end the skid had the
team tighter than the knot in DMac's shoe (he didn't have to re-tie after
the shoe came off). Anyway, the second half was better, and they avoided
setting a record for scoring futility this season (the 58 against Tech is
the low-water mark, and that was a win).
Pomeroy has Tennessee with the #2 defense after Baylor, against whom we
scored 69 on the road, so surely we can get to 70, right? Not if Wilson
has a goose egg. Not if Braun can't find an open shot.
Kansas has been averaging 141.7 total points, while Tennessee has been
averaging 132.0 total points. Yet for some reason, Sagarin has the point
total at 130.8, while Massey and Vegas have it as 130, and Dunkel has it
as 126. Their scoring algorithms apparently favor defense.
The pessimist this time around is the common opponent St. Joseph's, whom
Tennessee destroyed by 36 points, while Kansas only beat them by 22 after
that opening loss to the Zags. That's a 14 point difference, independent
of the assumed home court advantage. Dunkel is the next-most pessimistic,
expecting the Jayhawks to lose by 8. The DPPI and the BPI are next at
5.6 and 5.4 points in favor of the Vols. The more reliable prognosticators
have it in the 2 point range, making it a one-possession game that could
easily go either way. Greenfield had it at 2.5 points last night, but the
margin has increased to 3.5 points by today.
Are there any optimists? Pomeroy has Kansas ranked one spot ahead of
Tennessee, with a large enough difference in offensive efficiency (0.034
points per possession) to offset the difference in defensive efficiency
(0.029 points per possession) and this season's tiny home court advantage,
so the numbers suggest that Kansas might have a fractional point edge,
while Whitlock's ratings are sufficiently different that after application
of the scaling factor and the home court advantage, Kansas would still come
out on top by a fraction of a point. The most optimistic is Sagarin's
Recent Games ratings, which gives Kansas a 1.57 point edge.
Ah, those recent games. Tennessee was humiliated by Florida (26 point loss),
then limped home and lost to Missouri (by 9 points), then had a lackluster
3 point win over Mississippi State, playing 8 points below expectation in
the process. The Vols' trend is -2.06 points per game, and their mental
toughness rating is -0.67, compared to the Kansas trend of -0.04 points per
game, with a mental toughness rating of -0.31. That is, neither team has
looked particularly impressive in their recent games. Tennessee's inconsistency
is at 14.6 points, compared to Kansas' 12.2 points, among the worst in the
Big 12. You get the feeling that the winner of today's game will be the
team that sucks less? Expectations for a stellar performance by either or
both teams just aren't there, but in this wacky season, how many times have
games turned out to he the opposite of expectation?
Seven Overtimes is once again still showing all of today's games with predicted
scores of 60-60, with 60 percent confidence, and again I'm not going to wait
any longer to post the summary, so we'll have to do without Seven Overtimes.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Tenn KU Defensive Stats Tenn KU
Points/Game 72.7 73.3 Opp Points/Game 59.3 68.4
Avg Score Margin +13.4 +4.9 Opp Effective FG % 45.4 48.6
Assists/Game 15.2 13.5 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.2 10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.1 38.1 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.8 25.2
Effective FG % 49.8 50.2 Blocks/Game 5.1 4.5
Off Rebound % 32.0 31.1 Steals/Game 7.6 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.388 0.303 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.1 16.1
Turnover % 14.0 16.0
Kansas has the advantage in just three of the eight offensive stats and in
just three of the seven defensive categories.
Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely St. Joseph's:
KU +22 StJ neutral (+22 neutral court)
Tenn +36 StJ at home (+32 neutral court)
KU -14 Tenn on road (-10 neutral court)
The comparison is independent of the assumed value for the home court advantage,
given that Kansas played St. Joseph's on a neutral court, so the home court
advantage doesn't come into play, and Tennessee played St. Joseph's and will
play Kansas at home, so whatever value you use is the same for both games.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most points John Fulkerson (forward)
most rebounds John Fulkerson (forward)
most assists Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most steals Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most blocks Yves Pons (guard)
most turnovers Keon Johnson (guard)
most fouls Santiago Vescovi (guard)
Forward Corey Walker Jr. is out for an undetermined length of time for an
unspecified reason; he hasn't played this season.
11-5 11-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Tennessee
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall -1.36 65 66 45 # 13 # 3 # 16 # 74
Sagarin Predictor -2.17 64 66 43.6 # 13 # 3 # 10 # 74
Sagarin Golden Mean -1.12 65 66 45 # 14 # 3 # 17 # 74
Sagarin Recent Games +1.57 66 65 45 # 29 # 3 # 55 # 74
Sagarin Eigenvector -0.32 65 66 49
Massey -2.00 64 66 44 # 10 # 10 # 22 # 76
Pomeroy +0.33 63 62 # 18 # 3 # 19 # 73
Greenfield -3.50 63.5 67 # 16 # 3 # 15 # 40
Dunkel -8.00 59 67 # 20 # 15
Vegas (via Dunkel) -3.00 63.5 66.5
Dolphin Predictive -1.90 64 66 43.1 # 21 # 4 # 17 # 28
Real Time -5.00 62 67 39.0 # 23 # 8 # 19 # 76
Seven Overtimes . #109 # 5 # 39 # 55
DPPI -5.60 66 72 32.8 # 32 # 6 # 13 # 64
ESPN BPI -5.40 29.6 # 21 # 11 # 10 # 67
Whitlock +0.51 # 21 # 14 # 25 # 58
Colley Matrix -0.97 # 28 # 5 # 24 # 58
NCAA NET # 19 # 12
LRMC # 2 * # # 61 * #
common opponents -14.00
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -3.05 63.8 66.3 41.6
scatter 3.77 1.9 2.1 6.1
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 18-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 90 102 -6.59 -5.41
NEUT #218 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +20.51 +1.49
NEUT # 56 Kentucky 65 62 +5.97 -2.97
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #149 North Dakota State 65 61 +17.75 -13.75
HOME # 15 Creighton 73 72 +2.37 -1.37
HOME #268 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +25.72 +19.28
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 58 57 -2.08 +3.08
HOME # 18 West Virginia 79 65 +3.04 +10.96
HOME # 19 Texas 59 84 +3.15 -28.15
AWAY # 84 TCU 93 64 +7.62 +21.38
HOME # 21 Oklahoma 63 59 +3.31 +0.69
AWAY # 43 Oklahoma State 70 75 +2.28 -7.28
AWAY # 1 Baylor 69 77 -8.86 +0.86
AWAY # 21 Oklahoma 68 75 -0.65 -6.35
HOME # 84 TCU 59 51 +11.58 -3.58
AWAY # 10 Tennessee -2.17 0.436
HOME #148 Kansas State +17.73 0.958
AWAY # 18 West Virginia -0.92 0.462
HOME # 43 Oklahoma State +6.24 0.736
HOME #118 Iowa State +14.31 0.907
AWAY #118 Iowa State +10.35 0.831
AWAY #148 Kansas State +13.77 0.910
HOME # 12 Texas Tech +1.88 0.568
AWAY # 19 Texas -0.81 0.472
HOME # 1 Baylor -4.90 0.308
Here is Tennessee's season to date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME # 22 Colorado 56 47 +3.80 +5.20
HOME # 81 Cincinnati 65 56 +11.35 -2.35
HOME #178 Appalachian State 79 38 +20.26 +20.74
HOME #318 Tennessee Tech 103 49 +29.14 +24.86
HOME #218 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 102 66 +22.68 +13.32
HOME #311 USC Upstate 80 60 +28.69 -8.69
AWAY # 36 Missouri 73 53 +1.86 +18.14
HOME # 11 Alabama 63 71 +1.98 -9.98
HOME # 20 Arkansas 79 74 +3.47 +1.53
AWAY #122 Texas A&M 68 54 +10.84 +3.16
HOME #139 Vanderbilt 81 61 +16.45 +3.55
AWAY # 25 Florida 49 75 +0.97 -26.97
HOME # 36 Missouri 64 73 +5.82 -14.82
HOME # 79 Mississippi State 56 53 +11.18 -8.18
HOME # 13 Kansas +2.17 0.564
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk
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