predictions for TCU game

Seven Overtimes is still showing all of today's games with predicted scores of
60-60, with 60 percent confidence, but I can't wait any longer to post the
summary, so we'll have to do without Seven Overtimes.

Dunkel is the most optimistic with Kansas winning by 21 points.  Colley is the
pessimist at just 5 points.  I'm shocked that RealTime has it at just 9 points,
considering how he tends to use such a large home court advantage.  The
average is 12 points, a little less than Vegas' 14.5 points.

Kansas averages 144 total points while TCU averages 137 total points,
suggesting Kansas 76, TCU 64.  Go Jayhawks!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TCU      KU      Defensive Stats     TCU      KU
Points/Game         67.7    74.4     Opp Points/Game     69.1    69.6
Avg Score Margin    -1.4    +4.7     Opp Effective FG %  49.2    49.0
Assists/Game        14.2    13.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.4    10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.1    38.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.2    25.1
Effective FG %      51.7    50.6     Blocks/Game          3.9     4.3
Off Rebound %       26.9    31.5     Steals/Game          5.9     6.2
FTA/FGA            0.326   0.305     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.4    16.3
Turnover %          17.9    15.8

Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight offensive stats and in
five of the seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, three in conference plus North Dakota State, one of
which both teams have played twice, namely Oklahoma (so I'll use only the home-home
and road-road permutations), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us six scores
to compare:

KU   +4 NDS at home (  0 neutral court)
TCU  +7 NDS at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +1 TCU at home ( -3 neutral court)

KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
TCU  -4 OU  at home ( -8 neutral court)     TCU -36 OU  on road (-32 neutral court)
KU  +12 TCU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +33 TCU at home (+29 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
TCU  +1 OSU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU   -2 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
TCU -18 BU  at home (-22 neutral court)
KU  +22 TCU at home (+18 neutral court)

KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
KU  +37 TCU at home (+33 neutral court)

The Oklahoma State comparison favors TCU, but the rest favor Kansas.  The average
is 17.2 points, with a scatter of 16.3 points.  Reduce the home court advantage to
just 12 points, and the average drops to 14.2 points with a scatter of 15.6 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       RJ Nembhard (guard)
most points        RJ Nembhard (guard)
most rebounds      Kevin Samuel (center)
most assists       RJ Nembhard (guard)
most steals        Kevin Samuel (center)
most blocks        Kevin Samuel (center)
most turnovers     RJ Nembhard (guard)
most fouls         Kevin Samuel (center)

Two-man show for TCU!  Guard Francisco Farabello didn't play in the previous
game, which was a while ago, due to a calf injury.  Thompson is still out with
his surgically repaired finger.

                                                          10-5            9-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +11.59   75   64       84       # 10   #  3    # 83   # 61
Sagarin Predictor      +11.98   76   64       84.3     # 11   #  3    # 88   # 61 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +11.50   75   64       84       #  9   #  3    # 75   # 61 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.75   74   65       84       # 32   #  3    # 97   # 61 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +11.68   75   64            
Massey                 +13.00   75   62       90       # 10   #  7    # 85   # 62
Pomeroy                 +9.74   71   62                # 16   #  3    # 93   # 68
Greenfield             +14.50   75.5 61                # 16   #  1    # 99   # 81
Dunkel                 +21.00   80.5 59.5              # 24           # 64                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +14.50   75   61                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +12.60   76   63       86.5     # 21   #  3    #127   # 81
Real Time               +9.00   79   70       67.3     # 30   #  7    # 65   # 64 
Seven Overtimes           .                            #114   #  5    # 93   # 75
DPPI                   +10.80   77   66       83.3     # 29   #  5    #104   # 66
ESPN BPI               +11.70                 86.4     # 20   #  6    #108   # 59
Whitlock                +8.96                          # 22   # 10    #103   # 55
Colley Matrix           +4.92                          # 28   #  5    # 64   # 67
NCAA NET                                               # 18           #100  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       #110 * #   
common opponents       +14.17                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +11.85   75.7 63.5     83.3
scatter                  3.35    2.3  2.7      6.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is down to 17-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Gonzaga                     90 102    -6.31    -5.69
NEUT   #217 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.58    +1.42
NEUT   # 57 Kentucky                    65  62    +6.18    -3.18
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #150 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.92   -13.92
HOME   # 15 Creighton                   73  72    +2.43    -1.43
HOME   #262 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +25.15   +19.85
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  58  57    -1.79    +2.79
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               79  65    +3.08   +10.92
HOME   # 19 Texas                       59  84    +3.32   -28.32
AWAY   # 88 TCU                         93  64    +8.02   +20.98
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    63  59    +3.52    +0.48
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State              70  75    +2.38    -7.38
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                      69  77    -8.57    +0.57
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    68  75    -0.44    -6.56
HOME   # 88 TCU                                  +11.98             0.843
AWAY   # 10 Tennessee                             -2.01             0.433
HOME   #149 Kansas State                         +17.90             0.955
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                         -0.88             0.465
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State                        +6.34             0.733
HOME   #118 Iowa State                           +14.43             0.903
AWAY   #118 Iowa State                           +10.47             0.828
AWAY   #149 Kansas State                         +13.94             0.906
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +2.17             0.576
AWAY   # 19 Texas                                 -0.64             0.478
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -4.61             0.324

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #335 Houston Baptist             69  45   +21.01    +2.99
NEUT   # 90 Tulsa                       70  65    +0.18    +4.82
NEUT   #104 Liberty                     56  52    +1.69    +2.31
HOME   #325 Northwestern State          74  68   +19.69   -13.69
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    78  82    -6.48    +2.48
HOME   # 52 Providence                  70  79    -2.61    -6.39
HOME   #124 Texas A&M                   73  55    +4.78   +13.22
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State              77  76    -7.62    +8.62
HOME   #150 North Dakota State          89  82    +7.92    -0.92
HOME   #234 Prairie View A&M            66  61   +13.36    -8.36
AWAY   #149 Kansas State                67  60    +3.94    +3.06
HOME   # 11 Kansas                      64  93    -8.02   -20.98
HOME   #  1 Baylor                      49  67   -14.61    -3.39
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    46  82   -10.44   -25.56
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                        -10.88             0.110
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            -7.83             0.224
HOME   # 19 Texas                                 -6.68             0.272
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                               -11.98             0.157
AWAY   # 34 Missouri                              -8.08             0.232
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State                        -3.66             0.345
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                               -18.57             0.020
HOME   #118 Iowa State                            +4.43             0.669
AWAY   # 19 Texas                                -10.64             0.166
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                           -11.79             0.127
HOME   #149 Kansas State                          +7.90             0.795
HOME   # 17 West Virginia                         -6.92             0.218
AWAY   #118 Iowa State                            +0.47             0.518