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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
- asteroid
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3 years 10 months ago #26178
by asteroid
The last early tip of the season, thank goodness. I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS.
But everybody has their predictions up, EXCEPT for Sagarin, though I can
use yesterday's ratings to make a prediction that shouldn't be too
different considering how few major teams play on Friday.
Even Whitlock is finally on board for this season.
I do question the prediction from Seven Overtimes. Bashuk has Oklahoma
ranked 14 spots higher than Kansas, and the Sooners are at home, yet he
has Kansas favored by 2 points. Go figure.
RealTime, with that enormous home court advantage, which is especially
questionable this season, is the most pessimistic, with Kansas losing by
9 points. Colley is the most optimistic, with the ratings difference
implying a Kansas win by 7 points. The main prognosticators are mixed.
Pomeroy has Kansas by a couple, but Massey has Oklahoma by a couple.
Greenfield likes Kansas by a couple, but the BPI likes Oklahoma by a
couple. The average is a fraction of a point, so don't be surprised
by overtime.
Both teams average 144+ total points. Both have comparable inconsistencies.
Oklahoma is coming off of a couple strongly above expectation performances,
while Kansas has had three consecutive weakly below expectation performances.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 77.7 74.8 Opp Points/Game 66.8 69.2
Avg Score Margin +10.8 +5.6 Opp Effective FG % 48.5 48.7
Assists/Game 15.7 13.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.3 11.2
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.2 39.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.5 25.2
Effective FG % 51.4 50.4 Blocks/Game 3.9 4.5
Off Rebound % 27.8 33.4 Steals/Game 7.9 6.2
FTA/FGA 0.278 0.308 Personal Fouls/Gm 13.8 16.0
Turnover % 12.7 15.8
Kansas has the advantage in just three of the eight offensive stats and in
just three of the seven defensive categories.
Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all in conference, one of which Oklahoma has
played twice, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us six scores to compare:
KU +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court) KU +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
OU +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral court) OU +36 TCU at home (+32 neutral court)
KU +21 OU on road (+25 neutral court) KU -3 OU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OU -2 TTU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +7 OU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
OU +4 WVU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +6 OU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU -8 BU on road ( -4 neutral court)
OU -15 BU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -4 OU on road ( 0 neutral court)
These six average to 5.0 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 9.1 points.
If we instead make the home court advantage just 2 points, the average becomes
6 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 9.5 points. The comparisons are
mostly comparable, except for Oklahoma's performance In Fort Worth.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Austin Reeves (guard)
most points Austin Reeves (guard)
most rebounds Austin Reeves (guard)
most assists Austin Reeves (guard)
most steals Elijah Harkless (guard)
most blocks Kur Kuath (forward)
most turnovers Austin Reeves (guard)
most fouls Victor Iwuakor (forward)
No indication that second-leading scorer Brady Manek will not be able to play
this time around. Sooners may be at full strength, while the Jayhawks will be
missing Thompson and sunglasses.
10-4 8-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall . # 8 # 4 # 21 # 58
Sagarin Predictor +0.21 72 72 50.6 # 9 # 4 # 20 # 58
Sagarin Golden Mean . # 8 # 4 # 24 # 58
Sagarin Recent Games . # 21 # 4 # 30 # 58
Sagarin Eigenvector .
Massey -2.00 69 71 46 # 10 # 12 # 27 # 56
Pomeroy +2.27 70 68 # 14 # 4 # 26 # 70
Greenfield +1.50 72 70.5 # 14 # 2 # 21 # 33
Dunkel -4.00 71.5 75.5 # 17 # 42
Vegas (via Dunkel) +1.00 71.5 70.5
Dolphin Predictive -0.32 71 71 48.9 # 22 # 3 # 21 # 35
Real Time -9.00 70 79 33.0 # 26 # 17 # 51 # 67
Seven Overtimes +2.00 69 67 62 # 84 # 5 # 75 # 66
DPPI -2.66 72 75 41.8 # 35 # 23 # 33 # 96
ESPN BPI -2.20 41.7 # 18 # 13 # 17 # 48
Whitlock +1.49 # 23 # 13 # 31 # 48
Colley Matrix +7.23 # 15 # 16 # 56 # 38
NCAA NET # 18 # 31
LRMC # 2 * # # 40 * #
common opponents +6.00
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +0.11 70.8 72.0 46.3
scatter 4.07 1.2 3.6 9.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 18-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 90 102 -5.17 -6.83
NEUT #211 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +20.15 +1.85
NEUT # 61 Kentucky 65 62 +7.22 -4.22
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #152 North Dakota State 65 61 +18.10 -14.10
HOME # 15 Creighton 73 72 +2.95 -1.95
HOME #264 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +25.27 +19.73
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 58 57 -1.63 +2.63
HOME # 19 West Virginia 79 65 +4.02 +9.98
HOME # 18 Texas 59 84 +3.63 -28.63
AWAY # 87 TCU 93 64 +8.11 +20.89
HOME # 20 Oklahoma 63 59 +4.17 -0.17
AWAY # 42 Oklahoma State 70 75 +2.90 -7.90
AWAY # 1 Baylor 69 77 -7.69 -0.31
AWAY # 20 Oklahoma +0.21 0.506
HOME # 87 TCU +12.07 0.836
AWAY # 7 Tennessee -2.71 0.412
HOME #138 Kansas State +16.71 0.938
AWAY # 19 West Virginia +0.06 0.502
HOME # 42 Oklahoma State +6.86 0.741
HOME #102 Iowa State +13.90 0.893
AWAY #102 Iowa State +9.94 0.813
AWAY #138 Kansas State +12.75 0.880
HOME # 12 Texas Tech +2.33 0.581
AWAY # 18 Texas -0.33 0.489
HOME # 1 Baylor -3.73 0.363
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #246 UTSA 105 66 +22.07 +16.93
AWAY # 87 TCU 82 78 +5.92 -1.92
AWAY # 44 Xavier-Ohio 77 99 +0.87 -22.87
HOME #284 Florida A&M 85 54 +24.09 +6.91
HOME #148 Oral Roberts 79 65 +15.35 -1.35
HOME #336 Houston Baptist 84 65 +29.37 -10.37
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 67 69 +0.14 -2.14
HOME # 19 West Virginia 75 71 +1.83 +2.17
AWAY # 1 Baylor 61 76 -9.88 -5.12
AWAY # 9 Kansas 59 63 -4.17 +0.17
HOME # 87 TCU 82 46 +9.88 +26.12
HOME #138 Kansas State 76 50 +14.52 +11.48
HOME # 9 Kansas -0.21 0.494
AWAY # 18 Texas -2.52 0.416
HOME # 13 Alabama +0.18 0.506
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech -3.82 0.366
HOME #102 Iowa State +11.71 0.858
HOME # 1 Baylor -5.92 0.284
AWAY # 19 West Virginia -2.13 0.414
HOME # 18 Texas +1.44 0.549
AWAY #102 Iowa State +7.75 0.761
AWAY #138 Kansas State +10.56 0.840
HOME # 42 Oklahoma State +4.67 0.674
AWAY # 42 Oklahoma State PPD +0.71 0.527
AWAY # 94 Central Florida(UCF) PPD +6.40 0.705
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk
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