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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Baylor game
- asteroid
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3 years 10 months ago #26154
by asteroid
Recall that last season, after 13 of the 18 conference games had been played
by each team, Baylor had a half game lead over Kansas in the race for the
conference crown and had already defeated Kansas in Lawrence. The Jayhawks
rolled into Waco and came out with a hard-fought 3 point victory. Will we
see a repeat of that situation this season? Kansas really needs it to stay
in the conference race.
I started off with something positive, because the various predictions are
all negative. Dunkel is the most pessimistic, making Kansas an 18.5 point
underdog. RealTime is next, with Kansas as a 16 point dog. Then we have
the DPPI, with Kansas a 12.9 point dog, and the BPI, with Kansas a 12.1
point dog. The most optimistic is Whitlock, who has Kansas winning by
3.8 points, but he STILL isn't on board for this season, so that's the
prediction for last year's teams. The most optimistic of the ones who are
on board for this season is, ironically, Sagarin's eigenvector analysis,
which favors Baylor by a mere 1.6 points.
Baylor's worst game was a 29 point win over Alcorn State, during which
the Bears played almost 11 points below expectation. The only other time
they played below expectation was against Iowa State, but they came away
with an 11 point road win. Their inconsistency is a mere 7.2 points,
dwarfed by Kansas' 13.8 points. A lot depends on which Kansas team shows
up. Against Oklahoma State, Hyde started off and played most of the game,
but Jekyll showed up late and actually took the lead, but the Stillwater
jinx prevailed in the end.
Kansas game totals are averaging 143.9 points, while Baylor game totals
are averaging 148.3 points, which doesn't sound all that different, but
Baylor has been winning by an average of almost 26 points. Their average
score was in the 90s until conference opponents started to bring that down.
Baylor has played the weakest schedule of any Big 12 team, but that's
because of virus protocol; their games against Gonzaga, Texas, and West
Virginia have all been postponed.
Speaking of which, does anybody know what the Big 12's contingency plan is?
They started conference play early, apparently with the intent of leaving
some open time in the schedule for make-up games. You figure they've got
to have them, else crowning a champion doesn't make sense if the schedules
are too unbalanced. For example, Kansas has missed a game against a
winless opponent (in conference games), while Baylor has missed two games
against contenders. That's unbalanced.
Big Monday, in every sense of the word.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats BU KU Defensive Stats BU KU
Points/Game 87.2 75.3 Opp Points/Game 61.1 68.6
Avg Score Margin +26.2 +6.8 Opp Effective FG % 45.6 47.7
Assists/Game 18.6 13.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.4 11.4
Total Rebounds/Gm 38.7 40.7 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.3 26.2
Effective FG % 58.4 49.9 Blocks/Game 3.8 4.6
Off Rebound % 36.8 33.5 Steals/Game 9.5 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.304 0.331 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.4 16.0
Turnover % 14.6 15.5
Kansas has the advantage in just two of the eight offensive stats and in
just three of the seven defensive categories.
Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, all in conference:
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
BU +15 OU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU -15 BU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
BU +18 TCU on road (+22 neutral court)
KU +7 BU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
BU +8 TTU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU -11 BU on road ( -7 neutral court)
These three average 6.33 points in favor of Baylor. If instead we use 2 points
for the home court advantage, then the margin in favor of Baylor decreases to
4.33 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes MaCio Teague (guard)
most points Jared Butler (guard)
most rebounds Jonathan Tchatchoua (forward)
most assists Davion Mitchell (guard)
most steals Jared Butler (guard)
most blocks Mark Vital (guard)
most turnovers Jared Butler (guard), Davion Mitchell (guard)
most fouls Davion Mitchell (guard)
First a cracked vertabrae, now a broken finger; Thompson is out.
10-3 12-0
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Baylor
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall -6.71 68 75 27 # 9 # 7 # 2 #116
Sagarin Predictor -7.28 68 75 25.4 # 9 # 7 # 1 #116
Sagarin Golden Mean -5.82 69 75 27 # 8 # 7 # 2 #116
Sagarin Recent Games -10.00 67 77 27 # 23 # 7 # 2 #116
Sagarin Eigenvector -1.56 71 72 44
Massey -8.00 66 77 21 # 11 # 21 # 1 #115
Pomeroy -7.09 66 73 # 15 # 7 # 2 #129
Greenfield -8.50 66 74.5 # 15 # 4 # 1 # 22
Dunkel -18.50 65 83 # 13 # 2
Vegas (via Dunkel) -8.50 66 74
Dolphin Predictive -7.45 69 76 26.1 # 20 # 8 # 1 # 26
Real Time -16.00 67 83 21.4 # 19 # 29 # 7 #235
Seven Overtimes -7.00 63 70 34 # 84 # 5 # 10 #125
DPPI -12.90 68 81 11.2 # 31 # 20 # 1 #178
ESPN BPI -12.10 13.6 # 17 # 26 # 1 # 95
Whitlock +3.76 * # 1 * # # 3 * #
Colley Matrix -3.37 # 15 # 16 # 5 #177
NCAA NET # 19 # 1
LRMC # 2 * # # 5 * #
common opponents -4.33
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -6.08 67.1 76.1 25.2
scatter 7.23 2.0 3.9 9.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 18-8
(postponed games have been moved to the end of the schedule, given that
we don't yet know when they might be made up):
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 90 102 -4.95 -7.05
NEUT #202 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +19.76 +2.24
NEUT # 58 Kentucky 65 62 +7.08 -4.08
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #151 North Dakota State 65 61 +18.03 -14.03
HOME # 12 Creighton 73 72 +2.46 -1.46
HOME #258 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +24.95 +20.05
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 58 57 -1.37 +2.37
HOME # 20 West Virginia 79 65 +4.04 +9.96
HOME # 18 Texas 59 84 +3.61 -28.61
AWAY # 87 TCU 93 64 +8.23 +20.77
HOME # 24 Oklahoma 63 59 +4.60 -0.60
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma State 70 75 +2.96 -7.96
AWAY # 1 Baylor -7.28 0.254
AWAY # 24 Oklahoma +0.74 0.522
HOME # 87 TCU +12.09 0.831
AWAY # 4 Tennessee -3.48 0.390
HOME #131 Kansas State +16.05 0.924
AWAY # 20 West Virginia +0.18 0.507
HOME # 44 Oklahoma State +6.82 0.733
AWAY #101 Iowa State +9.78 0.802
AWAY #131 Kansas State +12.19 0.861
HOME # 13 Texas Tech +2.49 0.584
AWAY # 18 Texas -0.25 0.492
HOME # 1 Baylor -3.42 0.378
HOME #101 Iowa State PPD +13.64 0.881
Here is Baylor's season (ditto for postponed games):
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT #177 Louisiana 112 82 +23.98 +6.02
NEUT #153 Washington 86 52 +21.59 +12.41
NEUT # 5 Illinois 82 69 +3.81 +9.19
HOME #162 Stephen F. Austin 83 52 +24.57 +6.43
AWAY #131 Kansas State 100 69 +17.54 +13.46
HOME #351 Ark.-Pine Bluff 99 42 +42.66 +14.34
HOME #285 Central Arkansas 93 56 +31.78 +5.22
HOME #348 Alcorn State 105 76 +39.97 -10.97
AWAY #101 Iowa State 76 65 +15.13 -4.13
HOME # 24 Oklahoma 76 61 +9.95 +5.05
AWAY # 87 TCU 67 49 +13.58 +4.42
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 68 60 +3.98 +4.02
HOME # 9 Kansas +7.28 0.746
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma State +8.31 0.876
HOME #131 Kansas State +21.40 0.998
HOME # 66 Auburn +15.38 0.951
AWAY # 18 Texas +5.10 0.711
HOME # 87 TCU +17.44 0.966
AWAY # 24 Oklahoma +6.09 0.719
HOME # 13 Texas Tech +7.84 0.827
AWAY # 20 West Virginia +5.53 0.806
HOME # 44 Oklahoma State +12.17 0.955
HOME #101 Iowa State +18.99 0.991
AWAY # 9 Kansas +3.42 0.622
HOME # 18 Texas PPD +8.96 0.835
HOME # 20 West Virginia PPD +9.39 0.923
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga PPD +0.40 0.517
HOME #335 Tarleton State PPD +37.07 1.000
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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