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latest Big 12 projection

  • asteroid
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3 years 10 months ago #26152 by asteroid
Baylor has opened up a 4 game lead in the projected standings.

                      Jan2    Jan9    Curr.
Pred                  Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins    Wins    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------  ------  ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  Baylor          14.6    15.4    16.0     5  0   KU  (Mo)   BU  by  7.3
#  9  Kansas          13.2    12.2    11.8     4  2  @BU  (Mo)              
# 18  Texas           10.4    11.7    11.8     5  1  @ISU (We)   UT  by  8.2
# 12  Texas Tech      11.1    10.1    11.1     4  3  @TCU (We)   TTU by  7.7
# 24  Oklahoma         8.9     9.6     9.9     3  3   KSU (Tu)   OU  by 13.4
# 20  West Virginia   10.7    10.7     9.7     2  3   OSU (Tu)   WVU by  4.7
# 43  Oklahoma State   6.8     7.5     8.5     3  3  @WVU (Tu)              
# 88  TCU              6.4     6.3     5.6     2  4   TTU (We)              
#101  Iowa State       3.7     3.4     3.0     0  5   UT  (We)              
#131  Kansas State     4.2     3.1     2.6     1  5  @OU  (Tu)              

Road wins are still occurring more than half the time.  Let's hope that trend
continues for the first Big Monday game of the season.

Road wins (18 out of 29)                  Home losses                          Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------  -----------------------------------  --------------------
4 Baylor         KSU ISU TCU TTU          0 Baylor                             +4 Baylor        
3 Texas Tech     OU  ISU UT               1 Kansas         UT                  +1 Kansas        
2 Kansas         TTU TCU                  1 Oklahoma       TTU                 +1 Texas         
2 Oklahoma State TTU KSU                  1 Texas          TT                   0 Oklahoma      
2 TCU            OSU KSU                  1 West Virginia  UT                   0 Oklahoma State
2 Texas          KU  WVU                  2 Oklahoma State TCU WVU              0 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas State   ISU                      3 Iowa State     KSU BU  TTU          0 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       TCU                      3 Kansas State   BU  TCU OSU         -1 TCU           
1 West Virginia  OSU                      3 TCU            OU  KU  BU          -2 Kansas State  
0 Iowa State                              3 Texas Tech     KU  OSU BU          -3 Iowa State    

Kansas is still the most inconsistent team in the Big 12.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +5.45    West Virginia     5.46
Texas           +3.42    Oklahoma State    7.16
Oklahoma        +1.12    Baylor            7.20
Oklahoma State  +0.95    Kansas State      7.92
Texas Tech      +0.95    Iowa State        8.77
West Virginia    0.00    Texas Tech        9.28
Kansas          -0.73    Texas            10.80
TCU             -3.23    TCU              11.41
Kansas State    -3.32    Oklahoma         13.01
Iowa State      -4.74    Kansas           13.79

Oklahoma's lopsided win over TCU has put those two teams at the top and bottom
of the trend statistic.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma        +0.89 +/- 1.27    Oklahoma State  +0.50 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  +0.87 +/- 0.56    Texas           +0.28 +/- 0.36
Iowa State      +0.61 +/- 1.19    Iowa State      +0.15 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    +0.34 +/- 0.60    Baylor          +0.06 +/- 0.18
Kansas          +0.29 +/- 1.21    Kansas State    -0.08 +/- 0.22
West Virginia   -0.28 +/- 0.41    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.30
Texas Tech      -0.46 +/- 0.56    West Virginia   -0.18 +/- 0.23
Texas           -0.51 +/- 0.82    Texas Tech      -0.22 +/- 0.19
Baylor          -0.90 +/- 0.56    Oklahoma        -0.27 +/- 0.32
TCU             -1.32 +/- 0.69    Kansas          -0.49 +/- 0.46

Tougher competition has brought Baylor's scoring average under 90.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          87.08   Texas Tech      61.00   Baylor          148.33   Baylor          +25.83
Oklahoma        77.27   Baylor          61.25   Oklahoma State  147.92   Texas Tech      +12.67
Oklahoma State  77.08   Texas           66.08   Oklahoma        146.18   Texas            +9.23
Texas           75.31   Oklahoma        68.91   West Virginia   144.62   Oklahoma         +8.36
West Virginia   74.92   Kansas          69.08   Kansas          143.92   Oklahoma State   +6.25
Kansas          74.83   West Virginia   69.69   Iowa State      143.22   Kansas           +5.75
Texas Tech      73.67   TCU             69.93   Texas           141.38   West Virginia    +5.23
Iowa State      67.78   Oklahoma State  70.83   TCU             136.79   TCU              -3.07
TCU             66.86   Kansas State    72.38   Kansas State    136.62   Iowa State       -7.67
Kansas State    64.23   Iowa State      75.44   Texas Tech      134.67   Kansas State     -8.15

Baylor now has the weakest schedule in the conference, though that's not their
fault; virus protocol postponed games against Gonzaga, Texas, and West Virginia.
Texas Tech jumped over 150 spots after playing Texas and Baylor.
Kansas' strength of schedule will climb after playing Baylor in Waco
and cement the position at the top of the conference.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          82.21 (  7)
West Virginia   81.12 ( 17)
Iowa State      80.99 ( 19)
Texas           80.05 ( 30)
Oklahoma State  79.18 ( 35)
Oklahoma        78.70 ( 47)
TCU             77.62 ( 59)
Kansas State    77.50 ( 60)
Texas Tech      74.73 (102)
Baylor          74.43 (116)
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues

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