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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma State game
- asteroid
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3 years 10 months ago #26131
by asteroid
Some recent games in Stillwater:
1994: Kansas 59, Oklahoma State 63
1995: Kansas 69, Oklahoma State 79
2004: Kansas 60, Oklahoma State 80
2008: Kansas 60, Oklahoma State 61
2010: Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 85
2014: Kansas 65, Oklahoma State 72
2015: Kansas 62, Oklahoma State 67
2016: Kansas 67, Oklahoma State 86
2018: Kansas 64, Oklahoma State 82
I think I read somewhere that Stillwater is the toughest conference location
for Kansas. What I find interesting about the above is that the Jayhawks
pretty consistently score in the 60s in losing efforts. That 2010 game is a
bit of an outlier in this regard. The winning efforts are obviously better,
including a 90 point outpuring in 2017 after three consecutive years of
futility.
Our most optimistic prediction for this year is Colley's 7 points (I'm
ignoring Whitlock's 13 points, because he's still stuck on last season).
Second-most optimistic is the BPI at 4.4 points. The most reliable
prognosticators all have it in the 3 to 4 point range, and 74 to 70 is
the most common predicted score. RealTime is the pessimist, predicting
Kansas to lose by 10. Seven Overtimes is the only other prognosticator
with Kansas on the wrong side of the scoreboard, losing by 5 points.
Recall that RealTime tends to use a large home court advantage. That's
even less appropriate this season; Sagarin's home court advantage is
still under 2 points. And the Big 12 has had the road team win two-thirds
of the time in 24 conference games played so far this season, suggesting
a home court DISadvantage.
The average is 2.82 points in favor of Kansas, though with a scatter of
4.6 points. I've kept Whitlock in this case to offset RealTime, which is
why the scatter is so high.
Kansas game totals have been averaging 143.82 points, while Oklahoma State's
average total is 148.18, which average out to 146 points. That would make
the score Kansas 75, Oklahoma State 71 if you adopt a 4 point margin.
Kansas has played a number of close games this season. Then there have
been the blowouts, and both ways; easier on the cardiovascular system
and/or fingernails.
You'll need ESPN+ to watch this one.
Meanwhile, Baylor avoids playing another upper division opponent, at
least for the moment, because there are virus issues with the Mountaineers.
Baylor has already avoided Texas and Gonzaga so far this season. They've
jumped out to 3 conference road wins, but all against the bottom three
teams in the projected standings.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OSU KU Defensive Stats OSU KU
Points/Game 77.3 75.8 Opp Points/Game 70.9 68.0
Avg Score Margin +6.4 +7.8 Opp Effective FG % 46.7 47.2
Assists/Game 13.5 13.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.5 11.6
Total Rebounds/Gm 40.5 41.2 Def Rebounds/Gm 26.4 26.6
Effective FG % 51.1 49.9 Blocks/Game 3.5 4.5
Off Rebound % 30.9 33.9 Steals/Game 7.1 6.6
FTA/FGA 0.365 0.328 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.8 16.0
Turnover % 16.5 15.2
Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight offensive stats and in five
of the seven defensive categories.
Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all in conference:
KU +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
OSU -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU +34 OSU on road (+38 neutral court)
KU -25 UT at home (-29 neutral court)
OSU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU -34 OSU on road (-30 neutral court)
KU +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OSU +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU -8 OSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
OSU -3 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU +13 OSU on road (+17 neutral court)
These four average 1.25 points in favor of Kansas, though with a large scatter.
If instead we use 2 points for the home court advantage, then the margin in favor
of Kansas increases to 3.25 points, which is remarkably consistent with the
predictions by Sagarin, Massey, Pomeroy, and Greenfield.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points Cade Cunningham (guard)
most rebounds Isaac Likekele (guard)
most assists Cade Cunningham (guard)
most steals Bryce Williams (guard)
most blocks Cade Cunningham (guard)
most turnovers Cade Cunningham (guard)
most fouls Avery Anderson III (guard)
Guard Donovan Williams sat out the last game for unspecified reasons. Gaurd
Ferron Flavors Jr. didn't play in the last game due to a finger injury. Guard
Chris Harris Jr. is out for an unkown amoung of time. Forward Montreal Pena Jr.
has not been playing for personal reasons. Of course, as we saw with Oklahoma,
virus protocol can change the available roster on very short notice.
For Kansas, Garrett is back, and Bryce Thompson is day-to-day.
10-2 8-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma St.
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +3.85 74 70 64 # 8 # 8 # 42 # 47
Sagarin Predictor +3.70 74 70 62.9 # 8 # 8 # 44 # 47
Sagarin Golden Mean +4.12 74 70 64 # 4 # 8 # 43 # 47
Sagarin Recent Games +2.54 73 71 64 # 13 # 8 # 32 # 47
Sagarin Eigenvector +3.58 74 70 63
Massey +3.00 73 70 61 # 5 # 27 # 44 # 38
Pomeroy +4.04 72 68 # 12 # 8 # 35 # 60
Greenfield +3.50 74.5 71 # 12 # 3 # 46 # 43
Dunkel +1.00 71.5 70.5 # 9 # 37
Vegas (via Dunkel) +3.50 74 71
Dolphin Predictive +3.79 74 70 62.7 # 16 # 4 # 44 # 41
Real Time -10.00 70 80 30.3 # 8 # 27 # 47 #102
Seven Overtimes -5.00 65 70 42 # 39 # 5 # 92 # 40
DPPI +1.50 75 73 55.3 # 19 # 23 # 48 # 71
ESPN BPI +4.40 65.7 # 15 # 26 # 63 # 59
Whitlock +12.97 * # 1 * # # 52 * #
Colley Matrix +7.07 # 7 # 13 # 34 # 56
NCAA NET # 13 # 38
LRMC # 2 * # # 65 * #
common opponents +3.25
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +2.82 72.7 71.0 57.7
scatter 4.61 2.6 2.8 11.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 90 102 -4.24 -7.76
NEUT #204 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +20.45 +1.55
NEUT # 50 Kentucky 65 62 +6.12 -3.12
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #148 North Dakota State 65 61 +18.42 -14.42
HOME # 9 Creighton 73 72 +2.37 -1.37
HOME #254 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +24.76 +20.24
AWAY # 14 Texas Tech 58 57 -0.12 +1.12
HOME # 17 West Virginia 79 65 +4.71 +9.29
HOME # 15 Texas 59 84 +4.18 -29.18
AWAY # 78 TCU 93 64 +7.89 +21.11
HOME # 29 Oklahoma 63 59 +6.10 -2.10
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma State +3.71 0.629
HOME #104 Iowa State +14.29 0.893
AWAY # 1 Baylor -6.29 0.294
AWAY # 29 Oklahoma +2.26 0.570
HOME # 78 TCU +11.73 0.830
AWAY # 4 Tennessee -3.57 0.390
HOME #128 Kansas State +16.54 0.917
AWAY # 17 West Virginia +0.87 0.532
HOME # 44 Oklahoma State +7.55 0.749
AWAY #104 Iowa State +10.45 0.818
AWAY #128 Kansas State +12.70 0.857
HOME # 14 Texas Tech +3.72 0.622
AWAY # 15 Texas +0.34 0.510
HOME # 1 Baylor -2.45 0.416
Here is Oklahoma State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
AWAY #174 UT Arlington 75 68 +10.72 -3.72
HOME #211 Texas Southern 85 65 +17.20 +2.80
AWAY # 57 Marquette 70 62 -0.57 +8.57
HOME #289 Oakland-Mich. 84 71 +21.66 -8.66
HOME #127 Oral Roberts 83 78 +10.89 -5.89
AWAY # 63 Wichita State 67 64 +0.78 +2.22
HOME # 78 TCU 76 77 +6.10 -7.10
AWAY # 15 Texas 74 77 -5.29 +2.29
AWAY # 14 Texas Tech 82 77 -5.75 +10.75
HOME # 17 West Virginia 84 87 -0.92 -2.08
AWAY #128 Kansas State 70 54 +7.07 +8.93
HOME # 8 Kansas -3.71 0.371
HOME # 29 Oklahoma +0.47 0.520
AWAY # 17 West Virginia -4.76 0.218
HOME # 1 Baylor -8.08 0.134
AWAY #104 Iowa State +4.82 0.749
HOME # 12 Arkansas -2.26 0.402
AWAY # 78 TCU +2.26 0.606
HOME # 15 Texas -1.45 0.442
AWAY # 8 Kansas -7.55 0.251
HOME #128 Kansas State +10.91 0.919
HOME #104 Iowa State +8.66 0.886
AWAY # 1 Baylor -11.92 0.051
HOME # 14 Texas Tech -1.91 0.404
AWAY # 29 Oklahoma -3.37 0.356
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, ElectricHawk, jaythawk1
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