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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
- asteroid
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3 years 10 months ago #26119
by asteroid
Which Jayhawk team will show up for today's game? The one that played 20 points
above expectation against Omaha (Peyton Manning: "OMAHA!"), the one that played
21 points above expectation against TCU, the one that played 14 points below
expectation against North Dakota State, or the one that played 29 points below
expectation against Texas? Talk about Jekyll and Hyde! This is the least
consistent Jayhawk team in recent memory and the least consistent team in the
Big 12 by almost 3 points.
Ironically, the various predictions for today's game are perhaps the most
consistent I've seen this season. They all predict a Kansas victory, even
Sagarin eigenvector, which is the second-most optimistic with a 13.7 point
margin. The most optimistic is the common opponent comparison, which includes
three conference opponents, the least favorable of which is still a 14 point
margin, but the average is 19.3 points. The most pessimistic is Dunkel, who
has Kansas by just 4 points. The average is 7.6 points, with a scatter of 3.8
points.
Kansas is averaging a point total of 146.0 per game, while Oklahoma is
averaging a bit more than that at 150.9 points. Those average to 148.4 points,
suggesting a final score of around 78 to 71, though the prognosticators have
it at slightly less than that on average.
Seven Overtimes finally elevated Gonzaga to the #1 position. A 2-0 Siena team
is #2, while a 1-0 Hawaii team is #4. See why I say Seven Overtimes isn't ready
for Prime Time?
With the large inconsistency for the Jayhawks, however, don't be surprised at
something totally different. The Sooners are the third-least consistent team
in the Big 12, but right at the national average. Some of that inconsistency
might be attributable to injuries, but Garrett has been out for just one game.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 79.4 77.1 Opp Points/Game 71.4 68.9
Avg Score Margin +8.0 +8.2 Opp Effective FG % 50.0 47.5
Assists/Game 15.3 13.9 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.6 12.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.7 41.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.4 26.4
Effective FG % 51.8 49.5 Blocks/Game 3.6 4.3
Off Rebound % 29.5 35.0 Steals/Game 7.1 6.8
FTA/FGA 0.308 0.323 Personal Fouls/Gm 13.6 16.2
Turnover % 13.8 14.6
Kansas has the advantage in four of the eight offensive stats and in five
of the seven defensive categories.
Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, all in conference:
KU +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
OU +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +29 OU at home (+25 neutral court)
KU +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OU -2 TTU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +15 OU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
OU +4 WVU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +14 OU at home (+10 neutral court)
These three average 19.33 points in favor of Kansas. Surprisingly large margin.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Austin Reeves (guard)
most points Austin Reeves (guard)
most rebounds Austin Reeves (guard)
most assists Austin Reeves (guard)
most steals Elijah Harkless (guard)
most blocks Kur Kuath (forward)
most turnovers Austin Reeves (guard)
most fouls Victor Iwuakor (forward)
Austin Reeves would appear to be the key.
Don't expect Bryce Thompson to play. The big question is, will Marcus Garrett play?
9-2 6-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +6.82 77 70 73 # 8 # 13 # 36 # 73
Sagarin Predictor +6.47 77 70 68.4 # 8 # 13 # 35 # 73
Sagarin Golden Mean +7.14 77 70 73 # 5 # 13 # 33 # 73
Sagarin Recent Games +7.45 77 70 73 # 13 # 13 # 43 # 73
Sagarin Eigenvector +13.68 80 67 87
Massey +7.00 75 68 75 # 6 # 32 # 35 # 59
Pomeroy +4.88 74 69 # 12 # 8 # 44 # 81
Greenfield +6.50 75.5 69 # 12 # 4 # 37 # 31
Dunkel +4.00 73.5 69.5 # 9 # 40
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.00 75.5 68.5
Dolphin Predictive +7.12 78 71 72.5 # 14 # 5 # 43 # 38
Real Time +9.00 81 72 67.9 # 12 # 39 # 71 #107
Seven Overtimes +4.00 70 66 71 # 72 # 8 #102 #119
DPPI +5.76 78 72 69.0 # 25 # 41 # 49 #106
ESPN BPI +4.60 66.8 # 14 # 30 # 29 # 33
Whitlock +10.69 * # 1 * # # 36 * #
Colley Matrix +4.56 # 14 # 36 # 48 #114
NCAA NET # 14 # 50
LRMC # 2 * # # 40 * #
common opponents +19.33
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +7.56 76.3 69.4 72.4
scatter 3.80 2.8 1.7 5.5
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Gonzaga 90 102 -4.35 -7.65
NEUT #200 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +20.06 +1.94
NEUT # 56 Kentucky 65 62 +7.20 -4.20
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #148 North Dakota State 65 61 +18.28 -14.28
HOME # 11 Creighton 73 72 +2.49 -1.49
HOME #255 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +24.80 +20.20
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech 58 57 +0.51 +0.49
HOME # 15 West Virginia 79 65 +4.35 +9.65
HOME # 14 Texas 59 84 +4.25 -29.25
AWAY # 80 TCU 93 64 +7.63 +21.37
HOME # 34 Oklahoma +6.39 0.684
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State +4.10 0.637
HOME # 94 Iowa State +13.21 0.863
AWAY # 2 Baylor -6.13 0.307
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma +2.51 0.575
HOME # 80 TCU +11.51 0.815
AWAY # 5 Tennessee -3.58 0.394
HOME #126 Kansas State +16.19 0.903
AWAY # 15 West Virginia +0.47 0.516
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +7.98 0.753
AWAY # 94 Iowa State +9.33 0.780
AWAY #126 Kansas State +12.31 0.839
HOME # 16 Texas Tech +4.39 0.638
AWAY # 14 Texas +0.37 0.511
HOME # 2 Baylor -2.25 0.426
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
AWAY # 87 Central Florida(UCF) +4.31 0.652
HOME #275 UTSA 105 66 +21.72 +17.28
AWAY # 80 TCU 82 78 +3.18 +0.82
AWAY # 45 Xavier-Ohio 77 99 -0.85 -21.15
HOME #262 Florida A&M 85 54 +20.87 +10.13
HOME #127 Oral Roberts 79 65 +12.02 +1.98
HOME #338 Houston Baptist 84 65 +28.09 -9.09
HOME # 16 Texas Tech 67 69 -0.06 -1.94
HOME # 15 West Virginia 75 71 -0.10 +4.10
AWAY # 2 Baylor 61 76 -10.58 -4.42
AWAY # 8 Kansas -6.39 0.316
HOME # 80 TCU +7.06 0.751
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State -0.35 0.484
HOME #126 Kansas State +11.74 0.881
HOME # 8 Kansas -2.51 0.425
AWAY # 14 Texas -4.08 0.364
HOME # 20 Alabama +0.46 0.517
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech -3.94 0.347
HOME # 94 Iowa State +8.76 0.822
HOME # 2 Baylor -6.70 0.242
AWAY # 15 West Virginia -3.98 0.323
HOME # 14 Texas -0.20 0.493
AWAY # 94 Iowa State +4.88 0.697
AWAY #126 Kansas State +7.86 0.785
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +3.53 0.653
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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