predictions for TCU game

From one extreme to the other:  a late tip.  That makes it a comfortable 5 p.m.
in Hawaii.

As the saying goes, live by the three, die by the three.  What we did to West
Virginia was done to us by Texas.  I suppose if it was going to happen at home,
this would be the season during which it would happen.  Playing 28 points below
expectation is unusual, but not unprecedented.  Remember, the national average
for standard deviation is up around 11 points, which means that around one in
every twenty games will feature teams playing 22 points above and below
expectation.  The actual standard deviation for Kansas right now is 14 points,
or somewhat more than the national average, so one in every twenty games would
be either 28 points above or below expectation.  It happens.  It hurts when it's
of the below expectation variety, and feels pretty good when it's of the above
expectation variety (21 points above expectation against OMAHA, Mr. Manning).
So now that we've already experienced the extremes, we should play much more
consistently down the stretch, right?  If only statistics worked that way.
It's random.  Drawing a royal flush in a poker game doesn't eliminate the
chances of it happening again in the same game.  The odds are against it
happening, but the odds of it happening in the first place were also against
it.

This TCU game does have a bit of a deja vu feeling to it, as most of the
prognostications are nearly the same as they were for the Texas game.  Not that
TCU is as good as Texas, but going from being at home to being on the road is
making up for that difference.  Pomeroy is the optimist at almost 7 points,
with Greenfield close behind at 6.5 points and Vegas at 6 points.  Greenfield's
margin actually increased from 5.5 to 6.5 points since last night.  The
pessimist is RealTime, who has the Jayhawks losing by 16 (or 15, depending on
which web page you look at).  Seven Overtimes has Kansas by 1, but what does
Bashuk know?  He has a 2-0 Siena team as his #1 team right now.  Baylor is
down at #18.  That's why I consider prognosticators like RealTime and Seven
Overtimes as not ready for Prime Time.  Several seasons of tracking their
predictions for Big 12 games has shown they're not as good as Sagarin, Massey,
Pomeroy, Greenfield, and Dolphin.  The new kid on the block, ESPN's BPI, has
improved conssiderably in a very short time.  I'd trust the BPI's predictions
more than Dunkel, for example, who has been at it for a century.  Heck,
RealTime has TCU winning with a score of 86, but they average 71 points and
have topped 86 only once, against North Dakota State.  That was against
Pomeroy's #152 defense.  Kansas has Pomeroy's #12 defense.  And defense is
more consistent than offense (of which the Texas game made us painfully
aware, considering how few treys dropped).

Whitlock still isn't on board for this season, so beware of the asterisks.
However, the NCAA started releasing the NET rankings yesterday.  Kansas is
currently #26.  And the NCAA is starting to use NET for the women; Kansas
is #64.  Plus they announced that March Madness will be played in its
entirety in the Indianapolis area, trying to make it a bubble.  The
announcement said "all 67 games", so it appears that they're going to
stick with the 68 team format.

Anyway, I digress.  

Sagarin's Predictor, Golden Mean, and Overall methods all have Kansas in
the 5 to 6 point range, while the Recent Games method is only a half point,
thanks to the Texas loss.  His Eigenvector analysis continues to treat the
Jayhawks poorly, making them an almost 2 point underdog.  The second-most
pessimistic is the common opponent, against which Kansas played 13 points
below expectation, but TCU was also a little below expectation.  The average
is 2.5 points with a 6 point scatter, so it could be anybody's game.  I've
included Whitlock in the average this time, mainly to offset RealTime's
negative outlier.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TCU      KU      Defensive Stats     TCU      KU
Points/Game         71.7    75.3     Opp Points/Game     65.9    69.4
Avg Score Margin    +5.8    +5.9     Opp Effective FG %  47.1    47.3
Assists/Game        15.2    13.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.5    12.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.3    41.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.3    26.4
Effective FG %      53.8    48.1     Blocks/Game          4.3     4.3
Off Rebound %       27.9    33.6     Steals/Game          6.3     7.0
FTA/FGA            0.334   0.323     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.8    16.7
Turnover %          17.0    15.1

Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight offensive stats and in four
of the seven defensive categories, though one of those is effectively a wash.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely North Dakota State:

KU   +4 NDSU at home (  0 neutral court)
TCU  +7 NDSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -7 TCU  on road ( -3 neutral court)

Using 4 points for the home court advantage is definitely excessive this season.
If we go with Sagarin's 2 points, it would still be TCU by 5.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       RJ Nembhard (guard)
most points        RJ Nembhard (guard)
most rebounds      Kevin Samuel (forward)
most assists       RJ Nembhard (guard)
most steals        Kevin Samuel (forward)
most blocks        Kevin Samuel (forward)
most turnovers     RJ Nembhard (guard)
most fouls         GPJ Fuller (guard)

Kind of looks like another two-man show.  Put Garrett on Nembhard, if he's recovered
enough to play, and that ought to shut down half of that duo.  But therein lies the big
question mark.  Will Garrett be able to play?  His defense is superb, but the offense
flows better with Harris at the point.  Interesting trade-off.

                                                           8-2           9-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.74   71   66       70       # 11   # 12    # 63   #121
Sagarin Predictor       +5.86   72   66       69.5     # 11   # 12    # 70   #121 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +6.19   72   65       70       #  9   # 12    # 62   #121 
Sagarin Recent Games    +0.51   69   68       70       # 27   # 12    # 47   #121 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -1.72   68   69       43   
Massey                  +5.00   71   66       69       #  9   # 38    # 60   #107
Pomeroy                 +6.66   71   64                # 12   #  9    # 63   #146
Greenfield              +6.50   72.5 66                # 14   #  5    # 79   # 86
Dunkel                  +2.50   71   68                #  9           # 40                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.00   72   66                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +5.15   73   67       67.2     # 27   #  5    # 78   #102
Real Time              -16.00   70   86       21.7     # 24   # 66    # 37   #163 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   66   65       61       #108   #  5    # 28   #123
DPPI                    +2.90   73   70       60.3     # 44   # 38    # 84   #122
ESPN BPI                +3.20                 62.2     # 22   # 29    # 71   #137
Whitlock               +13.34 *                        #  1 * #       # 77 * #   
Colley Matrix           -1.62                          # 14   # 36    # 25   #131
NCAA NET                                               # 26           # 65  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       #110 * #   
common opponents        -7.00                                   
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.46   70.8 68.0
scatter                  6.35    2.0  5.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 18-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -5.30    -6.70
NEUT   #191 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +18.22    +3.78
NEUT   # 51 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.45    -2.45
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #151 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.39   -13.39
HOME   # 13 Creighton                   73  72    +2.64    -1.64
HOME   #255 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +24.01   +20.99
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  58  57    -0.71    +1.71
HOME   # 15 West Virginia               79  65    +3.20   +10.80
HOME   # 14 Texas                       59  84    +2.99   -27.99
AWAY   # 70 TCU                                   +5.85             0.695
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                              +5.31             0.703
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State                        +2.78             0.602
HOME   # 95 Iowa State                           +12.60             0.813
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -7.18             0.234
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              +1.31             0.552
HOME   # 70 TCU                                   +9.85             0.805
AWAY   #  4 Tennessee                             -4.59             0.358
HOME   #130 Kansas State                         +15.40             0.821
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         -0.80             0.468
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State                        +6.78             0.737
AWAY   # 95 Iowa State                            +8.60             0.728
AWAY   #130 Kansas State                         +11.40             0.752
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                            +3.29             0.630
AWAY   # 14 Texas                                 -1.01             0.467
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -3.18             0.374

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #340 Houston Baptist             69  45   +24.03    -0.03
NEUT   # 74 Tulsa                       70  65    +0.40    +4.60
NEUT   # 92 Liberty                     56  52    +2.18    +1.82
HOME   #324 Northwestern State          74  68   +21.28   -15.28
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                    78  82    -2.54    -1.46
HOME   # 53 Providence                  70  79    -0.33    -8.67
HOME   #102 Texas A&M                   73  55    +5.17   +12.83
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State              77  76    -5.07    +6.07
HOME   #151 North Dakota State          89  82    +9.54    -2.54
HOME   #253 Prairie View A&M            66  61   +15.80   -10.80
AWAY   #130 Kansas State                67  60    +3.55    +3.45
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                -5.85             0.305
HOME   #  2 Baylor                               -11.03             0.028
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              -6.54             0.132
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         -8.65             0.070
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                            -4.56             0.216
HOME   # 14 Texas                                 -4.86             0.294
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                                -9.85             0.195
AWAY   # 37 Missouri                              -6.51             0.251
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State                        -1.07             0.440
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                               -15.03             0.005
HOME   # 95 Iowa State                            +4.75             0.658
AWAY   # 14 Texas                                 -8.86             0.161
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                            -8.56             0.070
HOME   #130 Kansas State                          +7.55             0.696
HOME   # 15 West Virginia                         -4.65             0.214
AWAY   # 95 Iowa State                            +0.75             0.526