Jayhawks trending strongly to the positive

I have attached two charts below. Both indicate a trending. One is more of a direct measure of trend based on improvement through time. The other is more of a measure of mental toughness but has a trending component to it. In both areas, KU is strongly trending positive. This is great news. It had to happen. Our performance through the non-conference was lackluster to say the least. We have played progressively better in the last two games. We have ground to make up in terms of computer ranking from the lackluster play in the 1st 7 games. But it appears we are on a very positive trend. I like it.

Brief explanation at these charts.

The top chart is the difference between what the computer projects and the actual outcome in terms of wins. We were projected to win 0.98 games in the first two conference games. We actually won them both, thus gaining 1.02 games over the projection.

The bottom graph is simply the difference in the current projection for the 18 game conference season minus the initial projection for wins at the beginning of conference play. This is a true measure of improvement in performance.

We are currently projected to beat Texas by 1.8 points with a 62.2% probability of winning. If we win that game we will gain another 0.38 games. Plus, we were initially projected to win 9.4 games at the beginning of conference play. We are currently projected to win 12.4 games. If we defeat Texas that will increase to something around 12.9 or 13 games. Texas is in third place currently in the projection at 12.3 games. If we defeat Texas we will really start to separate ourselves and solidify our 2nd place position. Then our target will be solidly set on Baylor.