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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
- asteroid
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3 years 11 months ago #26039
by asteroid
How can you beat a highly regarded Texas Tech team and FALL in the
rankings? When you're Seven Overtimes, of course. Seven Overtimes
had Kansas ranked #104 before the Texas Tech game, and despite winning
on the road, Kansas fell to #134. Meanwhile, Kansas State, who lost
to Division II Fort Hays State, is ranked #93. Go figure. Still not
ready for prime time, Bashuk. At least he's picking Kansas to win by
2 points over his #6 team. Didn't realize the home court was worth
so much, especially this season.
Massey is the most optimistic, picking Kansas to win by 6, with
Dunkel right behind at 5. I'm ignoring Whitlock's 6.9 point margin,
because he's still not on board for this season, so that's the
prediction for last year's teams. Sagarin generally has Kansas
winning by 3 to 4 points, but his Recent Games metric has the
contest a toss-up, and once again, his eigenvector analysis is not
favorable for Kansas, and in fact is the most pessimistic, making
the Jayhawks a 13 point underdog.
Gonzaga is the lone common opponent, and the Mountaineers arguably
played the Zags tougher, though the Jayhawks went toe to toe with
them for much of the game before running out of gas late. The common
opponent comparison suggests a 3 point loss for Kansas, and that's
assuming a generous 4 point home court advantage, which seems to be
an overestimate for this season, given the sparse attendance being
allowed.
The average of the various prognostications puts the margin at just
1 point for Kansas, with the average of the predicted scores being
71 to 70. Not good for the spectator's cardiovascular system, or
their fingernails, if you're a biter, but the Jayhawks have done well
in tight games this season.
West Virginia has been remarkably consistent, playing all eight games
within 9 points of expectation. Kansas is close to the national average
in consistency, having played 20 points above expectation against Omaha
(OMAHA! --Peyton Manning) and 15 points below expectation against North
Dakota State. The others have been within 8 points of expectation.
Kansas has been playing games with 145 total points on average, and
West Virginia is right there at 144 points. Then again, we're talking
about Pomeroy's #9 and #6 defensive teams hooking up today. When #1
and #6 played last week, the result was a game in the 50s and just 115
total points. Take the under.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats WVU KU Defensive Stats WVU KU
Points/Game 76.0 77.1 Opp Points/Game 68.1 68.0
Avg Score Margin +7.9 +9.1 Opp Effective FG % 46.9 45.6
Assists/Game 14.1 13.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 13.0 11.4
Total Rebounds/Gm 40.9 42.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 25.4 28.1
Effective FG % 46.3 49.0 Blocks/Game 2.9 4.1
Off Rebound % 35.7 33.1 Steals/Game 6.4 7.3
FTA/FGA 0.386 0.344 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.0 16.7
Turnover % 13.7 15.4
Kansas has the advantage in half of the eight offensive stats and in five
of the seven defensive categories.
Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Gonzaga:
KU -12 Gon neutral (-12 neutral)
WVU -5 Gon neutral ( -5 neutral)
KU -3 WVU at home ( -7 neutral)
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Miles McBride (guard)
most points Miles McBride (guard)
most rebounds Derek Culver (forward)
most assists Miles McBride (guard)
most steals Miles McBride (guard)
most blocks Derek Culver (forward)
most turnovers Taz Sherman (guard)
most fouls Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
7-1 7-1
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +3.39 73 69 62 # 8 # 29 # 12 # 31
Sagarin Predictor +3.09 72 69 63.9 # 9 # 29 # 14 # 31
Sagarin Golden Mean +3.91 73 69 62 # 6 # 29 # 13 # 31
Sagarin Recent Games +0.01 71 71 # 14 # 29 # 6 # 31
Sagarin Eigenvector -13.36 64 78 14
Massey +6.00 72 66 71 # 4 # 55 # 14 # 21
Pomeroy -0.07 69 69 # 9 # 28 # 8 # 25
Greenfield +2.50 70.5 68 # 12 # 5 # 11 # 7
Dunkel +5.00 71 66 # 4 # 16
Vegas (via Dunkel) +2.00 70.5 68.5
Dolphin Predictive +4.32 73 69 64.4 # 12 # 8 # 20 # 14
Real Time +1.00 82 81 53.3 # 29 #148 # 3 # 30
Seven Overtimes +2.00 68 66 66 #134 # 14 # 6 # 11
DPPI # # # #
ESPN BPI +4.00 64.6 # 13 # 41 # 19 # 28
Whitlock +6.91 * # 1 * # # 15 * #
Colley Matrix -6.83 # 19 #136 # 3 # 18
NCAA NET # 2 * # 17 *
LRMC # 2 * # # 8 * #
common opponents -3.00
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +1.22 71.4 70.0
scatter 5.02 4.0 4.5
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 90 102 -4.66 -7.34
NEUT #180 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 72 +18.32 +3.68
NEUT # 61 Kentucky 65 62 +6.98 -3.98
Div2 Washburn 89 54
HOME #159 North Dakota State 65 61 +18.77 -14.77
HOME # 13 Creighton 73 72 +3.03 -2.03
HOME #253 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 95 50 +24.69 +20.31
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 58 57 -1.39 +2.39
HOME # 14 West Virginia +3.09 0.639
HOME # 24 Texas +4.79 0.667
AWAY # 66 TCU +6.14 0.733
HOME # 44 Oklahoma +6.57 0.734
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma State +4.27 0.681
HOME #108 Iowa State +14.24 0.929
AWAY # 1 Baylor -8.03 0.172
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma +2.55 0.596
HOME # 66 TCU +10.16 0.849
AWAY # 3 Tennessee -5.85 0.297
HOME #117 Kansas State +15.03 0.931
AWAY # 14 West Virginia -0.93 0.457
HOME # 52 Oklahoma State +8.29 0.820
AWAY #108 Iowa State +10.22 0.854
AWAY #117 Kansas State +11.01 0.862
HOME # 12 Texas Tech +2.63 0.600
AWAY # 24 Texas +0.77 0.528
HOME # 1 Baylor -4.01 0.319
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
AWAY #105 South Dakota State 79 71 +8.89 -0.89
NEUT # 48 VCU(Va. Commonwealth) 78 66 +4.34 +7.66
NEUT # 94 Western Kentucky 70 64 +9.94 -3.94
NEUT # 2 Gonzaga 82 87 -5.74 +0.74
AWAY #104 Georgetown 80 71 +8.54 +0.46
HOME #234 Robert Morris canceled
HOME # 96 North Texas 62 50 +11.96 +0.04
HOME # 58 Richmond 87 71 +7.65 +8.35
HOME #108 Iowa State 70 65 +13.16 -8.16
AWAY # 9 Kansas -3.09 0.361
HOME #102 Buffalo +12.52 0.925
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma +1.47 0.572
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma State +3.19 0.700
HOME # 24 Texas +3.71 0.662
AWAY # 1 Baylor -9.11 0.040
HOME # 66 TCU +9.08 0.896
HOME # 52 Oklahoma State +7.21 0.882
AWAY #117 Kansas State +9.93 0.906
HOME # 12 Texas Tech +1.55 0.577
HOME # 20 Florida +3.48 0.656
AWAY #108 Iowa State +9.14 0.905
HOME # 9 Kansas +0.93 0.543
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech -2.47 0.378
HOME # 44 Oklahoma +5.49 0.751
HOME # 1 Baylor -5.09 0.163
AWAY # 24 Texas -0.31 0.486
AWAY # 66 TCU +5.06 0.759
HOME #117 Kansas State +13.95 0.968
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, hoshi, newtonhawk
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