predictions for Texas Tech game

I've been up all night, so I'm going to keep this short.  Kentucky is now
1-4, so the Kansas strength of schedule has been sagging (it would have
sagged even more had the Tarleton game happened), and that marginal win
over the Wildcats means the power rating for Kansas has been going down
along with Kentucky's.  As such, Kansas is now the underdog in today's
contest in Lubbock.  Real Time is the most pessimistic, picking the Red
Raiders by 14.  Colley is the most optimistic, making Kansas the favorite
by a fractional point.  At least it rounds up.  Yes, Whitlock's "prediction"
is even more optimistic, but considering how he isn't on board for this
season yet, it's last year's teams his ratings are comparing.  Kansas is,
on average, a 2.4 point underdog.  Texas Tech lost to the only decent
opponent they've faced, however, and they've played below expectation by
around 9 points in their last two games.  Meanwhile, Kansas had its most
above-expectation game against Omaha last Friday.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TT      KU       Defensive Stats     TT      KU
Points/Game         75.3    80.3     Opp Points/Game     51.6    69.8
Avg Score Margin   +23.7   +10.5     Opp Effective FG %  40.3    47.0
Assists/Game        15.3    13.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.6    12.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.9    43.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.3    27.3
Effective FG %      50.3    49.2     Blocks/Game          4.4     4.3
Off Rebound %       35.8    35.2     Steals/Game          8.6     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.503   0.347     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    15.8
Turnover %          14.9    14.4

Texas Tech has the advantage in five of eight offensive categories and in
four of seven defensive categories.  However, opponents points per game is
one of those stats that depends on the strength of your opponents, and
Texas Tech has played mostly cupcakes.  They lost their toughest game,
and their game against the second-toughest opponent to date was canceled.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kyler Edwards (guard)
most points        Matthew McClung (guard)
most rebounds      Marcus Santos-Silva (forward)
most assists       Kyler Edwards (guard)
most steals        Nimari Burnett (guard)
most blocks        Marcus Santos-Silva (forward)
most turnovers     Nimari Burnett (guard)
most fouls         Marcus Santos-Silva (forward)

Guard Kevin McCullar is out with an ankle injury, and forward Joel Ntambwe has
left the program.

                                                           6-1           6-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -1.70   65   67       44       # 14   # 98    # 15   #280
Sagarin Predictor       -2.95   64   67       39.4     # 16   # 98    # 10   #280 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -0.26   66   66       44       #  6   # 98    # 16   #280 
Sagarin Recent Games    -1.70   65   67       44       # 22   # 98    # 24   #280 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -3.60   64   68       37   
Massey                  -3.00   66   69       41       #  7   # 97    # 20   #238
Pomeroy                 -0.29   65   65                #  9   # 67    #  8   #284
Greenfield              -3.50   65   68.5              # 14   # 18    #  6   # 80
Dunkel                  -6.00   58.5 64.5              #  4           #  7                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.00   65.5 68.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -3.47   65.5 69       38.1     # 17   # 21    #  5   # 57
Real Time              -14.00   76   90       23.1     #  7   # 70    # 23   #120 
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   67   68       53       #104   # 25    # 42   #279
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI                -4.80                 32.1     # 14   #102    #  4   #237
Whitlock                +9.58                          #  1 * #       # 27 * #   
Colley Matrix           +0.90                          # 32   #167    # 35   #256
NCAA NET                                               #  2 *         # 22 *
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 17 * #   
common opponents          .                                       
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -2.42   65.6 69.0
scatter                  4.65    3.7  6.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 17-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Gonzaga                     90 102    -4.75    -7.25
NEUT   #206 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +18.29    +3.71
NEUT   # 54 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.09    -2.09
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #162 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.64   -13.64
HOME   # 28 Creighton                   73  72    +3.39    -2.39
HOME   #280 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +24.85   +20.15
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -2.95             0.394
HOME   # 13 West Virginia                         +1.45             0.551
HOME   # 25 Texas                                 +3.07             0.600
AWAY   # 70 TCU                                   +5.61             0.686
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma                              +4.76             0.668
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma State                        +4.83             0.645
HOME   #103 Iowa State                           +12.43             0.853
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                                -6.97             0.236
AWAY   # 40 Oklahoma                              +1.00             0.536
HOME   # 70 TCU                                   +9.37             0.791
AWAY   #  7 Tennessee                             -4.25             0.353
HOME   #124 Kansas State                         +14.35             0.918
AWAY   # 13 West Virginia                         -2.31             0.419
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma State                        +8.59             0.746
AWAY   #103 Iowa State                            +8.67             0.767
AWAY   #124 Kansas State                         +10.59             0.847
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                            +0.81             0.529
AWAY   # 25 Texas                                 -0.69             0.477
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -3.21             0.370

Here is Texas Tech's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #334 Northwestern State         101  58   +31.04   +11.96
HOME   #255 Sam Houston State           84  52   +24.19    +7.81
NEUT   #  5 Houston                     53  64    -1.77    -9.23
HOME   # 78 St. John's                           +11.43             0.848
HOME   #274 Troy                        80  46   +25.36    +8.64
HOME   #309 Grambling State             81  40   +28.59   +12.41
HOME   #127 Abilene Christian           51  44   +15.47    -8.47
HOME   #314 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     77  57   +29.16    -9.16
HOME   # 16 Kansas                                +2.95             0.606