Pinpointing KU's weaknesses

In three words, KU's problems can be summed up thusly "in the paint". There are several areas where KU is subpar as compared to the gauge of a championship contender but the single issue for KU thus far is play in the paint. That includes both offense and defense.

Consider this; KU has had 25 shots blacked at the rim this season. That is a ridiculously high pace. And Marcus Garrett has 11 of those 25. Heck, David McCormack has had 4 shots blocked. Our offense at the rim has been abysmal.

We have shot 47.2% from 2 point range and good percentage of those have been at the rim. For perspective, KU's 17 year average under Self for 2FG% is 53.2%. At 42 2FGA's per game that equates to 5.0 points per game we are missing purely from our poor 2FGA. And who has THE WORST 2 point FG% on the team? It is our AA candidate Marcus Garrett at 38.5% followed by our No. 1 scoring option Ochai at 38.9% followed by the guy who should have the best 2FG%, David McCormack at 40.4%. This is not good. We are led by Tristan Enaruna at 63.6%. Even our freshman Bryce Thompson is at 54.5% and he has taken some ill-advised shots. We simply have to get better at the rim and on 2 point % in general. If we do not, we will lose a bunch of games.

What about our opponents in the paint? We are blocking only 6.8% of opponents FGA. Compare that to the 17 year average of 8.7%. More directly, our opponents are 48.2% from 2 point range. For perspective, that compares to a 17 year average of 42.6%. And most of these shots are at the rim. In other words, our rim defense is something approaching dismally pathetic. If you assume 37 2FGA per game from our opponents, the difference between 42.6% and and 48.2% shooting percentage equates to 4.1 points per game.

So between our poor paint offense and our poor paint defense, we are losing 9.1 points per game. 9.1 points per game is not a small number. For instance, last season that difference in scoring would have made us 17-14 instead of 28-3. That is serious business. I think (hope) we will radically improve and quickly. But make no bones about it, the level of paint play we have had is indicative of a very mediocre Power 6 team. In fact, I have KU 56th in my DPPI currently.

Our ball-handling has been decent but not great. Our 3-point defense has been adequate. Our 3 point shooting has been adequate or slightly better. Our rebounding has been outstanding. The only other are where we have been poor relatively is in offensive flow as measured by assist%. We have assisted on 41.8% of FG's. That is pathetic and is the reason we have all observed a very herky-jerky non-flowing offense. The 17 year average assist% is 57.5%. So you can see that 41.8% is jsut mind-bogglingly horrible. The worst season under Self was 2019, the worst season we have had in 25 years when we assisted on 48.3% of FG's. Our offensive flow has been pathetic. And while that is not solely on the back of McCormack, when you do not have a big man in the middle who can get position, receive an entry pass and score at a 60-65% rate, it is a problem.

So in summary, simply stated, KU is doing a lot right this season, especially rebounding, but we thus far stink in the paint on both sides of the ball. If we do not fix this we will be in for a very long conference season with 7 or 8 losses. Incidentally, Lightfoot, never known as a particularly effective offensive player, is shooting 55% in the paint and has had zero shots blocked whereas the combination of Garrett, Agbaji and McCormack have had 15% of their 2FGA blocked. Ouch!!

Self must be reading your comments, because he said the same thing in an article today. McCormack's struggles only tell part of the picture and the other is how many times we're getting blocked at the rim. This is partially a shot selection issue, but Self also pointed out that we're missing easy points in the break. We've had a high percentage of those opportunities come up empty when a 2-on-1 or 3-on-1 break should be fairly automatic. Self said the guys need to practice these situations and seemed to be alluding to the fact that most top level players have this stuff figured out before they leave high school.

But you and Self are certainly correct. Of the many areas that aren't up to championship winning level at this point in the season, a very big glaring weakness. As you rightly point out, points we're missing out on in the paint will come back to bite us.

I think Mac is just marginally better than Mitch scoring inside.

I think Mitch is substantially better than Mac blocking shots, being active on defense (Mac is "active" but only in a frenzied way, not in a productive way), getting rebounds, and asserting some "hard ass" thru hard fouls that at least make the opponent think twice about going to the hoop.

I'd like to see four guards and a rotation of Mitch and Mac for less minutes than are currently being given.

And I should add that I think our guards are playing like they are used to having a big back them up if they get beat, which isn't happening. The smalls need to start guarding like they're the last line of defense. No help is coming at the rim this year.

AZ, you are correct about help defense in the paint as well. I did not allude to that but that is a part and parcel of our paint problems. It is not the biggest problem we have in paint defense but it is certainly a factor. We have allowed way too many attacks in the paint where help was slow in coming or failed to come at all. Offensively, Enaruna has probably been as good as anyone in the paint, but defensively, his baseline defense has typically been bad. He either ball watches or doesn't have a sense of where the offense player is, especially weak side defense.

Enaruna is sort of frustrating, because I am warming to what he contributes offensively but his defense has been very cowboy.