Worried about Creighton

The weird season continues to be weird. 4pm Central time tipoff today makes for an oddball mid-week, day game. I guess that's the price you pay to have ESPN cover it.

While the game is at AFH, the home court advantage is largely erased. I realize that they'll have 2500 people in the building today (questionable decision IMHO based on what the current numbers are showing) but I expect it will still be pretty quiet.

Creighton is #8 and we're #5. ESPN gives it a 55%/45% odds in our favor which is pretty much a toss up. Creighton has some juice on their side being ranked in the top 10 and being nationally recognized as an up-and-coming program, and lately we've looked like a blueblood who might be due for a down year. Without a lot of data points and trends to look at this early in the season, I can only really react to what I've seen from KU. Let's review:

KU got blown up by Gonzaga. They are clearly further along than KU at this point in the season.

KU bounced back and looked ok against St. Joes but St. Joes promptly got Covid and hasn't played since.

KU looked "just ok" against Washburn and looked "just ok" against NDSU.

McCormack is still a work in progress. McCormack still hasn't flipped the switch, Garrett seems to be underperforming vs. last year and aside from Agbaji and Wilson we don't really seem to know who's going to be consistently showing up on any given night.

If Creighton (who beat NDSU by 11 but led by as much as 20 and didn't trail in the last 30 minutes of the game) comes in an plays "slightly better" than NDSU (quite probable), we could be in for a long night.

Bottom line, KU definitely has a deeper team filled with better athletes. Self can certainly out coach anybody on any given night. But if we don't "gel" in time for tipoff this afternoon (I don't think we've "gelled" yet) I think we could lose this one. And with so little time between games, I'm not sure how much opportunity we've had to come together and start playing like a seasoned team.

Your point about the games coming so close together that the guys do not get enough practice time to improve is a big concern to me. With this many new folks trying to gel requires lots of practice. Hopefully we can play well today.

I also have some significant questions as to just how good we really are. Conventional wisdom (algorythmically speaking) would say that our game against Gonzaga puts us more like 30th or 40th rather than 5th in the ranking. St, Joseph's was a solid win but the Kentucky win is looking less and less impressive as Kentucky sinks into the mire of mediocrity. The NDSU win was only a win because we played a lowly ranked team. That performance would have lost against just about any top 100 team. So from a comparison ranking standpoint, we do not have a particularly glossy resume'. But we do have some talent. You are correct that Wilson and Agbaji have been the anchors for what has been an otherwise unsteady ship. McCormack has shown nothing that he deserves to start much less get much playing time. Tyon was sinking through the first three games and looking like he might be a bust. But he shined against NDSU so let's hope that is the light coming on. Braun has been really good at times and so-so much of the time. He has not been dreadful like some of the other inconsistent players but we need him to be aggressive all the time. Marcus, our preseason AA has been anything but. I am desperately hoping that is is due to a debilitation that is on the mend. But other than the Gonzaga game, Marcus has been thoroughly mediocre and even occasionally worse than mediocre. That is concerning. Bryce Thompson started out looking promising but has slid into very freshman-like play the last 3 games. And Tristan is the ultimate enigma. He can do some things that make you think he could be an emerging star but he all too often plays the cowboy and never seems to be in lock step with the team. Dajuan has obviously been a shining bright spot, but 3 games does not a season make. Let's hope he can keep it up. Wilson has been a HUGE positive surprise. And Ochai has shown the type of sophomore to junior growth you hope for. Mostly we need McCormack and Garrett to play something resembling the expectations from preseason hype. Without that, I don't see how we are better than a top 20 team.

I feel ya' NotO. I've wondered how much HCBS is playing to win versus playing to win later in the season and coach the players now. D-Mac is the crux of the matter IMHO. We'll see . . . .


RCJHFL

I'm resigned to Self's system (a world class system of course) that makes us look pedestrian for ten games while he drills defense and "system" into the player's heads. It makes for some hand ringing early in the season, but brings together a winner by season's end.

I just don't think the Zaga loss was that bad. We lost by 12, and put 90 points up on an otherwise horrific defensive performance. We found a way to overcome KY's length, and ground out a couple wins in a barn with no fans and no students on campus at all.

I'd say we're no worse than a top 10 team early, and have the talent to be very good later on.