predictions for Washburn game

Yeah, yeah.  I had predicted the winner of the Kentucky game to have more
than 80 points.  Egg on face.  But after thinking about it more, Kansas
scored 60 points in the last 30 minutes of the game, which is at a pace
to score 80 for the entire game.  It was just those first 10 minutes that
were awful for the Jayhawks.  The treys weren't falling, and the interior
shots were being swatted away.  Kansas shot less than 30 percent for the
game and less than 24 percent from behind the arc.  Kentucky's length was
a serious problem for the Jayhawks.

But a win is a win, despite how ugly the game may have been.

Not much to say about today's game.  Washburn is a Division II school, so
most of the usual prognosticators are ignoring this game.  I was only
expecting Massey to have a prediction, as he has historically included
Divisions II and III.  More surprisingly, ESPN's BPI has a prediction as
well, though not a very good one, in my opinion.  The last 13 times that
Washburn and Kansas have played games, usually as preseason exhibitions,
Kansas has scored an average of 88.5 points while giving up an average of
63.4 points.  That suggests a 25 point win for the Jayhawks, not too far
off of Massey's 30 point prediction, but way less than the BPI's 43 point
prediction.  Actually, even 25 points might be on the high side.  Washburn
is ranked #3 in Division II (by Massey), although only #303 in his combined
rankings.

I think a lot depends on just how healthy the Jayhawks are.  Garrett has
been sick, and McCormack isn't 100 percent either.  But Harris has shown
that he can run the point, and Wilson has shown that he can play the five.
The Jayhawks should be okay.

                                                           2-1           2-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Washburn
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall           .                            #  7   # 24    #      #   
Sagarin Predictor         .                            #  4   # 24    #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean       .                            #  5   # 24    #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games      .                            # 11   # 24    #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector       .                        
Massey                 +30.00   89   59       99       #  6   # 29    #303   #378
Pomeroy                   .                            #  5   # 17    #      #   
Greenfield                .                            #  7   #  5    #      #   
Dunkel                    .                            #              #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)        .                                                      
Dolphin Predictive        .                            #  6   #  3    #      #   
Real Time                 .                            #  2   # 20    #      #    
Seven Overtimes           .                            #241   # 10    #      #   
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI               +42.80                 99.7     #  8   # 41    #      #   
Whitlock                  .                            #  1 * #       #      #   
Colley Matrix             .                            #  1 * #       #      #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents             
last 13 games                   88.5 63.4
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +36.40   88.7 61.2
scatter                  9.10   

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-8,
assuming a win over Division II Washburn:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -2.20    -9.80
NEUT   #193 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +18.42    +3.58
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    65  62    +2.65    +0.35
Div2        Washburn                          
HOME   #182 North Dakota State                   +19.96             0.985
HOME   # 22 Creighton                             +5.11             0.710
HOME   #223 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +22.20             0.992
HOME   #348 Tarleton State                       +34.17             1.000
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            +0.36             0.514
HOME   # 17 West Virginia                         +4.14             0.672
HOME   # 14 Texas                                 +3.86             0.647
AWAY   # 64 TCU                                   +5.79             0.728
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                              +5.99             0.751
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma State                        +3.47             0.621
HOME   # 68 Iowa State                           +10.62             0.858
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -3.76             0.300
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                              +1.99             0.589
HOME   # 64 TCU                                   +9.79             0.847
AWAY   # 10 Tennessee                             -0.95             0.459
HOME   #115 Kansas State                         +14.88             0.968
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                         +0.14             0.506
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma State                        +7.47             0.747
AWAY   # 68 Iowa State                            +6.62             0.748
AWAY   #115 Kansas State                         +10.88             0.913
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                            +4.36             0.660
AWAY   # 14 Texas                                 -0.14             0.495
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +0.24             0.513

Here is Washburn's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #    Fort Hays State             80  78
HOME   #    Central Oklahoma            81  71
AWAY   #    Kansas