predictions for Kentucky game

Talk about timing!  St. Joseph's is taking a 14-day break from basketball
due to some positive tests among tier 1 personnel.  So the big question
on everybody's minds is whether any of the Kansas personnel came into
close contact with those St. Joseph's personnel.  We're about two hours
from tip-off, and I've seen nothing to indicate that Kansas has had any
positive tests that might force the Kentucky game to be canceled, so keep
your fingers crossed.

Kentucky has already had one game canceled, Friday's contest with
Detroit Mercy.  Then on Sunday they lost at home to Richmond.  So both
teams enter today's game with 1-1 records, though the Kansas loss is
arguably a better loss than Kentucky's loss.  Richmond does have a
decent team, ranked #36 in Sagarin Overall, but they're not as good as
Gonzaga, and Kentucky lost on its home court, not on a neutral court.
Then again, with arenas mostly empty, just how much is the home court
worth this season?  Sagarin has the home advantage as just 2.00 points,
though that is based on a relatively small number of games so far.
Historically it has been in the 3 to 4 point range.

Sagarin has Kansas ranked higher than Kentucky in all four methods,
so it comes as no surprise that Kansas is favored by anywhere from
2.6 to 4.5 points by those four methods.  What is odd is that in
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis, Kentucky comes out on top by a
fraction of a point.  Go figure.  Fortunately, that's the only negative
prediction for Kansas.  The rest average around 5 points in favor of
the Jayhawks.

Kentucky's two games have averaged 133 total points, while Kansas'
two games have averaged 179 total points.  Will offense or defense
prevail today?  I'm guessing offense, until such time as McCormack
gets out of his funk.  So I'll predict a higher winning score than
the highest of the bunch in the table below (80).

Dolphin is now on board for this season.  Seems a little early for him.
Not date-wise, but number of games played-wise.  He usually waits until
the teams are more connected.  But his prediction is in line with
Sagarin's.

Real Time came on board with this season, but it still doesn't have its
act together.  If you look at the GAMER predictions where it shows the
entire Kansas schedule, the Jayhawks are a 13 point favorite.  But if
you click on the Scouting link for the Kentucky game, the Jayhawks are
only a 9 point favorite.  And if you use Real Time's Game Predictor tool
to match any two arbitrary teams, Kansas is just a 1 point favorite over
Kentucky on a neutral court.  Go figure.

Talk about wacky ratings this early in a season.  Seven Overtimes has
Kansas State, with a 1-2 record against the #122 schedule, ranked
at #86, while Kansas, with a 1-1 record against the #22 schedule,
is #101.  Go figure.

And Real Time has Kentucky, who played home games against Morehead State and
Richmond, with the #7 schedule, compared to Kansas at #19, who has neutral
court games against Gonzaga and Saint Joseph's.  Go figure.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats    Kent.    KU       Defensive Stats    Kent.    KU
Points/Game         72.5    92.0     Opp Points/Game     60.5    87.0
Avg Score Margin   +12.0    +5.0     Opp Effective FG %  43.6    55.1
Assists/Game        11.5    13.5     Off Rebounds/Gm     14.5     8.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   45.5    37.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     29.0    27.0
Effective FG %      48.3    58.3     Blocks/Game          4.5     3.5
Off Rebound %       44.6    25.8     Steals/Game          6.0     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.392   0.413     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.5    16.5
Turnover %          20.3    17.1

Kentucky has the advantage in three of the eight offensive categories, as
well as in five of the seven defensive categories, with fouls being a wash.
However, in looking at the numbers, the more possessions there are in a
game, the more opportunities there will be for rebounds, for example, so
a direct comparison of absolute numbers can be misleading.  Pomeroy's
offensive and defensive "efficiencies" are better when there is a mismatch
in the number of possessions.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Brandon Boston Jr. (guard)
most points        Brandon Boston Jr. (guard)
most rebounds      Isaiah Jackson (forward)
most assists       Devin Askew (guard)
most steals        Terrance Clarke (guard)
most blocks        Isaiah Jackson (forward)
most turnovers     Devin Askew (guard)
most fouls         Olivier Sarr (guard), Lance Ware (forward)

Now this is weird.  According to Greenfield, Olivier Sarr has been ruled
ineligible to compete in the 2020-2021 season.  Yet he has stats for this
season and is averaging 29.5 minutes per game.  Foward Jacob Toppin has
also been ruled ineligible according to Greenfield.  And forward
Keion Brooks Jr. is supposedly out with a calf injury for three more weeks.
Then again, Greenfield also said that Gonzaga's Strawther was out with an
injury, yet he played, so I'd take these injury and eligibility reports
from Greenfield with a grain of salt.

                                                           1-1           1-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Kentucky
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.51   78   74       63       #  8   # 41    # 27   #136
Sagarin Predictor       +2.60   77   75       59.4     #  4   # 41    # 17   #136 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +2.82   77   74       63       #  5   # 41    # 14   #136 
Sagarin Recent Games    +4.45   78   74       63       # 17   # 41    # 57   #136 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -0.36   76   76       49  
Massey                  +4.00   73   69       69       #  8   # 18    # 55   #177
Pomeroy                 +2.90   74   71                #  6   # 29    # 20   #151
Greenfield              +4.00   73.5 69.5              #  5   #  8    # 22   # 65
Dunkel                  +8.00   80   72                #  1           #111                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   74   70                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +2.51   76   74       58.0     #  4   #  5    # 17   # 80
Real Time GAMER        +13.00   77   64                #  6   # 19    #  9   #  7 
Real Time Scouting      +9.00   80   71       75.4     #  6   # 19    #  9   #  7 
Real Time Predictor     +1.00   72   71       54.1     #  6   # 19    #  9   #  7 
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   73   68       76       #101   # 22    #283 * # 65
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI                +5.50                 68.1     #  8   # 51    # 59   #111
Whitlock                +8.76                          #  1 * #       # 23 * #   
Colley Matrix           +9.27                          #  1 * #       # 14 * #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.03   75.9 71.5
scatter                  3.36    2.6  3.2  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-8,
assuming a win over Division II Washburn:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -1.82   -10.18
NEUT   #194 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +18.35    +3.65
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                              +2.61             0.594
Div2        Washburn                          
HOME   #178 North Dakota State                   +19.67             0.963
HOME   # 20 Creighton                             +4.93             0.673
HOME   #212 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +21.69             0.976
HOME   #349 Tarleton State                       +36.40             1.000
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            +0.26             0.509
HOME   # 14 West Virginia                         +4.27             0.651
HOME   # 23 Texas                                 +5.63             0.696
AWAY   # 65 TCU                                   +5.74             0.699
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma                              +5.95             0.706
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State                        +4.30             0.652
HOME   # 64 Iowa State                            +9.69             0.811
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -2.99             0.393
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma                              +1.95             0.570
HOME   # 65 TCU                                   +9.74             0.812
AWAY   # 11 Tennessee                             -0.98             0.465
HOME   #114 Kansas State                         +14.91             0.912
AWAY   # 14 West Virginia                         +0.27             0.510
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State                        +8.30             0.775
AWAY   # 64 Iowa State                            +5.69             0.698
AWAY   #114 Kansas State                         +10.91             0.839
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                            +4.26             0.651
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 +1.63             0.559
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +1.01             0.537

Here is Kentucky's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #290 Morehead State              81  45   +23.17   +12.83
HOME   #282 Detroit Mercy              canceled
HOME   # 42 Richmond                    64  76    +5.49   -17.49
NEUT   #  4 Kansas                                -2.61             0.406