Where we stand after 2 games and a look at Kentucky

The big Blue Blood matchup between Kansas and Kentucky is nigh. Both teams sit at 1-1. Kansas lost to what is most likely the best team in the country by 12 points on a neutral court. Kentucky lost at home to a decent but unranked Richmond team by 12 points. Advantage Kansas. Although, the cardboard fans in Rupp Arena were still smiling after the game so I guess they don't mind losing so much. Kentucky missed all 10 of their 3 point shots in that game and shot only 43% from 2 point range. That is a formula for losing because Kentucky destroyed Richmond on the boards 54-31. I mean, you really have to suck pretty badly in the rest of your game when you grab 64% of all rebounds and 47% of the offensive rebounds. Plus, Kentucky turned the ball over 21 times. They faired much better against lowly Morehead St. in their first game. So perhaps they just had an off night. It is very early and the ratings are questionable at best, but currently Kentucky is 24th in the computer composite index. So KU should have a path to victory here, but this is a blue blood matchup and all bets are off. There is always that little extra motivation to beat Kentucky and draw closer in the all time victories where KU trails Kentucky by 19, 2293-2274. Kentucky is led by their frosh phenom Brandon Boston, JR. He is leading the team with 17.5 points per game. He is about to be introduced to a senior named Marcus Garrett.

So where does KU stand after two games? Well, trending up are Jalen Wilson, Christian Braun and Dajuan Harris. Checking it at stable are Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, Bryce Thompson, Tristan Enaruna and Mitch Lightfoot. Trending down are David McCormack, Tyon Grant-Foster. It is early and these trends may be anomalies. But I call 'em as I see 'em. McCormack has played only 15 minutes per game through the first 2 games. We will need him in most of our games because as good as Jalen Wilson has played, he is simply not built to bang with the big boys for 40 minutes every game. We really pretty desperately need David to wake up and emerge from the huge funk he is in (I'm hoping it is just a funk and not a lack of ability). Oliver Sarr is a high profile big who transferred into Kentucky and is on several national watch lists. We will need Dave to put a big body on him with some effectiveness.

Self has talked about the 5 guard lineup. That is fun talk but not very realistic for more than a handful of minutes per game. We cannot be effective defensively against talented bigs with a 5 guard lineup. I will not believe that until I see it. In fact, one of the big downfalls of a 4 guard lineup is sacrificing offensive rebounds. THE WORST THREE offensive rebounding teams under Self have been the last three teams. The last three seasons we have averaged 31.1% of the offensive rebounds as compared to 35.9% in the first 14 seasons under Self. That equates to slightly over 1 point per game that we are sacrificing with the 4 guard lineup. Of course, we more than make up for that in other areas but it is an issue. A 5 guard lineup would be potentially disastrous on the offensive and defensive boards. We have actually been a better defensive rebounding team the last three seasons.

Speaking of offensive rebounds, Jalen Wilson has made his presence felt in many areas through 2 games, but none more than on the offensive boards. He has 6 of KU's 16 offensive boards. And we are grabbing only 25.8% of offensive boards through 2 games. That is pathetic. KU's worst ever offensive rebounding team was 2016 when we grabbed 31.0%. I suspect that is a HUGE focus in game planning and practice for the Jayhawks this week.

Overall KU's offense has been adequate. We have a PPP of 1.115 which is right about average for a KU team. In the Self era, KU has averaged 69.6 possessions per game. Through 2 games this season we are averaging 82.5 possessions. That is just a phrenetically crazy pace. I cannot imagine that we will maintain that sort of pace. Our defensive PPP is a pathetic 1.048, but that is mostly due to the otherworldly offensive show that Gonzaga put on. We were much better against St. Joseph's. I am very much looking forward to KU's defensive performance against Kentucky.

It is my subjective assessment that KU's offense and defense was somewhat unstructured until Dajuan Harris took to the floor. Not necessarily bad, but unstructured and lacking consistent flow. When Dajuan came into the game, it quickly began to look like Bill Self basketball with some sense of structure, And that was with 5 guards on the floor. I know the conventional wisdom is that Harris is slated for backing up Marcus for a few minutes per game, but based on the first two games, the combination of his on-ball defense and his leadership on offense, I would not bet against Harris getting more and more minutes. I love Marcus to death and the first two games may be a poor data set from which to make a conclusion, but Marcus seems at this point to be a better 2-guard and 2nd ball-handler than the primary point guard. And that applies to his defense as well as his offense. His effectiveness at running the team was not terrible, but it sure looked to me to be noticeably improved when Dajuan came onto the floor. So I am predicting more Dajuan than we might have previously surmised.

So my predictions for the season still hold. here are my things to watch for this season.

1. The Big 3 will be Christian, Marcus and Ochai. They will be our steady Eddies night in and night out.
2. Jalen will round out to be the 5th starter and Self will use him more in the post. He could very well lead the team in offensive rebounds.
3. Christian will be the 2nd best overall rebounder on the team. The dude has a nose for the ball.
4. Harris will average north of 10 minutes per game and very possibly 15.
5. Bryce Thompson will be the 1st guy off the bench and average close to 20 minutes per game.
6. This team will finish the season with an offensive PPP of 1.13 PPP which is well above average for a Self team.
7. Although we started through 2 games with a 19.5% LoB, we will finish the season close to 18% which would be one of the better Self teams.
8. This team may finish as the fastest pace team ever under Self besting the Devonte'/Svi led team with 71.3 possessions per game.
9. This team may finish with the fewest % of points scored from the FT line of any Self team. Currently we are at 13.2% as compared to last season (the lowest under Self) at 15.1% and as compared to the average of 20.1% under Self.
10. Braun will shoot 50% from 3 and get national recognition by the end of the season.

Okay, it's fun to make predictions. Who knows what will happen. Well, there is one thing I know. Kansas is playing Kentucky tomorrow I have not seen a line for the game yet. But KU is ranked 7th n the new poll and Kentucky 20th. So that should equate to a 4 point line or so.

I agree with your assessment. I think UK is a very interesting match up. I have not seen them but if history is any indication they have a lot of young talent. Usually their team is physically bigger and faster and sometimes better basketball players. Lets see how we handle that.

Good assessment Corpus. With so many new faces and so few datapoints to work with, it's hard for me to really say anything definitive yet. This cuts both ways: I don't think Braun is going to get 30 every night, and by doing so the other night, he's almost certainly been given extra attention on UK's scouting report. Likewise, McCormack's slow start might be partially due to being banged up, or might just be an early reflection of his limitations as a player.

I will say it's nice to see shots falling. While I know that Self doesn't like to rely on the 3, it sure is nice to have it as a reliable option and to keep defenses honest. I think even Self would agree that if you want to work the ball into the middle or play the high-low, you having guys who will keep the perimeter defenders on the perimeter is sure helpful.

The biggest question mark for me is our defense. I never really know how good Gonzaga is since their entire conference schedule is weak which inflates their W/L percentage, but I have trouble believing that Self was happy having them drop 100 on us, no matter what their ranking is.

Finally, I really enjoyed watching Richmond dismantle Kentucky. Their little 5-foot-nuthin guard was a steal machine and every time a Calipari-coached team loses and angel gets its wings. Nevertheless, blue blood programs typically don't like losing 2 games in a row, so they'll be highly motivated. Almost makes you wish that they'd blown out a complacent Richmond team and have over-inflated egos coming into tonight.

Looking forward to learning more about our squad tonight.

Way too many datapoints floating around for me to wrap my head around right now, but two major themes have my attention.

1. We have seven very athletic players who seem to know how to score, to run, and to defend the perimeter. Several need experience, but this is the season to try new things, as no one knows how many games will be played, or if there will ever be a year end tournament. What we might lack inside could easily be made up by Mitch/Mac playing 15-20 minutes combined, and then running teams off the floor. I for one am open to scrapping the inside out, big man first, Globetrotter perimeter weave until the big gets good position game plan. That just seems old fashioned and without a Dok, fraught with risk.

2. Garrett has to play off the ball. He lacked defensive intensity when running the point, and though he's really good at finishing at the rim, that's not what we need with all the other scorers. Give the ball to Harris, let him get everyone else good shots, and let Garrett do what he does best - guard the other team's best player, even if he's a big.