predictions for Saint Joseph's game

The good:  we scored 90 points against the #1 ranked team.
The bad:  we allowed 102 points.

The bad:  we got down by 14 points.
The good:  we came back to tie after being down by 14 points.

The good:  we shot 44 percent from behind the arc.
The bad:  not a single guard had a rebound in the first half.  Ouch.

The first ten minutes against Gonzaga were brutal.  Although we were scoring
at a 2 points per minute pace, which would amount to 80 points for a game,
considerably more than last season, we were allowing a 3 points per minute
pace for the opponent, which would amount to 120 points for a game.  Ouch.
The second ten minutes were pretty even.  Then for the third ten minutes,
Kansas was the better team, but after that we ran out of gas.  Agbaji picking
up that fourth foul could have been the nail in the coffin.

Hard to know what to make of Saint Joseph's.  They played Auburn to a tie in
regulation.  Auburn is Sagarin's #41 team as of today's rankings, whereas
Saint Joseph's is down at #191, which of course is heavily biased by last
season.  The Hawks scored more than we did, but that was by virtue of an
overtime; they had 84 in regulation.  McCormack's defensive presence paled
in comparison to Doke.  Mitch came in and wasted no time getting what looked
like a fairly clean block, though there was lower body contact.  But that was
a loaded Gonzaga team.  Saint Joseph's is not loaded, so I don't think we'll
learn a lot about the Jayhawks with today's game.  We'll learn more on Tuesday
against Kentucky.

Anyway, the predictions are still wonky at this stage of the season.
Sagarin has us the favorite in the 16 to 20 point range, until you look
at his eigenvector analysis, where we're a 2 point underdog.  But that's
the only pessimistic prediction.  Vegas has it near 20 points, but my gut
is telling me that's too high.  Auburn is not that bad, and Saint Joseph's
played them even in regulation.  I think Massey has it in the right ballpark
at 14 points.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats    St.Joe   KU       Defensive Stats    St.Joe   KU
Points/Game         91.0    90.0     Opp Points/Game     96.0   102.0
Avg Score Margin    -5.0   -12.0     Opp Effective FG %  49.3    69.4
Assists/Game        20.0    10.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.0     5.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.0    24.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.0    18.0
Effective FG %      51.4    59.7     Blocks/Game          2.0     3.0
Off Rebound %       24.4    17.2     Steals/Game          3.0     6.0
FTA/FGA            0.311   0.387     Personal Fouls/Gm   32.0    19.0
Turnover %          13.4    17.2

St. Joseph's has the advantage in six out of eight offensive categories.
Keep in mind, however, that St. Joseph's leads in points per game because
they went into overtime against Auburn.  St. Joseph's also has the advantage
in four out of seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Ryan Daly (guard)
most points        Taylor Funk (forward)
most rebounds      Ryan Daly (guard), Taylor Funk (forward)
most assists       Ryan Daly (guard), Dahmir Bishop (guard)
most steals        Ryan Daly (guard), Dahmir Bishop (guard), Jadrian Tracey (forward)
most blocks        Taylor Funk (forward)
most turnovers     Dahmir Bishop (guard)
most fouls         Jack Forrest (guard), Cameron Brown (guard), Rahmir Moore (guard),
                   Jordan Hall (guard)

                                                           0-1           0-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Gonzaga
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +18.19   82   64       92       #  7   #  2    #191   # 32
Sagarin Predictor      +18.62   82   64       95.5     #  5   #  2    #184   # 32 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +20.21   83   63       92       #  4   #  2    #194   # 32 
Sagarin Recent Games   +16.46   81   65       92       # 16   #  2    #192   # 32 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -2.10   72   74       42  
Massey                 +14.00   81   67       90       # 19   # 18    #177   # 36
Pomeroy                +19.10   88   69                #  6   #  1    #161   # 52
Greenfield             +20.50   87   66.5              # 11   #  1    #183   # 60
Dunkel                 +15.50   81   66                # 32           #122                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +19.50   87   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +26.28   87   61       98.9     #  1 * #       #255 * #   
Real Time              +23.00   85   62       85.1     #  3 * #       # 54 * #    
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   73   68       76       #299 * #  7    #283 * # 65
DPPI                      .                            #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI               +21.30                 95.2     # 10   #  9    #277   # 75
Whitlock               +28.70                          #  1 * #       #253 * #   
Colley Matrix          +38.43                          #  1 * #       #253 * #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +18.92   82.2 65.9
scatter                  9.08    5.0  3.4  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-8,
assuming a win over Division II Washburn:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Gonzaga                     90 102    -1.85   -10.15
NEUT   #184 Saint Joseph's-Pa.                   +18.61             0.955
NEUT   # 13 Kentucky                              +1.86             0.567
Div2        Washburn                          
HOME   #170 North Dakota State                   +20.81             0.971
HOME   # 14 Creighton                             +5.39             0.688
HOME   #202 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +22.56             0.980
HOME   #348 Tarleton State                       +38.00             1.000
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            -0.19             0.493
HOME   # 19 West Virginia                         +5.89             0.704
HOME   # 23 Texas                                 +6.57             0.725
AWAY   # 64 TCU                                   +5.35             0.687
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma                              +7.55             0.754
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +3.64             0.630
HOME   # 49 Iowa State                            +9.62             0.809
AWAY   #  4 Baylor                                -4.23             0.350
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma                              +1.55             0.556
HOME   # 64 TCU                                  +11.35             0.849
AWAY   # 12 Tennessee                             -1.39             0.450
HOME   # 88 Kansas State                         +14.08             0.900
AWAY   # 19 West Virginia                         -0.11             0.496
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +9.64             0.810
AWAY   # 49 Iowa State                            +3.62             0.629
AWAY   # 88 Kansas State                          +8.08             0.769
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                            +5.81             0.701
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 +0.57             0.521
HOME   #  4 Baylor                                +1.77             0.564

Here is Saint Joseph's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 46 Auburn                      91  96   -12.20    +7.20
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                               -18.61             0.045