predictions for Gonzaga game

The game that wasn't.

We'll never know for sure, but a Gonzaga versus Kansas matchup for
the National Championship back in April was one of the more likely
outcomes of March Madness.  So perhaps it is fitting that those two
teams are meeting for their first game of this season.  Of course,
Doke and Dot are gone, so it won't be the same.  No DeSousa either,
though for different reasons.

It's an early tip (all together now:  I HATE EARLY TIPS), but with
less than two hours to tipoff, I've not seen any news about the game
being canceled, so it looks like it's really going to happen.  Once
in that bubble, Friday's game looks more likely as well.

Many of the usual prognosticators are not yet on board for this
season, presumably due to the lack of data from which any prediction
can be made, but they still have rankings from last season up, so I've
copied those in the summary below and flagged them with an asterisk.
I've blanked out all the strength of schedule rankings because they
mean nothing for teams that haven't played any games yet this season.

Lots of oddities to be noted.  Sagarin has starting ratings up for
this season, along with predictions for Wedensday's games, but as of
90 minutes before tipoff, he hasn't updated his ratings or replaced
the game predictions with Thursday's games.  Bummer.  Maybe they'll
show up before I post.  Massey is on board, and between yesterday
and today, his prediction actually became more favorable for Kansas
by 1 point.  Unsure what new data triggered that change, though one
can surmise it had something to do with Wednesday's games, but because
neither Kansas nor Gonzaga has played any of the teams that played on
Wednesday, the only way those games could affect the prediction for
today's game is if Massey includes a bias from last season.  As expected,
Pomeroy is on board, but he's a pessimist for Kansas.  Greenfield is
also on board, and between yesterday and today, his prediction became
more pessimistic for Kansas by a couple of points.  Interesting that
Massey and Greenfield went in opposite directions with Wednesday's new
data.  Dunkel has a completely redesigned web site, but it remains to
be seen if he posts his predictions any earlier in the day than last
season.  Dunkel favors Kansas, while claiming that Vegas favors Gonzaga.
Dolphin's and Real Time's predictions are based on last season's ratings.
Curiously, Seven Overtimes had a game prediction up yesterday, but as of
today, all those games have predicted scores of 60-60.  And Sagarin just
updated his web page.  Yay!  ESPN's BPI is odd in that it makes Kansas
a 0.2 point favorite, while having Gonzaga ranked higher than Kansas.
Given that it's a neutral site game, go figure.  Neither Whitlock nor
Colley are on board for this season, so both are based on ratings from
last season.

The average of the predictions has it as a toss-up game.  Can you say
overtime?  (Georgia Tech and Georgia State played a four-overtime affair
last night, extending into this morning.)

The return of college basketball!  Will help to dull the pain of
spending Thanksgiving with just the people of my household.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Gonz    KU       Defensive Stats     Gonz    KU
Points/Game         87.4    74.0     Opp Points/Game     67.8    60.6
Avg Score Margin   +19.6   +13.3     Opp Effective FG %  47.6    43.7
Assists/Game        16.7    13.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.1     9.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.1    38.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     27.3    26.6
Effective FG %      57.5    53.7     Blocks/Game          3.8     4.7
Off Rebound %       32.3    31.5     Steals/Game          7.4     7.5
FTA/FGA            0.388   0.358     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.7    14.6
Turnover %          13.2    16.2

Of course, these are the stats from last season, which may not be very
representative for this season.  But Gonzaga has the advantage in all
eight offensive stats, while Kansas has the advantage in five of the
seven defensive stats.

Interesting that Greenfield had those stats up yesterday, but as of
today, they've all been blanked out for this season.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, obviously, given that it's the first game
of the season.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       nobody has played yet
most points        nobody has played yet
most rebounds      nobody has played yet
most assists       nobody has played yet
most steals        nobody has played yet
most blocks        nobody has played yet
most turnovers     nobody has played yet
most fouls         nobody has played yet

Guard Julian Strawther is out with an unspecified injury.

                                                           0-0           0-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Gonzaga
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -0.95   69.5 70.5     46.3     #  4   #       #  1   #   
Sagarin Predictor       -1.03   69.5 70.5     46       #  3   #       #  1   #    
Sagarin Golden Mean     -0.90   69.5 70.5     46       # 10   #       #  5   #    
Sagarin Recent Games    -1.02   69.5 70.5     46       #  4   #       #  1   #    
Sagarin Eigenvector      0.00   70   70       50  
Massey                  +3.00   74   71       60       #  1   #       # 16   #   
Pomeroy                 -2.82   71.5 74                #  5   #       #  1   #   
Greenfield              -4.00   74.5 78.5              #  6   #       #  1   #   
Dunkel                  +1.00   78   77                #              #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.50   73   77                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +1.29   76   74       54.4     #  1 * #       #  2 * #   
Real Time               +7.00   71   64       63.8     #  3 * #       # 54 * #    
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   72   73       39       #  1 * #       #  6 * #   
DPPI                      .                            #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI                +0.20                 50.8     #  9   #       #  5   #   
Whitlock                +3.02                          #  1 * #       #  2 * #   
Colley Matrix           +6.48                          #  1 * #       #  5 * #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +0.42   72.2 72.3
scatter                  3.16    2.8  3.8  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 20-7,
assuming a win over Division II Washburn:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -1.03             0.463
NEUT   #199 Saint Joseph's-Pa.                   +20.80             0.971
NEUT   # 13 Kentucky                              +3.31             0.618
Div2        Washburn                          
HOME   #169 North Dakota State                   +19.50             0.962
HOME   # 16 Creighton                             +4.17             0.648
HOME   #202 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +21.32             0.974
HOME   #348 Tarleton State                       +36.77             1.000
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                            +3.95             0.640
HOME   # 17 West Virginia                         +4.35             0.654
HOME   # 23 Texas                                 +5.41             0.689
AWAY   # 63 TCU                                   +9.24             0.800
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma                              +6.32             0.717
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +7.82             0.761
HOME   # 49 Iowa State                            +8.40             0.777
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                -0.16             0.494
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma                              +5.62             0.695
HOME   # 63 TCU                                   +9.94             0.817
AWAY   # 11 Tennessee                             +2.69             0.597
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                         +12.40             0.870
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                         +3.65             0.630
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +8.52             0.781
AWAY   # 49 Iowa State                            +7.70             0.758
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                         +11.70             0.856
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                            +4.65             0.664
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 +4.71             0.666
HOME   #  5 Baylor                                +0.54             0.520

Here is Gonzaga's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   Kansas                                     +1.03             0.537