predictions for Texas Tech game

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

To share or not to share.
That is the question.
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of...

Enough of Shakespeare.  Barring overtime, we'll know by around the end of
halftime whether we need to win in Lubbock to avoid sharing the Big 12
crown or not.  Considering how nicked up this team is, one might think in
terms of wanting to rest Dotson (ankle), Azubuike (ankle), and Garrett
(foot).  Of course, with this group of players, they'll want to win this
game regardless of what West Virginia and Baylor do.  The fact that Udoka
had a career night suggests that his ankle wasn't bothering him all that
much, and the fact that Dotson re-entered the game suggests that his ankle
isn't bothering him that much either.  I know less about Garrett's foot
problem.

Texas Tech is the Big 12's second-most inconsistent team.  Will we see the
team that played 37 points above expectation at home against TCU or the
one that played 16 points below expectation at home against Texas?  Or the
one that played almost 28 points above expecation on the road against Iowa
State?  Or the one that played almost 14 points below expectation on the
road against Oklahoma?  Three of those four outliers occurred in their last
four games.  The Red Raiders are truly a baffling team, which makes this
game that much harder to predict.

Sagarin Predictor has Kansas by 3.9 points, and Texas Tech has played above
expectation by at least that amount 11 times this season, while Kansas has
played below expectation by at least that amount 8 times this season, so we
have 19 instances out of 59 total games, corresponding to a 32 percent
probability of Kansas losing today's game.  Colley is the most optimistic,
having Kansas by 15 points, but he hasn't had Tech very high all season.
Sagarin Recent Games is second-most optimistic at 12.2 points.  The most
pessimistic prediction is based on the common opponent comparison, in which
that 46 point home blowout over TCU has Tech essentially even with Kansas
(less than half a point), suggesting overtime.  The average is nearly 6
points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 3.7 points.

Pomeroy has Tech with the #9 defense, whereas their offense is only #47,
so Tech hangs their hat on defense.  Expect a lower-scoring affair.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TTU     KU       Defensive Stats     TTU     KU
Points/Game         72.3    74.2     Opp Points/Game     63.4    60.6
Avg Score Margin    +8.8   +13.7     Opp Effective FG %  46.2    43.7
Assists/Game        15.4    14.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.4     9.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.2    38.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.0    26.5
Effective FG %      52.0    54.0     Blocks/Game          4.0     4.9
Off Rebound %       25.5    31.3     Steals/Game          7.8     7.7
FTA/FGA            0.350   0.359     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.6    14.6
Turnover %          17.7    16.3

Kansas leads in thirteen of the fifteen categories.  Tech gets 1.4 more
assists per game and steals 0.1 more balls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, all of which both
teams have played twice, so I'll be using only the home-home and
away-away permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us
seventeen scores to compare:

KU  +25 OSU at home (+21 neutral)     KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
TTU +35 OSU at home (+31 neutral)     TTU  -3 OSU on road ( +1 neutral)
KU  -14 TTU on road (-10 neutral)     KU  +14 TTU on road (+18 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)     KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)
TTU  -5 BU  at home ( -9 neutral)     TTU  -3 BU  on road ( +1 neutral)
KU  -11 TTU on road ( -7 neutral)     KU   +2 TTU on road ( +6 neutral)

KU   +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)     KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
TTU -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral)     TTU  +8 WVU at home ( +4 neutral)
KU  +17 TTU on road (+21 neutral)     KU   -5 TTU on orad ( -1 neutral)

KU   +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral)     KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
TTU +14 KSU on road (+18 neutral)     TTU  +7 KSU at home ( +3 neutral)
KU  -14 TTU on road (-10 neutral)     KU  +10 TTU at home (+14 neutral)

KU  +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)     KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
TTU +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)     TTU +30 ISU on road (+34 neutral)
KU   -4 TTU on road (  0 neutral)     KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)     KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral)
TTU -11 TCU on road ( -7 neutral)     TTU +46 TCU at home (+42 neutral)
KU  +21 TTU on road (+25 neutral)     KU  -41 TTU on road (-37 neutral)

KU  +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)     KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)
TTU  +8 OU  at home ( +4 neutral)     TTU -14 OU  on road (-10 neutral)
KU   +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral)     KU  +24 TTU on road (+28 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)     KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)
TTU  +5 UT  on road ( +9 neutral)     TTU -10 UT  at home (-14 neutral)
KU    0 TTU on road ( +4 neutral)     KU  +17 TTU on road (+21 neutral)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
KU   -5 TTU on road ( -1 neutral)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, while eight favor Texas Tech, and
one is a wash.  The average favors Kansas by only 0.47 points, with a
scatter of 16.28 points.  It's that TCU home game that allowed Tech to
narrow the gap with Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Davide Moretti (guard)
most points        Jahmi'us Ramsey (guard)
most rebounds      Chris Clarke (guard)
most assists       Chris Clarke (guard)
most steals        Jahmi'us Ramsey (guard)
most blocks        T. J. Holyfield (forward)
most turnovers     Chris Clarke (guard)
most fouls         T. J. Holyfield (forward)

Forward Tyreek Smith is out following leg surgery, but he hasn't been a
contributor, so no big loss.  Forward Joel Ntambwe is ineligible for the
season.  Silvio De Sousa is now eligible to play following his Big 12-imposed
suspension.  Self has indicated that he'll travel and suit up for the game,
which suggests that his own "indefinite" suspension is also over.  How much
he might play depends on the foul and injury situations for Doke and McCormack.

                                                          27-3          18-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +7.43   68   61       75       #  1   #  4    # 36   # 42 
Sagarin Predictor       +3.89   66   62       63.3     #  2   #  4    # 22   # 42 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.79   67   62                #  1   #  4    # 24   # 42 
Sagarin Recent Games   +12.17   70   58                #  1   #  4    # 64   # 42 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +9.61   69   60       80  
Massey                  +6.00   70   64       72       #  1   #  1    # 41   # 30
Pomeroy                 +4.14   66   62                #  1   #  2    # 21   # 44
Greenfield              +3.00   68   65                #  1   #  2    # 19   # 23
Dunkel                  +8.50   71   63                #  2           # 24                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   68.5 65                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +3.08   67   64       61.2     #  1   #  1    # 18   # 22
Real Time               +3.00   70   67       56.1     #  1   #  1    # 76   # 69 
Seven Overtimes         +9.00   72   63       87       #  1   #  6    # 66   # 47
DPPI                    +3.60   68   64       60.7     #  1   #  1    # 27   # 66
ESPN BPI                +3.50                 63.5     #  1   # 14    # 21   # 42
Whitlock                +6.62                          #  1   #  7    # 29   # 49
Colley Matrix          +15.02                          #  1   #  1    # 57   # 53
NCAA NET                                               #  1           # 22
LRMC                                                   #  1   #  1    # 13   # 67
common opponents        +0.47                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.96   68.6 62.9
scatter                  3.72    1.8  2.3  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 28-3.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -0.35    -1.65
HOME   # 91 NC Greensboro               74  62   +18.44    -6.44
HOME   #205 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.12   +27.88
HOME   # 70 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +16.42    -4.42
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 26 BYU                         71  56    +7.63    +7.37
NEUT   # 18 Dayton                      90  84    +6.54    -0.54
HOME   # 35 Colorado                    72  58   +12.35    +1.65
HOME   #256 Milwaukee                   95  68   +30.42    -3.42
NEUT   #227 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.44   +15.56
AWAY   # 16 Villanova                   55  56    +3.11    -4.11
AWAY   # 56 Stanford                    72  56    +8.37    +7.63
HOME   # 13 West Virginia               60  53    +9.08    -2.08
AWAY   # 65 Iowa State                  79  53    +9.32   +16.68
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +7.04   -19.04
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                    66  52    +6.78    +7.22
AWAY   # 48 Texas                       66  57    +7.08    +1.92
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                81  60   +17.39    +3.61
HOME   # 45 Tennessee                   74  68   +13.26    -7.26
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State              65  50    +8.51    +6.49
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                  78  75   +10.33    -7.33
HOME   # 48 Texas                       69  58   +13.52    -2.52
AWAY   # 66 TCU                         60  46    +9.54    +4.46
AWAY   # 13 West Virginia               58  49    +2.64    +6.36
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                    87  70   +13.22    +3.78
HOME   # 65 Iowa State                  91  71   +15.76    +4.24
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      64  61    +0.60    +2.40
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State              83  58   +14.95   +10.05
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                62  58   +10.95    -6.95
HOME   # 66 TCU                         75  66   +15.98    -6.98
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +3.89             0.633

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #230 Eastern Illinois            85  60   +21.56    +3.44
HOME   #297 Bethune-Cookman             79  44   +25.61    +9.39
NEUT   #343 Houston Baptist            103  74   +28.19    +0.81
HOME   #246 Tennessee State             72  57   +22.78    -7.78
HOME   #260 Long Island U.(LIU)         96  66   +23.50    +6.50
NEUT   # 23 Iowa                        61  72    +0.16   -11.16
NEUT   # 24 Creighton                   76  83    +0.17    -7.17
AWAY   # 93 DePaul                      60  65    +4.92    -9.92
NEUT   #  6 Louisville                  70  57    -2.57   +15.57
HOME   #268 Southern Miss               71  65   +23.95   -17.95
HOME   #239 UTRGV                       68  58   +22.29   -12.29
HOME   #248 CS Bakersfield              73  58   +22.90    -7.90
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State              85  50    +7.84   +27.16
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      52  57    -0.07    -4.93
AWAY   # 13 West Virginia               54  66    -4.47    -7.53
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                77  63    +3.84   +10.16
HOME   # 65 Iowa State                  72  52    +8.65   +11.35
AWAY   # 66 TCU                         54  65    +2.43   -13.43
HOME   # 14 Kentucky                    74  76    +2.20    -4.20
HOME   # 13 West Virginia               89  81    +1.97    +6.03
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                      75  78   -10.33    +7.33
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                    69  61    +6.11    +1.89
AWAY   # 48 Texas                       62  57    -0.03    +5.03
HOME   # 66 TCU                         88  42    +8.87   +37.13
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State              70  73    +1.40    -4.40
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                69  62   +10.28    -3.28
AWAY   # 65 Iowa State                  87  57    +2.21   +27.79
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                    51  65    -0.33   -13.67
HOME   # 48 Texas                       58  68    +6.41   -16.41
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      68  71    -6.51    +3.51
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -3.89             0.367