projected Big 12 standings, Round 17

BIG 12 CHAMPS!!

Oklahoma snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by missing free throws and allowing Texas
to bank in a buzzer-beating trey.  Coupled with Texas Tech's loss to Baylor, the Longhorns
suddenly find themselves climbing two spots into third place.  West Virginia's road win over
Iowa State, coupled with that Sooner home loss, enabled the Mountaineers to move back into
the upper division at the Sooners' expense.  No other changes in the projected standings,
though the Kansas home win over TCU guaranteed the Jayhawks at least a share of the Big 12
championship.  Baylor's game this Saturday tips an hour before the Jayhawks and Red Raiders
tip, so barring overtime, the Jayhawks should know by halftime whether they need to win to
avoid sharing the crown.  It should be a wild finale, as all five games are projected to be
at most two-possession affairs.  It's possible there could be a four-way tie for third place
with .500 records.  Imagine that; it's possible that only two teams could finish above .500
in conference play.  Lunardi now has the Big 12 with six teams in the Big Dance, and Self
thinks that TCU has an outside chance at dancing with a win on Saturday and a couple more
wins in the Big 12 tournament.  But might that come at the expense of the Sooners dancing?
Because Saturday's games are the last of the regular season, the fractional projected wins
are just the individual probabilities of winning that game.  You will notice that each pair
of teams' probabilities add to exactly 1 in each case.  That is, one of the two teams will
win that game.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.60  14.97  13.72  14.14  14.28  14.36  14.77  14.89  14.97  15.20
#  5  Baylor          10.99  11.45  12.05  13.33  13.60  14.01  14.05  14.59  14.77  15.00  15.13
# 47  Texas            7.25   6.83   5.71   6.47   7.45   7.58   6.62   7.58   7.95   8.05   7.54
# 22  Texas Tech       9.33  10.29   9.45   9.01   9.55   9.96   9.31   9.93   9.88  10.11  10.63
# 12  West Virginia   10.73  10.79  11.92  12.22  12.64  11.31  11.91  11.37  11.56  11.76  11.03
# 42  Oklahoma         7.19   7.31   8.46   7.91   7.50   8.05   7.93   7.47   7.97   7.61   8.37
# 67  TCU              7.46   7.73   8.21   8.83   8.37   7.71   8.49   7.58   7.33   6.82   6.60
# 57  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.89   7.30   6.57   5.68   5.50   5.06   4.52   3.93   4.47   4.31
# 64  Iowa State       8.35   8.00   7.45   7.86   7.61   6.82   7.44   6.72   6.24   6.04   6.40
# 79  Kansas State     5.30   5.11   4.48   4.08   3.46   4.78   4.83   5.47   5.48   5.17   4.79

                      Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16  Rd 17  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          15.67  15.75  15.87  16.33  16.48  16.58  16.63   16  1  @TTU (Sa)   KU  by  3.9
#  5  Baylor          15.46  15.87  16.32  15.83  15.94  15.21  15.45   15  2  @WVU (Sa)   
# 47  Texas            7.14   6.61   7.06   7.60   8.27   9.00   9.64    9  8   OSU (Sa)   UT  by  4.7
# 22  Texas Tech      11.01  10.35  10.42  10.94  10.35   9.63   9.37    9  8   KU  (Sa)   
# 12  West Virginia   10.51  10.14  10.36   9.63   8.93   8.12   8.55    8  9   BU  (Sa)   WVU by  1.2
# 42  Oklahoma         8.86   8.74   8.38   7.83   8.39   9.14   8.49    8  9  @TCU (Sa)   
# 67  TCU              6.34   6.79   6.38   7.17   6.78   7.55   7.51    7 10   OU  (Sa)   TCU by  0.4
# 57  Oklahoma State   4.87   5.50   5.23   5.82   5.65   6.05   6.36    6 11  @UT  (Sa)   
# 64  Iowa State       5.96   6.49   6.43   5.85   6.27   5.85   5.44    5 12  @KSU (Sa)   
# 79  Kansas State     4.18   3.76   3.55   3.00   2.94   2.87   2.56    2 15   ISU (Sa)   KSU by  1.6

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 17, his second win of the season.  ESPN's BPI
regained the season lead marginally over Massey.  RealTimeRPI turned in the worst performance, and
Colley is now bringing up the rear for the season.  Recall that Whitlock is ineligible for season
honors due to having been included for only 35 of the 85 games.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over TCU  16.6  21.0  17.0  16.0  11.0  16.5  16.4  23.3  19.0  20.9  14.0  23.0  19.3  17.6  23.9
BU  over TTU   6.9  12.0   8.1   7.5   3.0   8.0   6.0  16.8   9.7   8.0  12.0  16.0   7.0   7.9   5.7
OSU over KSU   5.7   8.0   6.1   6.5   2.0   6.5   5.3  12.6   6.8   7.4   3.0  23.0   6.6   6.7   9.9
OU  over UT    3.8   6.0   5.6   7.0   2.0   6.5   5.1   4.4   5.6   5.6   1.0   8.0   5.9   4.8   5.7
WVU over ISU   3.2   3.0   5.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   3.8   8.4   5.1   5.1  10.0   3.0   5.3   2.2   4.4

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  -------2.5----------------2-----3-----------1-----------1----3.5----3-----------1-------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
         9     7.6  12.0   8.0   7.0   2.0   7.5   7.4  14.3  10.0  11.9   5.0  14.0  10.3   8.6  14.9
         3     3.9   9.0   5.1   4.5   0.0   5.0   3.0  13.8   6.7   5.0   9.0  13.0   4.0   4.9   2.7
         6     0.3   2.0   0.1   0.5   4.0   0.5   0.7   6.6   0.8   1.4   3.0  17.0   0.6   0.7   3.9
        -1     4.8   7.0   6.6   8.0   3.0   7.5   6.1   5.4   6.6   6.6   2.0   9.0   6.9   5.8   6.7
         6     2.8   3.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   2.2   2.4   0.9   0.9   4.0   3.0   0.7   3.8   1.6

total         19.4  33.0  20.8  20.0  12.0  21.5  19.4  42.5  25.0  25.8  23.0  56.0  22.5  23.8  29.8
previous     788.0 755.0 775.2 791.0 866.5 781.5 791.9 846.8 335.8 759.9 841.0 823.0 783.7 777.8 807.1
cumulative   807.4 788.0 796.0 811.0 878.5 803.0 811.3 889.3 360.8 785.7 864.0 879.0 806.2 801.6 836.9
per game       9.5   9.3   9.4   9.5  10.3   9.4   9.5  10.5  10.3   9.2  10.2  10.3   9.5   9.4   9.8

Only one road win was projected for Round 17, but two happened, with Texas getting the buzzer-beater
in Norman.  Only one road win is projected for Round 18 (Kansas at Texas Tech), but all five games
are projected as two-possession games.  If two happen, then we will finish the season exactly on
the long-term average of one road win in every three conference games.

Road wins (28 out of 85)                          Home losses                              Differential
------------------------------------------------  ---------------------------------------  ------------
8 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU TCU WVU BU  KSU  1 Baylor         KU                      +7 KU
7 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU UT  OU       1 Kansas         BU                      +6 BU
5 Texas          OSU TCU KSU TTU OU               2 TCU            UT  KU                  +1 UT
3 Texas Tech     KSU UT  ISU                      2 Texas Tech     BU  UT                  +1 TTU
2 Oklahoma       UT  WVU                          2 West Virginia  KU  OU                  -1 OU
1 Oklahoma State KSU                              3 Iowa State     KU  BU  TTU             -1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                              3 Oklahoma       KU  BU  UT              -1 WVU
1 West Virginia  OSU                              4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU          -3 ISU
0 Iowa State                                      4 Texas          OU  KU  TTU BU          -3 OSU
0 Kansas State                                    6 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU  OSU UT  KU  -6 KSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +1.89    Baylor            7.24    
Baylor          +1.35    Kansas State      8.75    
Texas Tech      +1.09    Kansas            9.05    
West Virginia   +0.83    Oklahoma         10.50    
Oklahoma        +0.23    West Virginia    11.25    
Oklahoma State  -0.02    TCU              11.88    
TCU             -0.84    Texas            12.06    
Kansas State    -0.89    Iowa State       12.49    
Iowa State      -1.12    Texas Tech       13.42    
Texas           -1.68    Oklahoma State   14.17    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma        +0.23 +/- 0.22    Baylor          +0.20 +/- 0.13
Texas Tech      +0.18 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.21
Texas           +0.17 +/- 0.26    Texas Tech      +0.11 +/- 0.23
Baylor          +0.06 +/- 0.16    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.02 +/- 0.19    Texas            0.00 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma State  -0.04 +/- 0.30    Iowa State      -0.16 +/- 0.20
Kansas          -0.13 +/- 0.20    West Virginia   -0.28 +/- 0.28
TCU             -0.18 +/- 0.27    Kansas          -0.30 +/- 0.23
West Virginia   -0.27 +/- 0.24    Oklahoma State  -0.49 +/- 0.29
Iowa State      -0.31 +/- 0.26    TCU             -0.56 +/- 0.22

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          73.90   Baylor          59.93   Iowa State      145.13   Kansas          +12.97   
Iowa State      71.87   Kansas          60.93   Oklahoma        137.07   Baylor          +11.10   
Texas Tech      71.87   West Virginia   62.57   Texas Tech      135.70   Texas Tech       +8.03   
Baylor          71.03   Texas           63.03   Kansas          134.83   West Virginia    +7.33   
West Virginia   69.90   Texas Tech      63.83   Oklahoma State  133.17   Oklahoma         +2.47   
Oklahoma        69.77   TCU             65.55   West Virginia   132.47   Texas            +0.97   
Oklahoma State  66.67   Kansas State    65.83   Baylor          130.97   Oklahoma State   +0.17   
TCU             64.52   Oklahoma State  66.50   TCU             130.07   TCU              -1.03   
Texas           64.00   Oklahoma        67.30   Kansas State    129.63   Iowa State       -1.40   
Kansas State    63.80   Iowa State      73.27   Texas           127.03   Kansas State     -2.03   

For reasons that I find hard to understand, Iowa State's home game with West Virginia
didn't help the Cyclones' strength of schedule as much as Kansas' home game with TCU
helped the Jayhawks' strength of schedule, so Kansas finds itself back on top of the
Big 12.  A road game against Texas Tech should keep the Jayhawks on top, given that
Iowa State's road game is against bottom-feeder Kansas State.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          81.82 ( 4)
Iowa State      81.74 ( 5)
Oklahoma        81.23 (11)
Kansas State    81.14 (13)
Oklahoma State  80.88 (19)
West Virginia   80.72 (23)
Texas           80.08 (30)
TCU             80.03 (32)
Baylor          79.84 (36) 
Texas Tech      79.51 (42)

The Big 12 and the Big Ten have gobbled up all the top strength of schedule rankings
as they battle one another.  I expect Michigan to sag after playing a home game
against bottom-feeder Nebraska today.  Purdue has a home game with middling Rutgers
on Saturday, while Minnesota has a home game with bottom-feeder Nebraska on Sunday.
However, Michigan is at Maryland on Sunday and could take over the top spot.
Whether the Jayhawks' road game with Texas Tech will be enough to claim second
place is unclear.  If Kansas advances farther in the Big 12 Tournament than
Minnesota does in the Big Ten Tournament, then it should be Kansas and Michigan
battling it out for the top spot.

Schedule Strength Top 10
--------------------------
Minnesota       82.95 ( 1)
Michigan        82.80 ( 2)
Purdue          82.20 ( 3)
Kansas          81.82 ( 4)
Iowa State      81.74 ( 5)
Michigan State  81.71 ( 6)
Iowa            81.52 ( 7)
Wisconsin       81.46 ( 8)
Northwestern    81.28 ( 9)
Maryland        81.26 (10)