predictions for TCU game

Can lightning strike twice?

TCU gave Kansas the lead in the race for the Big 12 crown by beating
Baylor in Fort Worth this past Saturday.  Can they make history by
beating both #2 and #1 in consecutive games?  Can the Horned Frogs
giveth and then taketh away?

Perhaps even more amazingly, TCU managed to beat Baylor without two
of their players.  It's unclear if they'll be available for today's
game, but hey, if they can beat Baylor without them, that says a lot
about the bench.

The difference, of course, is that Saturday's game was in Fort Worth.
Today's game is in the friendly confines of Allen Field House, and
it's Senior Night, no less.  It's unclear whether Udoka will play,
and getting him healthy for the NCAA Tournament is presumably a
bigger priority, so if he does play, I suspect it will be for minimal
minutes, and perhaps late in the game, so that when Self takes him
out of the game, the crowd will know it's time to give him a standing
ovation.  McCormack will need to avoid the foul fest that he's become
known for lately, otherwise it'll be a five guard line-up, as Silvio
won't be eligible until this weekend, and that's according to the
Big 12.   Self's penalty was an indefinite suspension, which means it
could last longer than the Big 12's suspension.  They won't burn
Lightfoot's redshirt, not at this point in the season, especially with
Silvio available starting this Saturday.

The various predictions average 18.7 points in favor of Kansas.  The
most optimistic is the DPPI at 23.8 points, followed closely by
Sagarin's Eignevector analysis at 23.5 points, then Colley at 23.3
points, then RealTimeRPI at 23.0 points.  The most pessimistic is
Dunkel at just 11.0 points, followed by Seven Overtimes at just 14.0
points.

Sagarin Predictor says 16.6 points, but only once has Kansas played
more than 16.6 points below expectation, the first Baylor game, as we
all well know.  TCU has played above expectation by more than 16.6
points only twice, in essentially their first and last non-conference
games against Louisiana and George Mason (I'm ignoring the opener
against Division III Southwestern and the SEC Challenge game embedded
in the conference schedule).  That's just three instances out of 58
total games played by both teams for just a 5 percent chance of Kansas
losing today's home finale (there are no Sagarin ratings for either
Chaminade or Southwestern, so those games can't be included in the
computations).

The trend and mental toughness ratings are negative for both teams,
though the trend for Kansas is not statistically significant, and a
negative mental toughness rating actually helps against a weaker
opponent, so they give Kansas a 3 point boost.  TCU's negative trend 
is barely significant, but their mental toughness is highly significant,
and it costs them dearly against a tough opponent (though they overcame
that against Baylor), hurting the Horned Frogs by 11 points.  So if I
had included my trend analysis in the list below, it would be the most
optimistic at 23.9 points.

TCU is in the middle of the conference in terms of inconsistency, yet
more inconsistent than the national average.  Their trip to Lubbock
resulted in playing more than 36 points below expectation, a rare
event indeed.  In fact, the only time TCU played above expectation in
a conference road game was against Kansas State, their first conference
road game of the season.  So maybe we can discount their two most recent
home game victories over West Virginia and Baylor.

For me, the wild card is whether Udoka plays or not.  That's a big
source of uncertainty.  He's really come a long ways this season, and
is now grabbing more rebounds, blocking more shots, and getting more
dunks with his footwork and post moves.  Bane is the key for TCU, and
Garrett should be able to negate a lot of his offense.  TCU's defense
is only ranked #64 by Pomeroy, so Dotson should be able to get to the
rim a lot.  Of course, if we decide to jack up a lot of threes and
miss most, it can be one of those games, but it would take Doke being
out and McCormack being on the bench with foul trouble before we'd
have no inside game.

Another intangible:  When was the last time Kansas lost on Senior Night?
And with a share of the Big 12 title ours to earn?

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TCU     KU       Defensive Stats     TCU     KU
Points/Game         65.0    74.2     Opp Points/Game     64.7    60.4
Avg Score Margin    +0.3   +13.8     Opp Effective FG %  49.3    43.4
Assists/Game        14.4    14.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.8     9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.5    38.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.5    26.6
Effective FG %      49.1    53.9     Blocks/Game          4.8     4.9
Off Rebound %       30.5    30.8     Steals/Game          6.8     7.6
FTA/FGA            0.280   0.357     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.5    14.7
Turnover %          18.4    16.2

Kansas leads in thirteen of the fifteen categories.  TCU has fractional
more assists per game and grabs fractional more offensive rebounds per
game.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, one of which TCU
has played twice (Texas Tech), one of which Kansas has played twice
(Oklahoma), and six of which both have played twice (everybody else),
in which case only the home-home and away-away permutations will be
used, plus the head-to-head in Fort Worth, giving us seventeen scores
to compare:

KU  +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)     KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
TCU  +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral)     TCU  -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral)
KU  +22 TCU at home (+18 neutral)     KU  +37 TCU at home (+33 neutral)

KU   +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral)     KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
TCU  +2 KSU on road ( +6 neutral)     TCU +11 KSU at home ( +7 neutral)
KU   +6 TCU at home ( +2 neutral)     KU  +14 TCU at home (+10 neutral)

KU  +25 OSU at home (+21 neutral)     KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
TCU +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral)     TCU -15 OSU on road (-11 neutral)
KU  +17 TCU at home (+13 neutral)     KU  +34 TCU at home (+30 neutral)

KU   +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)     KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
TCU -32 WVU on road (-28 neutral)     TCU  +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
KU  +45 TCU at home (+41 neutral)     KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)     KU  +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)
TCU -20 OU  on road (-16 neutral)     TCU -20 OU  on road (-16 neutral)
KU  +38 TCU at home (+34 neutral)     KU  +33 TCU at home (+29 neutral)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
TCU +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral)     TCU -46 TTU on road (-42 neutral)
KU   -4 TCU at home ( -8 neutral)     KU  +45 TCU at home (+41 neutral)

KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)
TCU  -1 UT  at home ( -5 neutral)     TCU -14 UT  on road (-10 neutral)
KU  +16 TCU at home (+12 neutral)     KU  +27 TCU at home (+23 neutral)

KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)     KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral) 
KU  -16 BU  on road (-12 neutral)     TCU  +3 BU  at home ( -1 neutral)
KU  +23 TCU at home (+19 neutral)     KU  -11 TCU at home (-15 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
KU  +22 TCU at home (+18 neutral)

Fifteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor TCU.
The average favors Kansas by 21.6 points with a scatter of 16.4 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Desmond Bane (guard)
most points        Desmond Bane (guard)
most rebounds      Kevin Samuel (center)
most assists       Desmond Bane (guard)
most steals        Desmond Bane (guard)
most blocks        Kevin Samuel (center)
most turnovers     R. J. Nembhard (guard)
most fouls         Jaedon Ledee (forward)

Nembhard has sat out the last two games with a groin injury, and it's unknown
if he will be able to play against Kansas.  He's second in minutes played, and
so is a significant contributor.  Guard Francisco Farabello has been held from
competition for the last two games with concussion-like symptoms, and it's
unknown if he will be able to play.  He's fifth in minutes played, so represents
a fairly significant contributor as well.  Then again, TCU managed to beat Baylor
without either of them.  Forward Mickey Pearson Jr. is redshirting this season.

                                                          26-3          16-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +17.39   71   53       92       #  1   #  4    # 69   # 39 
Sagarin Predictor      +16.58   70   54       94.1     #  2   #  4    # 70   # 39 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +16.63   70   54                #  1   #  4    # 65   # 39 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.27   72   52                #  1   #  4    # 74   # 39 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +23.50   74   50       95  
Massey                 +21.00   74   53       96       #  1   #  1    # 70   # 49
Pomeroy                +17.01   70   53                #  1   #  3    # 84   # 35
Greenfield             +16.00   72.5 56.5              #  1   #  1    # 76   # 54
Dunkel                 +11.00   71.5 60.5              #  2           # 87                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +16.50   72.5 56                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +16.37   73   56       93.6     #  1   #  1    # 86   # 45
Real Time              +23.00   81   58       84.6     #  1   #  1    #103   # 48 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   73   59       88       #  1   #  4    #134   #  9
DPPI                   +23.80   77   53       98.6     #  1   #  1    # 91   # 32
ESPN BPI               +20.90                 96.8     #  1   #  9    # 97   # 48
Whitlock               +19.00                          #  1   #  7    # 76   # 38
Colley Matrix          +23.27                          #  1   #  1    # 74   # 26
NCAA NET                                               #  1           # 92
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    #117   # 29
common opponents       +21.65                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +18.7    73.0 54.9
scatter                  3.6     3.0  2.9  

The only ones not ranking Kansas as #1 are Sagarin Predictor (Duke by 0.25 points),
Dunkel (Gonzaga), and LRMC (Gonzaga).

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 28-3.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -0.25    -1.75
HOME   # 89 NC Greensboro               74  62   +18.45    -6.45
HOME   #201 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.21   +27.79
HOME   # 69 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +16.57    -4.57
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 26 BYU                         71  56    +7.70    +7.30
NEUT   # 21 Dayton                      90  84    +7.20    -1.20
HOME   # 34 Colorado                    72  58   +12.34    +1.66
HOME   #258 Milwaukee                   95  68   +30.55    -3.55
NEUT   #231 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.72   +15.28
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                   55  56    +3.54    -4.54
AWAY   # 55 Stanford                    72  56    +8.45    +7.55
HOME   # 12 West Virginia               60  53    +9.12    -2.12
AWAY   # 64 Iowa State                  79  53    +9.43   +16.57
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +7.25   -19.25
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma                    66  52    +6.75    +7.25
AWAY   # 48 Texas                       66  57    +7.15    +1.85
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                81  60   +17.69    +3.31
HOME   # 45 Tennessee                   74  68   +13.27    -7.27
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State              65  50    +8.74    +6.26
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                  78  75   +10.52    -7.52
HOME   # 48 Texas                       69  58   +13.61    -2.61
AWAY   # 70 TCU                         60  46   +10.13    +3.87
AWAY   # 12 West Virginia               58  49    +2.66    +6.34
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma                    87  70   +13.21    +3.79
HOME   # 64 Iowa State                  91  71   +15.89    +4.11
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      64  61    +0.79    +2.21
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State              83  58   +15.20    +9.80
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                62  58   +11.23    -7.23
HOME   # 70 TCU                                  +16.59             0.941
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +4.06             0.637

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div3        Southwestern                83  62
HOME   #215 Louisiana                   98  65   +14.59   +18.41
HOME   #211 Air Force                   65  54   +14.39    -3.39
HOME   #106 UC Irvine                   59  58    +6.68    -5.68
NEUT   # 58 Clemson                     60  62    -1.33    -0.67
NEUT   #261 Wyoming                     64  47   +14.11    +2.89
HOME   #200 Illinois State              81  69   +13.76    -1.76
HOME   # 60 Southern California         78  80    +2.13    -4.13
HOME   #146 Winthrop                    70  60    +9.56    +0.44
HOME   #259 Lamar                       79  50   +17.20   +11.80
HOME   # 44 Xavier-Ohio                 59  67    -0.14    -7.86
HOME   #170 George Mason                87  53   +11.26   +22.74
HOME   # 64 Iowa State                  81  79    +2.53    -0.53
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                59  57    -2.13    +4.13
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State              52  40    +1.84   +10.16
AWAY   # 12 West Virginia               49  81   -10.70   -21.30
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma                    63  83    -6.61   -13.39
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                  65  54    -2.84   +13.84
AWAY   # 40 Arkansas                    67  78    -6.70    -4.30
HOME   # 48 Texas                       61  62    +0.25    -1.25
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      52  68   -12.57    -3.43
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State              57  72    -4.62   -10.38
HOME   #  2 Kansas                      46  60   -10.13    -3.87
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                  42  88    -9.30   -36.70
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                68  57    +4.33    +6.67
AWAY   # 48 Texas                       56  70    -6.21    -7.79
HOME   # 12 West Virginia               67  60    -4.24   +11.24
AWAY   # 64 Iowa State                  59  66    -3.93    -3.07
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      75  72    -6.11    +9.11
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -16.59             0.059
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma                              -0.15             0.495