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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
projected Big 12 standings, Round 15
- asteroid
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4 years 9 months ago #25062
by asteroid
No changes in the projected standings. However, there were a few notable developments. First,
Duke's loss finally dropped the Blue Devils' Predictor rating below that of Kansas, allowing the
Jayhawks to take the top spot in all four of Sagarin's rating methods. Second, the wins by both
Kansas and Baylor eliminated Texas Tech from the conference race, as did their own loss to the
Sooners. It's now a two-horse race with three to play. A win on Saturday would earn the
Jayhawks another 0.11 of a projected win, which would then round up to a 17-1 conference record,
while a win by Baylor would earn the Bears another 0.24 of a projected win, which still rounds
down to a 16-2 conference record. Although West Virginia has been abysmal on the road, only
Kansas has managed to beat them in Morgantown, so Baylor is still looking at a projected loss
there.
Init. Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 1 Kansas 14.45 15.20 15.67 15.75 15.87 16.33 16.48 14 1 @KSU (Sa) KU by 11.6
# 5 Baylor 10.99 15.13 15.46 15.87 16.32 15.83 15.94 14 1 @TCU (Sa) BU by 6.9
# 18 Texas Tech 9.33 10.63 11.01 10.35 10.42 10.94 10.35 9 6 UT (Sa) TTU by 7.3
# 9 West Virginia 10.73 11.03 10.51 10.14 10.36 9.63 8.93 7 8 OU (Sa) WVU by 7.8
# 41 Oklahoma 7.19 8.37 8.86 8.74 8.38 7.83 8.39 7 8 @WVU (Sa)
# 51 Texas 7.25 7.54 7.14 6.61 7.06 7.60 8.27 7 8 @TTU (Sa)
# 70 TCU 7.46 6.60 6.34 6.79 6.38 7.17 6.78 6 9 BU (Sa)
# 59 Iowa State 8.35 6.40 5.96 6.49 6.43 5.85 6.27 5 10 @OSU (Sa)
# 57 Oklahoma State 8.95 4.31 4.87 5.50 5.23 5.82 5.65 4 11 ISU (Sa) OSU by 3.3
# 84 Kansas State 5.30 4.79 4.18 3.76 3.55 3.00 2.94 2 13 KU (Sa)
RealTimeRPI won honors for best prognostications in Round 15. Massey is back in the lead for the
season. Seven Overtimes turned in the worst performance. Dunkel is still pulling up the rear for
the season.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
KU over OSU 14.6 20.0 16.4 14.5 16.0 14.5 14.9 23.5 18.0 17.9 16.0 23.0 17.2 15.6 19.2
BU over KSU 14.0 23.0 16.2 14.0 10.0 14.5 13.1 29.8 18.9 18.2 17.0 25.0 16.4 15.0 15.0
ISU over TCU 4.4 5.0 3.6 2.5 0.0 2.0 4.3 -0.6 3.5 5.9 -1.0 6.0 3.9 5.4 1.4
WVU over UT 3.2 3.0 4.9 5.5 1.5 5.5 4.1 3.8 4.8 3.7 4.0 -2.0 6.2 2.2 4.4
TTU over OU 0.8 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.0 3.0 1.8 -3.0 0.4 2.8 6.0 -5.0 2.4 -0.2 4.7
Reality Error
------- -------2.5----------------1-----3-----------1-----------1----3.5----3-------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
25 10.4 5.0 8.6 10.5 9.0 10.5 10.1 1.5 7.0 7.1 9.0 2.0 7.8 9.4 5.8
19 5.0 4.0 2.8 5.0 9.0 4.5 5.9 10.8 0.1 0.8 2.0 6.0 2.6 4.0 4.0
6 1.6 1.0 2.4 3.5 6.0 4.0 1.7 6.6 2.5 0.1 7.0 0.0 2.1 0.6 4.6
-10 13.2 13.0 14.9 15.5 11.5 15.5 14.1 13.8 14.8 13.7 14.0 8.0 16.2 12.2 14.4
-14 14.8 15.0 15.7 16.0 15.0 17.0 15.8 11.0 14.4 16.8 20.0 9.0 16.4 13.8 18.7
total 45.0 38.0 44.4 50.5 50.5 51.5 47.6 43.7 38.8 38.5 52.0 25.0 45.1 40.0 47.5
previous 680.7 646.0 664.9 677.0 752.5 666.5 681.9 725.6 225.9 645.7 720.0 728.0 668.1 676.5 695.4
cumulative 725.7 684.0 709.3 727.5 803.0 718.0 729.5 769.3 264.7 684.2 772.0 753.0 713.2 716.5 742.9
per game 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.7 10.7 9.6 9.7 10.3 10.6 9.1 10.3 10.0 9.5 9.6 9.9
Two road wins were projected for Round 15, but neither happened. West Virginia's
dreadfulness on the road continued, and the toss-up game with Texas Tech at
Oklahoma wasn't nearly as close as expected. The Sooner kept their tournament
hopes alive. So we're now one road win shy of the long-term average of one in three.
Two road wins are projected for Round 16 with the conference leaders expected to
add another column to the table below.
Road wins (24 out of 75) Home losses Differential
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ -----------------
7 Baylor TTU KU OSU ISU KSU UT OU 1 Baylor KU +6 Baylor
7 Kansas ISU OU UT OSU TCU WVU BU 1 Kansas BU +6 Kansas
3 Texas OSU TCU KSU 1 Texas Tech BU +2 Texas Tech
3 Texas Tech KSU UT ISU 1 West Virginia KU 0 West Virginia
1 Oklahoma UT 2 Oklahoma KU BU -1 Oklahoma
1 Oklahoma State KSU 2 TCU UT KU -1 TCU
1 TCU KSU 3 Iowa State KU BU TTU -1 Texas
1 West Virginia OSU 4 Oklahoma State WVU UT BU KU -3 Iowa State
0 Iowa State 4 Texas OU KU TTU BU -3 Oklahoma State
0 Kansas State 5 Kansas State TCU TTU BU OSU UT -5 Kansas State
Kansas and Kansas State are effectively tied for second place among the
conference's most consistent teams. One will finish below expectation
by the same amount that the other finishes above expectation after
Saturday's game, meaning the relative order is unlikely to change.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Kansas +2.21 Baylor 7.19
Baylor +1.45 Kansas State 8.94
Texas Tech +1.26 Kansas 8.95
West Virginia +0.97 Oklahoma 10.21
Oklahoma State -0.06 West Virginia 11.00
Oklahoma -0.07 Texas 11.74
TCU -0.63 TCU 12.05
Kansas State -0.90 Iowa State 12.79
Iowa State -1.37 Texas Tech 13.41
Texas -1.99 Oklahoma State 14.47
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Texas Tech +0.33 +/- 0.31 Baylor +0.23 +/- 0.13
Baylor +0.19 +/- 0.18 Texas Tech +0.10 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma +0.18 +/- 0.24 Oklahoma +0.06 +/- 0.21
Texas +0.02 +/- 0.28 Kansas State -0.01 +/- 0.16
Kansas -0.01 +/- 0.23 Texas -0.10 +/- 0.23
Kansas State -0.03 +/- 0.21 Iowa State -0.15 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State -0.10 +/- 0.34 West Virginia -0.29 +/- 0.27
West Virginia -0.21 +/- 0.26 Kansas -0.35 +/- 0.23
Iowa State -0.32 +/- 0.30 Oklahoma State -0.49 +/- 0.30
TCU -0.38 +/- 0.29 TCU -0.75 +/- 0.23
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Kansas 74.30 Baylor 59.07 Iowa State 145.43 Kansas +13.44
Texas Tech 72.50 Kansas 60.85 Oklahoma 138.36 Baylor +11.93
Iowa State 72.29 West Virginia 61.89 Texas Tech 135.93 Texas Tech +9.07
Baylor 71.00 Texas Tech 63.43 Kansas 135.15 West Virginia +8.04
Oklahoma 70.32 Texas 63.79 Oklahoma State 133.18 Oklahoma +2.29
West Virginia 69.93 TCU 64.96 West Virginia 131.82 Texas +0.36
Oklahoma State 66.50 Kansas State 65.86 Baylor 130.07 Oklahoma State -0.18
Texas 64.14 Oklahoma State 66.68 Kansas State 129.89 Iowa State -0.86
TCU 64.07 Oklahoma 68.04 TCU 129.04 TCU -0.89
Kansas State 64.04 Iowa State 73.14 Texas 127.93 Kansas State -1.82
Minnesota is sitting at 82.01, but they have a home game with #4 Maryland today that will
likely boost their strength of schedule rating. The question is, by how much? They play
at #20 Wisconsin on Sunday, while we play at #114 Kansas State on Saturday. Minnesota
will likely take over the top spot this weekend. Us playing at Tech will be the last
boost for the regular season. Minnesota is more likely to get knocked out of the B1G
tournament earlier and not face the top teams, while Kansas could very well be playing
Baylor again, so we'll have a better chance at retaking the top spot. But for the moment,
Kansas has #1 rankings across the board according to Sagarin.
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 82.14 ( 1)
Iowa State 81.69 ( 5)
Oklahoma State 81.33 ( 7)
Oklahoma 81.28 ( 8)
West Virginia 80.58 (20)
Kansas State 80.47 (22)
Baylor 79.51 (33)
Texas 79.46 (34)
TCU 79.07 (42)
Texas Tech 78.81 (47)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, jayhawk969, Socalhawk, porthawk, KMT
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- NotOstertag
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4 years 9 months ago #25068
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Kind of interesting that most years, if you have 14 wins, you win the conference. In fact, since the conference went to an 18 game schedule in only once has 14 not been enough (2012, KU won 16, Mizzou was #2 at 14). In fact, it hasn't taken more than 14 games (i.e. 2nd place team won 13) to win as far back as 2000 (as far as I've looked).
Granted, if KU and Baylor tie, the next highest potential wins would go to Tech who could finish with 12 wins, so 13 wins would still be the minimum necessary to win the conference. The fact that KU and Baylor are both at 14 means that it's possible that it will take 17 wins to win the conference if either KU or Baylor drops a game.
Bottom line, 14 has historically been enough. We're at 14 now and nothing has yet been decided. Crazy year.
Granted, if KU and Baylor tie, the next highest potential wins would go to Tech who could finish with 12 wins, so 13 wins would still be the minimum necessary to win the conference. The fact that KU and Baylor are both at 14 means that it's possible that it will take 17 wins to win the conference if either KU or Baylor drops a game.
Bottom line, 14 has historically been enough. We're at 14 now and nothing has yet been decided. Crazy year.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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