projected Big 12 standings, Round 14

TCU's home win over West Virginia, coupled with Iowa State's home loss to Texas Tech, enabled
the Horned Frogs to leapfrog the Cyclones for seventh place.  And of course, Kansas reclaimed
the top spot after beating Baylor in Waco.  No other changes in the projected standings, though
it's worth noting that West Virginia has now been mathematically eliminated from the race for
the conference crown.  Kansas and Baylor get home games against bottom feeders in Round 15, so
the best each can do is pick up 0.1 (Kansas) or 0.05 (Baylor) of a win, plus whatever the
updated ratings provide.  If either one wins, Tech will be mathematically eliminated.

                      Init.  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.97  15.20  15.67  15.75  15.87  16.33   13  1   OSU (Mo)   KU  by 14.6
#  5  Baylor          10.99  15.00  15.13  15.46  15.87  16.32  15.83   13  1   KSU (Tu)   BU  by 14.0
# 15  Texas Tech       9.33  10.11  10.63  11.01  10.35  10.42  10.94    9  5  @OU  (Tu)   TTU by  0.7
#  7  West Virginia   10.73  11.76  11.03  10.51  10.14  10.36   9.63    7  7  @UT  (Mo)   WVU by  3.2
# 46  Oklahoma         7.19   7.61   8.37   8.86   8.74   8.38   7.83    6  8   TTU (Tu)   
# 54  Texas            7.25   8.05   7.54   7.14   6.61   7.06   7.60    6  8   WVU (Mo)   
# 71  TCU              7.46   6.82   6.60   6.34   6.79   6.38   7.17    6  8  @ISU (Tu)   
# 59  Iowa State       8.35   6.04   6.40   5.96   6.49   6.43   5.85    4 10   TCU (Tu)   ISU by  4.5
# 55  Oklahoma State   8.95   4.47   4.31   4.87   5.50   5.23   5.82    4 10  @KU  (Mo)   
# 82  Kansas State     5.30   5.17   4.79   4.18   3.76   3.55   3.00    2 12  @BU  (Tu)   

Seven Overtimes and RealTimeRPI tied for honors in Round 14.  Not a particularly good round for
anybody.  ESPN's BPI has taken over the season lead by a hair over Massey, which could well be
an artifact of the fact that Massey does only integer margin predictions, while the BPI does go
to tenths of a point.  My trend analysis turned in the worst performance of the round, while
Dunkel remains in the cellar.  These are the Big 12 Prognosticators, where the champion is crowned
in uncompromising fashion, the competition is unparalleled, and excitement is unleashed (a little
shoulder wiggle in there).

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
WVU over TCU     6.2   7.0   7.4   4.5  13.5   5.0   6.0   9.5   7.3   7.6   7.0   3.0   8.1   5.2   9.2
TTU over ISU     1.3   3.0   3.1   6.0   9.0   5.0   2.4   3.9   2.5   2.9   4.0   1.0   3.4   0.3   5.5
OSU over OU      0.7  -1.0   0.1   1.5  -4.5   1.0   1.4  -2.5  -1.0   1.7   1.0   6.0   0.9   1.7   0.2
KSU over UT      0.5   2.0   1.7   4.5   0.0   4.5   2.4  -7.5   0.5   2.1  -1.0   1.0   2.2   1.5   3.3
KU  over BU      0.4  -2.0  -0.9  -1.5   1.5  -2.0   0.2  -2.0  -0.4  -1.3  -1.0  -5.0   1.1  -0.6  -3.6

       Reality  Error                                                                                  
       -------  -------2.5----------------1-----3-----------1-----------1----3.5----2-------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          -7    13.2  14.0  14.4  11.5  20.5  12.0  13.0  16.5  14.3  14.6  14.0  10.0  15.1  12.2  16.2
          30    28.7  27.0  26.9  24.0  21.0  25.0  27.6  26.1  27.5  27.1  26.0  29.0  26.6  29.7  24.5
          17    16.3  18.0  16.9  15.5  21.5  16.0  15.6  19.5  18.0  15.3  16.0  11.0  16.1  15.3  16.8
         -11    11.5  13.0  12.7  15.5  11.0  15.5  13.4   3.5  11.5  13.1  10.0  12.0  13.2  12.5  14.3
           3     2.6   5.0   3.9   4.5   1.5   5.0   2.8   5.0   3.4   4.3   4.0   8.0   1.9   3.6   6.6

total           72.3  77.0  74.8  71.0  75.5  73.5  72.4  70.6  74.7  74.4  70.0  70.0  72.9  73.3  78.4
previous       608.4 569.0 590.1 606.0 677.0 593.0 609.5 655.0 151.2 571.3 650.0 658.0 595.2 603.2 617.0
cumulative     680.7 646.0 664.9 677.0 752.5 666.5 681.9 725.6 225.9 645.7 720.0 728.0 668.1 676.5 695.4
per game         9.7   9.2   9.5   9.7  10.8   9.5   9.7  10.4  11.3   9.2  10.3  10.4   9.5   9.7   9.9

Three road wins were projected for Round 14, and three occurred, though the third
one was not the expected West Virginia over TCU win that had been projected, but
rather Texas over Kansas State.  Two road wins are projected for Round 15, with
West Virginia at Texas, which is an interesting matchup, as the Mountaineers have
been dreadful on the road, while Texas has been dreadful at home.  Something's got
to give.  The other might be Texas Tech over Oklahoma; that was projected as a
home win for Oklahoma until the revised ratings came out.  The way Tech walloped
Iowa State boosted the Red Raiders' rating sufficiently to flip the outcome, or
maybe the loss of Halliburton finally caught up with the Cyclones.

Road wins (24 out of 70)                       Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
--------------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
7 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU UT  OU    1 Baylor         KU                    +6 Baylor        
7 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU TCU WVU BU    1 Kansas         BU                    +6 Kansas        
3 Texas          OSU TCU KSU                   1 Texas Tech     BU                    +2 Texas Tech    
3 Texas Tech     KSU UT  ISU                   1 West Virginia  KU                     0 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                            2 Oklahoma       KU  BU                -1 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma State KSU                           2 TCU            UT  KU                -1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                           3 Iowa State     KU  BU  TTU           -1 Texas         
1 West Virginia  OSU                           4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU        -3 Iowa State    
0 Iowa State                                   4 Texas          OU  KU  TTU BU        -3 Oklahoma State
0 Kansas State                                 5 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU  OSU UT    -5 Kansas State  

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.31    Baylor            7.23    
Baylor          +1.45    Kansas            8.92    
Texas Tech      +1.44    Kansas State      9.18    
West Virginia   +0.88    Oklahoma         10.06    
Oklahoma State  -0.22    West Virginia    10.89    
Oklahoma        -0.33    Texas            11.62    
TCU             -0.61    TCU              12.27    
Kansas State    -0.91    Iowa State       12.99    
Iowa State      -1.28    Texas Tech       13.31    
Texas           -2.06    Oklahoma State   14.63    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.51 +/- 0.32    Baylor          +0.23 +/- 0.13
Baylor          +0.19 +/- 0.19    Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma        +0.09 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma        +0.04 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.23    Kansas State    +0.02 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State  -0.04 +/- 0.37    Texas           -0.14 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.08 +/- 0.24    Iowa State      -0.15 +/- 0.21
Texas           -0.09 +/- 0.29    West Virginia   -0.26 +/- 0.28
West Virginia   -0.13 +/- 0.27    Kansas          -0.33 +/- 0.23
Iowa State      -0.38 +/- 0.32    Oklahoma State  -0.47 +/- 0.32
TCU             -0.40 +/- 0.32    TCU             -0.73 +/- 0.23

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          74.04   Baylor          58.73   Iowa State      146.22   Kansas          +13.15   
Texas Tech      73.22   Kansas          60.88   Oklahoma        139.19   Baylor          +11.81   
Iowa State      72.63   West Virginia   61.78   Texas Tech      136.67   Texas Tech       +9.78   
Oklahoma        70.59   Texas Tech      63.44   Kansas          134.92   West Virginia    +8.56   
Baylor          70.54   Texas           63.96   Oklahoma State  132.89   Oklahoma         +2.00   
West Virginia   70.33   TCU             65.00   West Virginia   132.11   Oklahoma State   +0.59   
Oklahoma State  66.74   Kansas State    65.22   Baylor          129.27   Texas            +0.15   
TCU             64.19   Oklahoma State  66.15   TCU             129.19   TCU              -0.81   
Texas           64.11   Oklahoma        68.59   Kansas State    129.11   Iowa State       -0.96   
Kansas State    63.89   Iowa State      73.59   Texas           128.07   Kansas State     -1.33   

Kansas is back on top, though Minnesota is lurking nearby at 82.17, though I expect that to
drop after they play #139 Northwestern today.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          82.29 ( 1)
Iowa State      81.99 ( 3)
Oklahoma        81.13 (10)
Oklahoma State  80.89 (13)
West Virginia   80.42 (21)
Kansas State    79.99 (26)
Baylor          79.67 (30)
Texas           79.48 (33)
TCU             78.99 (40) 
Texas Tech      78.42 (51)