predictions for Baylor game

How many ways can you look at it that makes it a big game?
#1 versus #3 in the AP poll and the Coaches poll.  #3 versus #1 in
the Sagarin Overall rating.  #1 versus #2 in the Sagarin Recent Games
rating.  #2 versus #1 in the Pomeroy ratings.  #1 versus #2 in the
Massey ratings.  #1 versus #2 in the Big 12 consistency ratings.
#1 versus #2 in the conference race.

And think about it:  this could be just the second of FOUR meetings
this season.  A third meeting in the Big 12 Tournament seems likely,
while a fourth meeting in the Final Four seems at least possible.

This is a National Championship calibre game, except for the fact
that it'll be played in Waco rather than on a neutral court.

The first meeting in Lawrence featured the most below expectation
performance of the season by Kansas and the most above expectation
performance of the season by Baylor.  I do not expect a repeat of
that.  The tables are turned in the sense that Dotson is healthier
now than he was for the first game (he suffered that hip pointer
in the first game), while Teague is apparently not as healthy for
this game as he was for the first game (bad wrist).  Garrett has
emerged as more of a scoring threat, which might help to open things
up for Azubuike on the inside.  And with De Sousa sidelined, we can
be sure that Self won't be experimenting with a two-big line-up.  The
Jayhawks will be playing four guards, and now have a fair bit of
experience with that line-up.  Plus Self has had ample time to devise
ways of dealing with Baylor's defense.

Baylor has played their last 11 games within 10 points of expectation,
while the last 3 in a row have been above expectation.  Kansas has
played their last 11 games within 8 points of expectation, while the
last 4 in a row have been above expectation.  We've got two teams
entering this game on a roll, playing extremely consistently.

Most of the prognostications favor Baylor, on the basis of the Bears
being the home team, because most of the predicted margins are less
than the usual home court advantage.  Sagarin Predictor, Dolphin
Predictive, and Dunkel are the three exceptions, but only Dunkel is
favoring Kansas by more than a half point, suggesting that overtime
is possible.  Don Davis' DPPI is the most pessimistic, favoring Baylor
by 6.7 points.  The average favors Baylor by just 1.8 points, making
it a one-possession game.  In Dunkel's highlight, he points out that
Kansas is 7-0 against the spread in its last seven road games, while
Baylor is only 2-11 against the spread in its last 13 home games versus
Kansas.  Interesting, but not very relevant considering that those last
13 home games versus Kansas were between two different teams than the
ones playing today.

Baylor has positive trend and mental toughness statistics, and they
are both significant.  They're worth almost 6 points for the Bears.
Kansas still has a negative trend, though it is not significant, as
well as a negative mental toughness rating that does have some
significance.  They cost the Jayhawks a bit over 2 points.

Most of the ratings suggest that Kansas is the better team on a
neutral court, but that home game loss sticks out as the worst
performance by Kansas this season.  A 2 point loss to Duke on a
neutral court and a 1 point loss to Villanova on the road are the
only other two blemishes.  The Jayhawks are just a couple of buckets
away from a 25-1 record against the toughest schedule in all of
Division I.

Pomeroy has Kansas and Baylor as the #2 and #3 defensive teams,
respectively (#1 is currently fellow conference member West Virginia,
because Kansas allowed Oklahoma and Iowa State to score a combined
178 points in the last two games).  Expect this game to be another
one of those grind it out, low-scoring defensive games.  Most of the
prognostications have each team scoring in the low 60s.

I think it'll come down to a matter of poise.  The six players who
average more than 15 minutes per game for Baylor consist of two
seniors, two juniors, and two sophomores.  The seven players who
average more than 15 minutes per game for Kansas consist of two
seniors, one junior, three sophomores, and one freshman.  That might
give Baylor a slight edge in experience to keep them from getting
rattled.  A lot may depend on whether Teague is good to go or not.
Replacing him with a less experienced player could tip the balance
in favor of Kansas.

I would have been able to post this summary three hours before
tip-off, except that Dunkel is back to that stupid practice of
posting game predictions in reverse chronological order.  So if you
want to bet on Fresno State at Nevada, which doesn't tip for over
12 hours, you're good to go with Dunkel right now.  But if you want
to bet on Kansas at Baylor, which tips in less than 3 hours, you're
still waiting on Dunkel.  Given how he's bringing up the rear in
game predictions for the season, I have half a mind to drop his
predictions from my summaries so that I don't have to wait, wait,
wait.

I still hate early tips, but this game will be worth it, regardless
of the tip time.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     BU      KU       Defensive Stats     BU      KU
Points/Game         71.2    74.8     Opp Points/Game     58.2    60.6
Avg Score Margin   +13.0   +14.2     Opp Effective FG %  43.5    43.3
Assists/Game        13.8    14.2     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.2     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.8    39.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.7    27.0
Effective FG %      49.6    54.3     Blocks/Game          4.5     5.1
Off Rebound %       35.0    30.0     Steals/Game          7.9     7.9
FTA/FGA            0.306   0.354     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.5    14.4
Turnover %          15.0    16.2

Kansas leads in ten of the fifteen categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Villanova plus the eight conference
members, one of which Baylor has played twice (Oklahoma State), one
of which Kansas has played twice (West Virginia), and three of which
both have played twice (Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma), in which case
only the home-home and away-away permutations will be used, plus the
head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us fifteen scores to compare:

KU   -1 Vil on road ( +3 neutral)
BU   +9 Vil neutral ( +9 neutral)
KU  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral)

KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)
BU  +15 UT  at home (+11 neutral)     BU   +7 UT  on road (+11 neutral)
KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral)     KU   -2 BU  on road ( -2 neutral)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
BU   +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral)
KU  -14 BU  on road (-10 neutral)

KU  +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)     KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
BU  +13 ISU at home ( +9 neutral)     BU  +14 ISU on road (+18 neutral)
KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)     KU   +8 BU  on road (+12 neutral)

KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)     KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
BU   +7 OSU on road (+11 neutral)     BU   +8 OSU at home ( +4 neutral)
KU   +4 BU  on road ( +8 neutral)     KU  +11 BU  on road (+15 neutral)

KU  +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)     KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)
BU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral)     BU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral)
KU   +9 BU  on road (+13 neutral)     KU   -1 BU  on road ( +3 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
BU  +16 TCU at home (+12 neutral)
KU   +2 BU  on road ( +6 neutral)

KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
BU   +6 KSU on road (+10 neutral)
KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU   +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)
BU  +11 WVU at home ( +7 neutral)     BU  +11 WVU at home ( +7 neutral)
KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral)     KU   +2 BU  on road ( +6 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)
KU  -20 BU  on road (-16 neutral)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, while seven favor Baylor.  However,
the average favors Baylor by 1.4 points, with a scatter of 8.9 points.
Take away that head-to-head score, and it's effectively a wash.  Also take
away the Villanova score and Kansas would have a slight 0.7 point edge,
meaning that Kansas has played the rest of the conference just a hair
better than Baylor has.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       MaCio Teague (guard)
most points        Jared Butler (guard)
most rebounds      Freddie Gillespie (forward)
most assists       Davion Mitchell (guard)
most steals        Mark Vital (guard)
most blocks        Freddie Gillespie (forward)
most turnovers     Jared Butler (guard)
most fouls         Davion Mithcell (guard)

Teague didn't play the last two games due to a wrist injury.  Wouldn't be
surprised if Baylor keeps it a secret as to whether he'll be able to play
or not.  Forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua has been sitting out the entire
season for eligibility reasons.

                                                          23-3           24-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -1.53   61   62       44       #  1   #  2    #  3   # 37 
Sagarin Predictor       +0.42   62   61       52.0     #  2   #  2    #  5   # 37 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -1.70   61   62                #  1   #  2    #  4   # 37 
Sagarin Recent Games    -5.87   59   64                #  3   #  2    #  1   # 37 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -0.52   61   62       48  
Massey                  -2.00   63   65       43       #  2   #  1    #  1   # 19
Pomeroy                 -0.92   60   61                #  1   #  2    #  2   # 33
Greenfield              -1.50   63   64                #  1   #  1    #  5   #  9
Dunkel                  +1.50   62   61                #  4           #  3                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.00   63   65                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +0.16   64   64       50.6     #  1   #  1    #  4   # 11
Real Time               -5.00   63   68       41.1     #  1   #  1    #  2   # 78 
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   66   67       40       #  1   #  3    #  3   # 32
DPPI                    -6.70   61   68                #  1   #  1    #  4   # 54
ESPN BPI                -1.30                 45.0     #  2   #  7    #  5   # 33
Whitlock                -0.43                          #  1   #  3    #  3   # 40
Colley Matrix           -2.01                          #  1   #  1    #  2   # 51
NCAA NET                                               #  4           #  2
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    #  5   # 51
common opponents        -1.40                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -1.77   62.1 63.9
scatter                  2.12    1.8  2.5  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 27-4.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be
today's road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -0.76    -1.24
HOME   # 74 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.72    -4.72
HOME   #210 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.66   +27.34
HOME   # 66 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.76    -3.76
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 29 BYU                         71  56    +8.27    +6.73
NEUT   # 21 Dayton                      90  84    +7.04    -1.04
HOME   # 27 Colorado                    72  58   +11.23    +2.77
HOME   #250 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.83    -2.83
NEUT   #224 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.33   +15.67
AWAY   # 18 Villanova                   55  56    +3.60    -4.60
AWAY   # 62 Stanford                    72  56    +9.18    +6.82
HOME   #  6 West Virginia               60  53    +7.73    -0.73
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                  79  53    +8.21   +17.79
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +6.84   -18.84
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma                    66  52    +6.72    +7.28
AWAY   # 54 Texas                       66  57    +8.19    +0.81
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                81  60   +17.29    +3.71
HOME   # 44 Tennessee                   74  68   +13.22    -7.22
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma State              65  50    +9.20    +5.80
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                  78  75   +10.09    -7.09
HOME   # 54 Texas                       69  58   +14.61    -3.61
AWAY   # 76 TCU                         60  46   +10.75    +3.25
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia               58  49    +1.31    +7.69
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma                    87  70   +13.14    +3.86
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                  91  71   +14.63    +5.37
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                +0.42             0.520
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma State                       +15.62             0.900
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                         +10.87             0.881
HOME   # 76 TCU                                  +17.17             0.944
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                            +3.67             0.632

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #295 Central Arkansas           105  61   +29.15   +14.85
NEUT   # 67 Washington                  64  67    +9.18   -12.18
HOME   #118 Texas State                 72  63   +17.12    -8.12
NEUT   #191 Ohio                        76  53   +19.17    +3.83
AWAY   #181 Coastal Carolina            77  65   +15.25    -3.25
NEUT   # 18 Villanova                   87  78    +3.18    +5.82
HOME   #349 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     78  46   +38.95    -6.95
HOME   #  8 Arizona                     63  58    +4.50    +0.50
HOME   # 34 Butler                      53  52    +8.58    -7.58
NEUT   #313 Tennessee-Martin            91  63   +27.27    +0.73
HOME   #319 Jackson State               83  57   +30.84    -4.84
HOME   # 54 Texas                       59  44   +10.98    +4.02
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  57  52    +0.04    +4.96
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                      67  55    -6.84   +18.84
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                  68  55   +11.00    +2.00
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma State              75  68    +5.57    +1.43
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma                    61  57    +9.51    -5.51
AWAY   # 30 Florida                     72  61    +1.52    +9.48
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                  67  53    +4.58    +9.42
HOME   # 76 TCU                         68  52   +13.54    +2.46
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                73  67    +7.24    -1.24
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma State              78  70   +11.99    -3.99
AWAY   # 54 Texas                       52  45    +4.56    +2.44
HOME   #  6 West Virginia               70  59    +4.10    +6.90
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma                    65  54    +3.09    +7.91
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -0.42             0.480
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                         +13.66             0.949
AWAY   # 76 TCU                                   +7.12             0.759
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                            +6.46             0.737
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia                         -2.32             0.400