projected Big 12 standings, Round 13

Texas' home win over TCU enabled the Longhorns to recapture sixth place from the Horned Frogs,
who also slipped a hair behind fellow loser Iowa State.  No other changes in the projected
standings.  Round 14 looks to be very interesting, with four of the games predicted to have
margins of about 1 point.  Kansas is slightly favored over Baylor, and the probability of
winning is 52 percent.  If Kansas wins the game, the Jayhawks will pick up 0.48 of a projected
win to get to 16.35 wins, while Baylor would drop to 15.84 wins, still a projected tie for the
conference crown.  If Baylor wins the game, the Jayhawks would drop 0.52 of a projected win to
get to 15.35 wins, while Baylor would pick up that amount to get to 16.84 wins, for a 1.5 win
margin with only 4 games to play (which would grow closer to a 2 win margin after the revised
ratings come out), making it a daunting task for the Jayhawks to get a share of the conference
crown.

                      Init.  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Baylor          10.99  14.77  15.00  15.13  15.46  15.87  16.32   13  0   KU  (Sa)   
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.89  14.97  15.20  15.67  15.75  15.87   12  1  @BU  (Sa)   KU  by  0.4
# 19  Texas Tech       9.33   9.88  10.11  10.63  11.01  10.35  10.42    8  5  @ISU (Sa)   TTU by  1.3
#  6  West Virginia   10.73  11.56  11.76  11.03  10.51  10.14  10.36    7  6  @TCU (Sa)   WVU by  6.2
# 44  Oklahoma         7.19   7.97   7.61   8.37   8.86   8.74   8.38    6  7  @OSU (Sa)   
# 55  Texas            7.25   7.95   8.05   7.54   7.14   6.61   7.06    5  8  @KSU (Sa)   
# 53  Iowa State       8.35   6.24   6.04   6.40   5.96   6.49   6.43    4  9   TTU (Sa)   
# 78  TCU              7.46   7.33   6.82   6.60   6.34   6.79   6.38    5  8   WVU (Sa)   
# 61  Oklahoma State   8.95   3.93   4.47   4.31   4.87   5.50   5.23    3 10   OU  (Sa)   OSU by  0.8
# 81  Kansas State     5.30   5.48   5.17   4.79   4.18   3.76   3.55    2 11   UT  (Sa)   KSU by  0.5

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 13.  Massey retains the season lead
by a hair over ESPN's BPI.  RealTimeRPI came in with the worst predictions, while Dunkel remains
the bottom feeder for the season (Whitlock is ineligible for season honors, or dishonors, as the
case may be).  These are the Big 12 Prognosticators, where the champion is crowned in
uncompromising fashion, the competition is unparalleled, and excitement is unleashed (a little
shoulder wiggle in there).

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over ISU    14.5  19.0  17.0  16.0  18.5  15.5  15.5  26.1  18.0  19.0  16.0  30.0  17.8  15.5  17.7
TTU over KSU    10.7  13.0  11.8  11.5   8.0  12.0  10.5  14.2  12.1  14.3   9.0  21.0  12.5  11.7  14.7
WVU over OSU    10.5  12.0  11.8  10.0  13.5  10.5  10.2  13.9  12.5  14.3  13.0  17.0  11.5  11.5  13.6
UT  over TCU     4.9   5.0   3.7   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.7   5.6   4.3   5.4   5.0   7.0   3.4   5.9   3.3
BU  over OU      2.8   6.0   4.4   3.0   7.0   3.5   2.8   9.4   4.9   4.7  11.0  -3.0   4.2   1.8   2.6

       Reality  Error                                                                                  
       -------  -------2.5----------------1-----3-----------1-----------1-----3----1.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          20     5.5   1.0   3.0   4.0   1.5   4.5   4.5   6.1   2.0   1.0   4.0  10.0   2.2   4.5   2.3
           7     3.7   6.0   4.8   4.5   1.0   5.0   3.5   7.2   5.1   7.3   2.0  14.0   5.5   4.7   7.7
          18     7.5   6.0   6.2   8.0   4.5   7.5   7.8   4.1   5.5   3.7   5.0   1.0   6.5   6.5   4.4
          14     9.1   9.0  10.3  12.0  14.0  14.0  10.3   8.4   9.7   8.6   9.0   7.0  10.6   8.1  10.7
          11     8.2   5.0   6.6   8.0   4.0   7.5   8.2   1.6   6.1   6.3   0.0  14.0   6.8   9.2   8.4

total           34.0  27.0  30.9  36.5  25.0  38.5  34.3  27.4  28.4  26.9  20.0  46.0  31.6  33.0  33.5
previous       574.4 542.0 559.2 569.5 652.0 554.5 575.2 627.6 122.8 544.4 630.0 612.0 563.6 570.2 583.5
cumulative     608.4 569.0 590.1 606.0 677.0 593.0 609.5 655.0 151.2 571.3 650.0 658.0 595.2 603.2 617.0
per game         9.4   8.8   9.1   9.3  10.4   9.1   9.4  10.1  10.1   8.8  10.0  10.1   9.2   9.3   9.5

Only one road win was projected for Round 13, and it happened as projected.  Three
road wins are projected for Round 14, though Kansas at Baylor is technically a
toss-up, as is Texas Tech at Iowa State.

Road wins (21 out of 65)                       Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
--------------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
7 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU UT  OU    0 Baylor                              +7 Baylor        
6 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU TCU WVU       1 Kansas         BU                   +5 Kansas        
2 Texas          OSU TCU                       2 Oklahoma       KU  BU               +1 Texas Tech    
2 Texas Tech     KSU UT                        1 Texas Tech     BU                    0 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                            1 West Virginia  KU                   -1 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma State KSU                           2 Iowa State     KU  BU               -1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                           2 TCU            UT  KU               -2 Texas         
1 West Virginia  OSU                           4 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU  OSU      -2 Iowa State    
0 Iowa State                                   4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU       -3 Oklahoma State
0 Kansas State                                 4 Texas          OU  KU  TTU BU       -4 Kansas State  

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.39    Baylor            7.39    
Baylor          +1.68    Kansas            9.19    
West Virginia   +1.10    Kansas State      9.25    
Texas Tech      +0.94    Oklahoma          9.86    
Oklahoma State  +0.14    West Virginia    10.66    
Oklahoma        -0.05    Texas            11.34    
TCU             -0.74    Iowa State       12.11    
Kansas State    -0.76    TCU              12.25    
Iowa State      -1.17    Texas Tech       12.40    
Texas           -2.42    Oklahoma State   14.61    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.32 +/- 0.32    Baylor          +0.26 +/- 0.13
Baylor          +0.26 +/- 0.20    Oklahoma        +0.08 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        +0.24 +/- 0.26    Texas Tech      +0.08 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    +0.08 +/- 0.25    Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.17
West Virginia   -0.03 +/- 0.28    Iowa State      -0.13 +/- 0.20
Kansas          -0.10 +/- 0.26    Texas           -0.18 +/- 0.23
Iowa State      -0.19 +/- 0.32    West Virginia   -0.27 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State  -0.20 +/- 0.39    Kansas          -0.37 +/- 0.25
Texas           -0.23 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma State  -0.46 +/- 0.32
TCU             -0.59 +/- 0.32    TCU             -0.80 +/- 0.23

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          74.36   Baylor          58.44   Iowa State      146.31   Kansas          +13.40   
Iowa State      73.31   Kansas          60.96   Oklahoma        138.81   Baylor          +12.56   
Texas Tech      72.62   West Virginia   61.65   Texas Tech      136.38   West Virginia    +9.00   
Baylor          71.00   Texas Tech      63.77   Kansas          135.32   Texas Tech       +8.85   
Oklahoma        70.69   Texas           64.23   West Virginia   132.31   Oklahoma         +2.58   
West Virginia   70.65   Kansas State    64.96   Oklahoma State  132.27   Iowa State       +0.31   
Oklahoma State  66.19   TCU             65.12   Baylor          129.44   Oklahoma State   +0.12   
TCU             64.16   Oklahoma State  66.08   TCU             129.28   Texas            -0.42   
Kansas State    64.15   Oklahoma        68.12   Kansas State    129.12   Kansas State     -0.81   
Texas           63.81   Iowa State      73.00   Texas           128.04   TCU              -0.96   

Playing at Waco on Saturday should get Kansas back on top of the Strength of Schedule
rankings.  Minnesota is currently at 82.10 and will play at #135 Northwestern on
Sunday, so if Kansas doesn't rise by enough to retake the lead after Saturday's game,
Minnesota should drop by enough after Sunday's game to give Kansas the top spot.

Schedule Strength 
-------------------------- 
Kansas          81.92 ( 2) 
Iowa State      81.53 ( 4)
Oklahoma State  81.09 ( 9) 
Oklahoma        81.05 (11) 
West Virginia   80.25 (21) 
Kansas State    79.57 (29) 
Texas           79.43 (31) 
Baylor          79.05 (36) 
TCU             78.66 (45) 
Texas Tech      78.06 (54)