Pretty Much everything is riding on Saturday's game

If KU wins, they still have work to do but have the inside track for winning at least a share of the Big 12. Same for Baylor. But if Baylor wins it is essentially all over. Here are the probabilities for winning the Big 12 given the possible outcomes of Saturday;s game.



If you would like to see all the charts and tables for the Big 12 race plus the latest DPPI they are here. Duke's loss to NC State last night dropped them to 3rd just ever so barely ahead of Baylor in 4th. Gonzaga is now in 2nd and Kansas is in a dominant 1st place. Unfortunately, I have the Jayhawks as a 6.7 point underdog with only a 19.6% probability of winning against Baylor.

Big 12 Tables
Big 12 Charts
DPPI

The good news is, based on the DPPI, Kansas is the slight favorite to win the National Championship with a 21.2% probability. We have just under a 50% probability of making the Final Four and a 35% probability of going to the NC game.

See all the probabilities here NCAA Probs

Wow, with that probability of making the Final Four, guess I'd better start trying to find a room in Atlanta. They have already tripled the prices for the FF.

To me what's really interesting is that with 5 games to play, all but 3 teams are mathematically eliminated. Texas Tech is 5 back with 5 to play, so their only chance is if they win and we win. I haven't researched it, but I can't remember this many teams being eliminated completely this early.

No stats are really needed to support your subject line, Corpus!