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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
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4 years 9 months ago #24857
by asteroid
I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS!
Sagarin Predictor has Kansas favored by 12.77 points. Only once this
season has Oklahoma played more than 12.77 points above expectation,
but it was their most recent outing against Iowa State. The immediately
preceding outing against West Virginia came close, as did their home
game with TCU. And of course Kansas has played below expectation by
more than 12.77 points just once, that infamous Baylor home game. So
we have two examples out of 47, suggesting that Kansas has a 96 percent
probability of winning the game.
Kansas still has a negative trend, though it is not statistically
significant. The negative mental toughness rating has some significance
to it, but it helps Kansas by a couple points against a weaker opponent.
The last two games have given Oklahoma a positive trend of some
significance, which benefits them by about 6 points.
The various predictions average 13.8 points. The most optimistic is
RealTimeRPI at 17 points, but he uses a larger than average home court
advantage. The pessimist is Greenfield, who has Kansas by only 10.5
points.
Enough chit-chat. Let's see if can grab a nap before the game.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 71.7 73.5 Opp Points/Game 67.2 59.7
Avg Score Margin +4.5 +13.8 Opp Effective FG % 46.7 43.0
Assists/Game 12.2 14.0 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.1 8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.7 38.7 Def Rebounds/Gm 26.6 26.9
Effective FG % 49.1 53.6 Blocks/Game 3.8 5.1
Off Rebound % 21.4 29.6 Steals/Game 6.2 8.0
FTA/FGA 0.304 0.364 Personal Fouls/Gm 13.1 14.6
Turnover % 13.8 16.4
Kansas leads in thirteen of the fifteen categories.
Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Stanford plus the eight conference
members, two of which Oklahoma has played twice (Kansas State, Iowa State)
and two of which Kansas has played twice (Texas, West Virginia) plus
the head-to-head in Norman, giving us fourteen scores to compare:
KU +16 Sta on road (+20 neutral)
OU -19 Sta neutral (-19 neutral)
KU +43 OU at home (+39 neutral)
KU +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral) KU +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
OU +5 KSU at home ( +1 neutral) OU -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral)
KU +20 OU at home (+16 neutral) KU +25 OU at home (+21 neutral)
KU +9 UT on road (+13 neutral) KU +11 UT at home ( +7 neutral)
OU +10 UT on road (+14 neutral) OU +10 UT on road (+14 neutral)
KU +3 OU at home ( -1 neutral) KU -3 OU at home ( -7 neutral)
KU +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral) KU +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
OU -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral) OU +29 ISU at home (+25 neutral)
KU +43 OU at home (+39 neutral) KU +9 OU at home ( +5 neutral)
KU +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
OU +20 TCU at home (+16 neutral)
KU +6 OU at home ( +2 neutral)
KU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral)
OU -4 BU on road ( 0 neutral)
KU -12 OU at home (-16 neutral)
KU +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
OU +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral)
KU +14 OU at home (+10 neutral)
KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
OU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral)
KU +7 OU at home ( +3 neutral)
KU +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral) KU +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)
OU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral) OU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral)
KU +1 OU at home ( -3 neutral) KU +11 OU at home ( +7 neutral)
KU +14 OU on road (+18 neutral)
KU +22 OU at home (+18 neutral)
Only two of the comparisons favor Oklahoma, while twelve favor Kansas, some
by considerable margins. As usual, the Baylor comparison is the most favorable
for Oklahoma. The average is 13.5 points, with a scatter of 15.9 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Austin Reaves (guard)
most points Brady Manek (forward)
most rebounds Kristian Doolittle (forward)
most assists Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most steals Kristian Doolittle (forward)
most blocks Kur Kuath (forward)
most turnovers Austin Reaves (guard)
most fouls Austin Reaves (guard)
21-3 16-8
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +12.46 71 59 85 # 1 # 1 # 34 # 22
Sagarin Predictor +12.77 72 59 90.3 # 2 # 1 # 42 # 22
Sagarin Golden Mean +12.49 71 59 # 2 # 1 # 35 # 22
Sagarin Recent Games +12.14 71 59 # 3 # 1 # 30 # 22
Sagarin Eigenvector +15.41 73 57 89
Massey +14.00 74 60 90 # 2 # 1 # 31 # 16
Pomeroy +13.69 72 58 # 1 # 1 # 36 # 15
Greenfield +10.50 74 63 # 1 # 1 # 38 # 22
Dunkel +14.00 75 61 # 3 # 49
Vegas (via Dunkel) +11.00 74 63
Dolphin Predictive +13.11 75 62 88.0 # 1 # 1 # 36 # 21
Real Time +17.00 76 59 78.0 # 1 # 1 # 45 # 46
Seven Overtimes +14.00 75 61 85 # 1 # 4 #115 # 25
DPPI +14.70 75 60.5 94.3 # 1 # 1 # 36 # 15
ESPN BPI +16.00 92.2 # 3 # 3 # 51 # 24
Whitlock +14.27 # 1 # 5 # 42 # 14
Colley Matrix +16.58 # 1 # 1 # 38 # 24
NCAA NET # 4 # 45
LRMC # 2 # 1 # 34 # 16
common opponents +13.50
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +13.8 73.4 60.0
scatter 1.8 1.7 1.8
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is up to 27-4.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses. Toughest game would be
the road game with Baylor.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Duke 66 68 -0.90 -1.10
HOME # 74 NC Greensboro 74 62 +16.54 -4.54
HOME #208 Monmouth-NJ 112 57 +27.58 +27.42
HOME # 63 East Tennessee State(ETS 75 63 +15.49 -3.49
Div2 Chaminade 93 63
NEUT # 26 BYU 71 56 +7.76 +7.24
NEUT # 20 Dayton 90 84 +6.92 -0.92
HOME # 30 Colorado 72 58 +11.50 +2.50
HOME #249 Milwaukee 95 68 +29.65 -2.65
NEUT #234 Kansas City(UMKC) 98 57 +25.81 +15.19
AWAY # 22 Villanova 55 56 +4.12 -5.12
AWAY # 65 Stanford 72 56 +9.32 +6.68
HOME # 7 West Virginia 60 53 +7.68 -0.68
AWAY # 58 Iowa State 79 53 +8.63 +17.37
HOME # 5 Baylor 55 67 +7.23 -19.23
AWAY # 42 Oklahoma 66 52 +6.37 +7.63
AWAY # 54 Texas 66 57 +7.95 +1.05
HOME # 76 Kansas State 81 60 +16.88 +4.12
HOME # 37 Tennessee 74 68 +12.55 -6.55
AWAY # 62 Oklahoma State 65 50 +8.92 +6.08
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 78 75 +9.13 -6.13
HOME # 54 Texas 69 58 +14.35 -3.35
AWAY # 83 TCU 60 46 +10.70 +3.30
AWAY # 7 West Virginia 58 49 +1.28 +7.72
HOME # 42 Oklahoma +12.77 0.903
HOME # 58 Iowa State +15.03 0.926
AWAY # 5 Baylor +0.83 0.539
HOME # 62 Oklahoma State +15.32 0.888
AWAY # 76 Kansas State +10.48 0.866
HOME # 83 TCU +17.10 0.938
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech +2.73 0.595
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #182 UTSA 85 67 +15.81 +2.19
NEUT # 31 Minnesota 71 62 -1.10 +10.10
AWAY # 72 Oregon State 77 69 +0.49 +7.51
HOME #196 William & Mary 75 70 +17.01 -12.01
HOME #349 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES) 91 64 +33.44 -6.44
NEUT # 65 Stanford 54 73 +2.95 -21.95
NEUT # 88 Missouri 77 66 +5.03 +5.97
AWAY # 97 North Texas 82 80 +3.17 -1.17
AWAY # 41 Wichita State 75 80 -3.22 -1.78
AWAY # 32 Creighton 73 83 -4.28 -5.72
HOME #121 Central Florida(UCF) 53 52 +11.53 -10.53
HOME #240 UTRGV 91 72 +19.71 -0.71
HOME # 76 Kansas State 66 61 +7.31 -2.31
AWAY # 54 Texas 72 62 -1.62 +11.62
AWAY # 58 Iowa State 68 81 -0.94 -12.06
HOME # 2 Kansas 52 66 -6.37 -7.63
HOME # 83 TCU 83 63 +7.53 +12.47
AWAY # 5 Baylor 57 61 -8.74 +4.74
HOME # 47 Mississippi State 63 62 +3.65 -2.65
AWAY # 76 Kansas State 53 61 +0.91 -8.91
HOME # 62 Oklahoma State 82 69 +5.75 +7.25
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 61 69 -6.84 -1.16
HOME # 7 West Virginia 69 59 -1.89 +11.89
HOME # 58 Iowa State 90 61 +5.46 +23.54
AWAY # 2 Kansas -12.77 0.097
HOME # 5 Baylor -2.34 0.396
AWAY # 62 Oklahoma State -0.65 0.480
HOME # 13 Texas Tech -0.44 0.485
AWAY # 7 West Virginia -8.29 0.215
HOME # 54 Texas +4.78 0.678
AWAY # 83 TCU +1.13 0.539
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, KMT, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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