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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for TCU game
- asteroid
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4 years 9 months ago #24783
by asteroid
All together now: I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS!!!
I'll prepare as much of this summary as I can the day before, and
fill in the missing details shortly before the game.
Especially annoying was that Dunkel had the predictions for Baylor's
late game up last night, while I had to wait until this morning for
the Kansas early game predictions. Silly me for thinking that
Dunkel had decided to post predictions chronologically from earliest
to latest. Instead, he just started earlier this time, leaving
more than just 10 minutes, as he did for the Villanova game, but
posted the latest games first.
Sagarin Predictor gives Kansas a 9.4 point margin in today's game
against TCU. Five times this season, the Horned Frogs played more
than 9.4 points above expectation, though only two of those were
conference games, and one just barely exceeds 9.4 points. Meanwhile,
Kansas has played more than 9.4 points below expectation only once,
that infamous Baylor home game. Although Kansas and TCU have played
a combined 44 games, each has one non-Division I opponent, for which
we have no above/below expectation value, so we're looking at six
chances out of 42 for Kansas to lose the game, corresponding to a
14 percent probability of losing. TCU has played four consecutive
below expectation games and six out of seven, while Kansas has played
two consecutive below expectation games and three out of four.
The average of the various prognostications is 9.9 points. Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis is the most optimistic at 14.0 points, followed
closely by Colley at 13.5 points, then Sagarin Recent Games at 12.8
points, then common opponents at 12.7 points. The most pessimistic
is Dunkel at just 4 points, then RealTimeRPI at 7 points (recall that
RealTime uses a large home court advantage), then Greenfield at 7.5
points. Greenfield was at 8.5 points last night. Don't know why
that changed, unless Greenfield tracks the wagering.
Both teams have negative trends, but the significance is only marginal.
Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings, with TCU's being
quite significant. Those ratings hurt Kansas by only about 1.4 points,
while they hurt TCU by about 4.9 points, so the Jayhawks gain about
3.5 points from those stats.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats TCU KU Defensive Stats TCU KU
Points/Game 67.0 74.9 Opp Points/Game 63.8 60.9
Avg Score Margin +3.2 +14.0 Opp Effective FG % 48.8 43.5
Assists/Game 15.0 14.2 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.2 9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.0 39.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.5 27.0
Effective FG % 49.9 54.2 Blocks/Game 4.5 5.1
Off Rebound % 31.2 30.3 Steals/Game 7.3 7.7
FTA/FGA 0.268 0.367 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.5 14.7
Turnover % 17.9 16.1
Kansas leads in twelve of the categories. TCU has a slight edge in
assists per game, offensive rebound percentage, and offensive rebounds
per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in the conference, one of which
Kansas has played twice (Texas) and one of which TCU has played twice
(Oklahoma State), giving us ten scores to compare:
KU +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
TCU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral)
KU +28 TCU on road (+32 neutral)
KU +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
TCU +2 KSU on road ( +6 neutral)
KU +7 TCU on road (+11 neutral)
KU +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral) KU +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
TCU +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral) TCU -15 OSU on road (-11 neutral)
KU +7 TCU on road (+11 neutral) KU +26 TCU on road (+30 neutral)
KU +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
TCU -32 WVU on road (-28 neutral)
KU +27 TCU on road (+31 neutral)
KU +14 OU on road (+18 neutral)
TCU -20 OU on road (-16 neutral)
KU +30 TCU on road (+34 neutral)
KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
TCU +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral)
KU -12 TCU on road ( -8 neutral)
KU +9 UT on road (+13 neutral) KU +11 UT at home ( +7 neutral)
TCU -1 UT at home ( -5 neutral) TCU -1 UT at home ( -5 neutral)
KU +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral) KU +8 TCU on road (+12 neutral)
KU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral)
TCU -16 BU on road (-12 neutral)
KU -8 TCU on road ( -4 neutral)
Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor TCU (that damn
Baylor home game, worst performance of the season for Kansas, and Texas
Tech). The average, however, favors Kansas by 12.7 points, with a
scatter of 15.1 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Desmond Bane (guard)
most points Desmond Bane (guard)
most rebounds Kevin Samuel (center)
most assists Desmond Bane (guard)
most steals Desmond Bane (guard)
most blocks Kevin Samuel (center)
most turnovers R. J. Nembhard (guard)
most fouls Jaedon Ledee (forward)
Forward Mickey Pearson Jr. is redshirting.
The key would seem to be controlling Bane. Expect Garrett to be defending him most
of the time.
19-3 13-9
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas TCU
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +10.63 68 57 82 # 1 # 1 # 79 # 51
Sagarin Predictor +9.36 67 58 82.1 # 2 # 1 # 67 # 51
Sagarin Golden Mean +9.22 67 58 # 2 # 1 # 66 # 51
Sagarin Recent Games +12.82 69 56 # 2 # 1 #110 # 51
Sagarin Eigenvector +13.95 69 55 87
Massey +12.00 72 60 85 # 3 # 1 # 77 # 68
Pomeroy +9.58 66 57 # 1 # 1 # 78 # 51
Greenfield +7.50 69 61.5 # 2 # 1 # 70 # 70
Dunkel +4.00 68 64 # 3 # 51
Vegas (via Dunkel) +9.00 70 61
Dolphin Predictive +8.38 69 61 78.0 # 1 # 1 # 78 # 63
Real Time +7.00 74 67 63.3 # 1 # 1 # 91 # 57
Seven Overtimes +9.00 71 62 83 # 1 # 3 #101 # 23
DPPI +8.60 70 62 80 # 3 # 1 # 71 # 42
ESPN BPI +10.70 85.0 # 2 # 5 # 93 # 73
Colley Matrix +13.52 # 1 # 1 # 64 # 40
NCAA NET # 4 # 73
LRMC # 3 # 1 # 92 # 36
common opponents +12.70
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +9.9 69.2 60.0
scatter 2.6 2.1 3.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 26-5.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses. Toughest game would be the
road game with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Duke 66 68 -1.87 -0.13
HOME # 82 NC Greensboro 74 62 +17.13 -5.13
HOME #207 Monmouth-NJ 112 57 +27.16 +27.84
HOME # 59 East Tennessee State(ETS 75 63 +15.01 -3.01
Div2 Chaminade 93 63
NEUT # 28 BYU 71 56 +7.68 +7.32
NEUT # 18 Dayton 90 84 +6.41 -0.41
HOME # 29 Colorado 72 58 +11.14 +2.86
HOME #243 Milwaukee 95 68 +29.24 -2.24
NEUT #234 Kansas City(UMKC) 98 57 +25.47 +15.53
AWAY # 20 Villanova 55 56 +3.36 -4.36
AWAY # 62 Stanford 72 56 +8.73 +7.27
HOME # 5 West Virginia 60 53 +6.81 +0.19
AWAY # 56 Iowa State 79 53 +7.78 +18.22
HOME # 6 Baylor 55 67 +6.82 -18.82
AWAY # 49 Oklahoma 66 52 +6.97 +7.03
AWAY # 51 Texas 66 57 +7.13 +1.87
HOME # 68 Kansas State 81 60 +16.00 +5.00
HOME # 41 Tennessee 74 68 +12.29 -6.29
AWAY # 61 Oklahoma State 65 50 +8.70 +6.30
HOME # 21 Texas Tech 78 75 +9.88 -6.88
HOME # 51 Texas 69 58 +13.53 -2.53
AWAY # 67 TCU +9.36 0.821
AWAY # 5 West Virginia +0.41 0.516
HOME # 49 Oklahoma +13.37 0.923
HOME # 56 Iowa State +14.18 0.917
AWAY # 6 Baylor +0.42 0.519
HOME # 61 Oklahoma State +15.10 0.876
AWAY # 68 Kansas State +9.60 0.836
HOME # 67 TCU +15.76 0.939
AWAY # 21 Texas Tech +3.48 0.629
Here is TCU's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
Div3 Southwestern 83 62
HOME #204 Louisiana 98 65 +14.48 +18.52
HOME #193 Air Force 65 54 +13.54 -2.54
HOME #105 UC Irvine 59 58 +7.04 -6.04
NEUT # 71 Clemson 60 62 +0.47 -2.47
NEUT #269 Wyoming 64 47 +14.76 +2.24
HOME #208 Illinois State 81 69 +14.64 -2.64
HOME # 64 Southern California 78 80 +2.75 -4.75
HOME #114 Winthrop 70 60 +7.59 +2.41
HOME #259 Lamar 79 50 +17.35 +11.65
HOME # 48 Xavier-Ohio 59 67 +0.78 -8.78
HOME #176 George Mason 87 53 +11.95 +22.05
HOME # 56 Iowa State 81 79 +1.62 +0.38
AWAY # 68 Kansas State 59 57 -2.96 +4.96
HOME # 61 Oklahoma State 52 40 +2.54 +9.46
AWAY # 5 West Virginia 49 81 -12.15 -19.85
AWAY # 49 Oklahoma 63 83 -5.59 -14.41
HOME # 21 Texas Tech 65 54 -2.68 +13.68
AWAY # 35 Arkansas 67 78 -7.14 -3.86
HOME # 51 Texas 61 62 +0.97 -1.97
AWAY # 6 Baylor 52 68 -12.14 -3.86
AWAY # 61 Oklahoma State 57 72 -3.86 -11.14
HOME # 2 Kansas -9.36 0.179
AWAY # 21 Texas Tech -9.08 0.201
HOME # 68 Kansas State +3.44 0.633
AWAY # 51 Texas -5.43 0.306
HOME # 5 West Virginia -5.75 0.295
AWAY # 56 Iowa State -4.78 0.325
HOME # 6 Baylor -5.74 0.267
AWAY # 2 Kansas -15.76 0.061
HOME # 49 Oklahoma +0.81 0.533
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, Wheatstate Gal
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