predictions for Texas Tech game

Texas Tech played seven top-tier teams during its non-conference schedule and
beat six of them; only Utah tripped them up on a neutral court.  That makes the
Red Raiders better than UCLA or Oregon State.  The closest match to a team we've
already played is Baylor, at least in terms of Sagarin rating.  It's taken him
a couple of years, but Tubby Smith has engineered the turnaround in Texas Tech
basketball fortunes.  It just goes to show that sons of legendary coaches don't
always have great coaching in their genes.  Sorry, Bobby.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 7.5 point margin, with an 86.0 percent probability of
winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 148.5 points per game,
that suggests a final score of Kansas 78, Texas Tech 71, or less, considering
how the total points for Kansas have been skewed by a triple overtime affair.
Kansas has been playing 2.0 points above expectation, while Texas Tech has been
playing 1.1 points above expectation, which means that the margin could be 8.4
points.  Both teams have positive trends with some statistical significance;
Tech's is a bit stronger.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings.
Taken at face value, things are a wash.  The Red Raiders have been the Big 12's
most consistent team, having played all games within 10 points of expectation.
Twice out of thirteen games (one of them marginally) did they play by more than
7.5 points above expectation, corresponding to a 15 percent probability of
winning the game.  Kansas is the Big 12's second-most consistent team.  Twice
out of thirteen Division I games (one of them marginally) did Kansas play below
expectation by enough to lose today's game, corresponding to a 15 percent
probability of losing.  That's an average of 15 percent and consistent with the
Sagarin probability shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 5.0 point margin, with a 68 percent probability of winning
the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Texas Tech 73.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 10.7 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 3.0 units, which combine to a 13.7 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 72.0 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 9.9 points on a neutral court.  Subtract Sagarin's 3.4 point home court
advantage, and the margin becomes 6.5 points.  The ratings suggest a score of
Kansas 77, Texas Tech 71.  I'm a little surprised at how close this prediction is
to the Sagarin prediction, considering how Pomeroy's tempo calculation would
presumably explicitly compensate for triple overtime, thus providing a more
accurate total points.  Yet the difference is merely one point.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 7.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 78 to 71, in agreement with Sagarin.  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in six of eight categories; Texas Tech gets a higher
offensive rebound percentage and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.
Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of seven categories;
Texas Tech holds opponents to fewer points per game, holds opponents to a slightly
lower effective field goal percentage, and commits slightly fewer personal fouls per
game.  With Oklahoma having put up 106 points against the Jayhawks, it's no surprise
that Kansas allows opponents more points per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at 7.5
points, so he is picking Texas Tech against the spread.  With a total points projection
of 143, the implied final score is Kansas 73.5, Texas Tech 69.5 (you pick the roundings).
Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 150.5, which would imply a final score of
Kansas 79, Texas Tech 71.5 (you pick the rounding).  Judging from the tabulated win-loss
numbers, Dunkel's rankings are still way out-of-date; Duke is his #1 team!

Real Time gives Kansas just a 1.0 point margin, with a 53.2 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 82, Texas Tech 81.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 6.1 point margin with a 69.2 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 78, Texas Tech 72.

I thought just maybe Colley would finally rank Kansas ahead of Texas Tech just
in time for the two teams to play each other, but Colley hasn't updated his
rankings since Monday's big win over Oklahoma, so he still has Texas Tech as
the higher ranked team.  And at home.  If he did a game prediction, the Red
Raiders would be favored, and by about 5 points.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 11.6 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas an 8.4 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by just 5.0 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 4.1 points in favor of
Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and Kansas becomes a 0.7 point favorite.

LRMC has Kansas ranked well above Texas Tech, though both has adjacent strengths
of schedule.

Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog, corresponding to a 44 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 73 to 75.  Sort
of the odd man out here, but Tech is their #14 team and at home.  Oh well.  They're
also picking TCU over Texas by 2 points, given that TCU is at home.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin.

DPPI gives Kansas a 6.3 point margin.  I don't have the latest DPPI rankings.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Devaugntah Williams plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, and is their leading thief.  Forward Zach Smith is their leading
rebounder and shot blocker, but also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Keenan
Evans leads the Red Raiders in assists.  Center Norense Odiase commits the most
personal fouls, which may explain why he's fifth in minutes played.  Their other
center, Isaiah Manderson, is out indefinitely with a personal issue.

The average of the various prognostications is 5.3 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 77, Texas Tech 72.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   # 26   #  1   #  1   #  1   +2.0    8.1   +0.79 +/- 0.58   -0.10 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech     # 41   # 74   # 41   # 41   # 36   +1.1    5.6   +1.04 +/- 0.30   -0.19 +/- 0.17
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  # 10   #  1   # 53   #  1  #  3    # 14    #  1   # 26   # 10   # 46
Texas Tech     # 29  # 39   # 38   #117   # 54  # 67    # 70    # 33   # 18   #  6   # 14
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5   #  5   #  1   #  6   #  3   #  1   #  3   0.984   13-1     #  1  # 98
Texas Tech     # 26   # 26   # 34   # 16   #  6   # 14   # 27   0.480   11-2     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  9  # 58    #  2  # 38    #  7  # 82    #  6  # 19    #  1  #  7    #  1  #  1
Texas Tech     #  6  # 25    # 28  # 21    # 21  #  7    # 40  # 20    # 14  # 78    #  3  # 24

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #312 Northern Colorado          109  72   +36.85    +0.15
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              73  79    +1.57    -7.57
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 56 UCLA                        92  73   +13.06    +5.94
NEUT   # 15 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +4.54    +2.46
HOME   #272 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.86    +0.14
HOME   # 96 Harvard                     75  69   +19.78   -13.78
HOME   #241 Holy Cross                  92  59   +30.54    +2.46
HOME   # 58 Oregon State                82  67   +16.55    -1.55
HOME   #175 Montana                     88  46   +25.93   +16.07
AWAY   # 73 San Diego State             70  57   +11.03    +1.97
HOME   # 91 UC Irvine                   78  53   +19.21    +5.79
HOME   # 33 Baylor                     102  74   +12.77   +15.23
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                   109 106    +4.97    -1.97
AWAY   # 41 Texas Tech                            +7.51             0.860
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                         -1.56             0.434
HOME   #141 TCU                                  +22.97             0.995
AWAY   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +12.38             0.901
HOME   # 38 Texas                                +14.09             0.920
AWAY   # 25 Iowa State                            +4.01             0.680
HOME   # 28 Kentucky                             +11.60             0.886
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                         +14.94             0.965
AWAY   #141 TCU                                  +16.21             0.966
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         +5.20             0.711
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                              -1.79             0.415
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +19.14             0.977
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                          +8.18             0.839
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                                +6.01             0.723
HOME   # 41 Texas Tech                           +14.27             0.980
AWAY   # 38 Texas                                 +7.33             0.768
HOME   # 25 Iowa State                           +10.77             0.895

Here is Texas Tech's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #108 High Point                  77  73   +10.04    -6.04
NEUT   # 37 Utah                        63  73    -0.26    -9.74
NEUT   #109 Mississippi State           74  72    +6.74    -4.74
NEUT   #157 Minnesota                   81  68   +10.27    +2.73
HOME   # 65 Hawai'i                     82  74    +5.94    +2.06
HOME   #203 Sam Houston State           71  56   +17.48    -2.48
HOME   #234 Tennessee-Martin            68  49   +19.10    -0.10
HOME   # 84 South Dakota State          79  67    +7.55    +4.45
HOME   #345 Ark.-Pine Bluff             94  54   +30.92    +9.08
HOME   # 59 Little Rock                 65  53    +5.66    +6.34
HOME   # 81 Richmond                    85  70    +7.36    +7.64
HOME   # 38 Texas                       82  74    +3.20    +4.80
AWAY   # 25 Iowa State                  69  76    -6.88    -0.12
HOME   #  1 Kansas                                -7.51             0.140
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                          -2.71             0.353
HOME   # 33 Baylor                                +1.88             0.580
AWAY   #141 TCU                                   +5.32             0.750
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         -5.69             0.249
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                             -12.68             0.040
AWAY   # 54 Arkansas                              -1.31             0.440
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma State                        +8.25             0.828
AWAY   # 38 Texas                                 -3.56             0.349
HOME   # 25 Iowa State                            -0.12             0.494
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                                -4.88             0.299
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                              -5.92             0.207
AWAY   # 90 Oklahoma State                        +1.49             0.568
HOME   #141 TCU                                  +12.08             0.937
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -14.27             0.020
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                        -12.45             0.069
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                          +4.05             0.714