Big 12 projection, Round 2

Texas Tech lost on the road while Texas won at home, and that was enough to flip their places
in the projected standings.  Otherwise no changes.  Texas could solidify its hold on sixth place
by getting the projected road win at TCU on Saturday, while Texas Tech is projected to suffer a
home loss to Kansas.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01    2  0  @TT  (Sa)   KU  by  7.5   projected road win
#  5  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70    2  0   OSU (Sa)   WV  by 17.6
#  4  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57    1  1   KSU (Sa)   OU  by 13.3
# 24  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00    1  1   BU  (Sa)   ISU by  5.5
# 33  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71    1  1  @ISU (Sa)
# 35  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80    1  1  @TCU (Sa)   UT  by  5.4   projected road win
# 40  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57    1  1   KU  (Sa)
# 44  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52    0  2  @OU  (Sa)
# 93  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72    1  1  @WV  (Sa)
#139  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40    0  2   UT  (Sa)

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 2.  TCU losing by 21 points to the
conference's second weakest team saddled the Horned Frogs with a sharply negative trend,
which the trend analysis turned into a bad prediction for their game with West Virginia,
easily putting the trend analysis in last place.  Massey has taken the season lead.

Predictions                                                                              Reality  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  
        Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Real Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI           
UT >KSU  4.5  5.0  4.1  5.5  3.0  5.5  9.0  4.1  1.8  2.1 -3.0  5.5  4.9  6.8  4.6  4.2      3    
KU >OU   5.5  4.0  4.3  7.0  3.5  6.5 -1.0  6.4  2.2  1.0  6.0  4.3  5.8  7.6  7.7  8.4      3    
ISU>TT   7.1 10.0  7.8 11.0  3.5 10.0 11.0  5.9  5.3  5.0  1.0  7.7  6.5  8.3 -0.1 10.2      7    
BU >OSU  8.8  9.0  7.7  9.0  7.5  9.5 14.0  7.3  6.9  5.2  4.0  9.9  9.0 10.8 -1.1 10.1     17    
WV >TCU 15.3 10.0 10.8  9.5  7.5 10.0 17.0 15.1 13.3 12.1  6.0 13.4 18.8 17.0 22.4 15.1      8    

Error                         1                                                 1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Real Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI
         1.5  2.0  1.1  2.5  0.0  2.5  6.0  1.1  1.2  0.9  6.0  2.5  1.9  3.8  1.6  1.2
         2.5  1.0  1.3  4.0  0.5  3.5  4.0  3.4  0.8  2.0  3.0  1.3  2.8  4.6  4.7  5.4
         0.1  3.0  0.8  4.0  3.5  3.0  4.0  1.1  1.7  2.0  6.0  0.7  0.5  1.3  7.1  3.2
         8.2  8.0  9.3  8.0  9.5  7.5  3.0  9.7 10.1 11.8 13.0  7.1  8.0  6.2 18.1  6.9
         7.3  2.0  2.8  1.5  0.5  2.0  9.0  7.1  5.3  4.1  2.0  5.4 10.8  9.0 14.4  7.1

total   19.6 16.0 15.3 20.0 14.0 18.5 26.0 22.4 19.1 20.8 30.0 17.0 24.0 24.9 45.9 23.8
prev    46.3 40.0 43.4 40.5 49.5 41.0 49.0 44.8 39.7 37.7 43.0 44.7 48.6 43.2 28.1 38.4
cumul   65.9 56.0 58.7 60.5 63.5 59.5 75.0 67.2 58.8 58.5 73.0 61.7 72.6 68.1 74.0 62.2
per gm   6.6  5.6  5.9  6.1  6.3  5.9  7.5  6.7  5.9  5.8  7.3  6.2  7.3  6.8  7.4  6.2

Only one road win in Round 2, as projected.  Two road wins are projected for Round 3.

Road wins ( 2 out of 10)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
2 West Virginia   KSU TCU             0 Baylor                                 +2 West Virginia 
0 Baylor                              0 Iowa State                              0 Baylor        
0 Iowa State                          0 Kansas                                  0 Iowa State    
0 Kansas                              0 Oklahoma                                0 Kansas        
0 Kansas State                        0 Oklahoma State                          0 Oklahoma      
0 Oklahoma                            0 Texas                                   0 Oklahoma State
0 Oklahoma State                      0 Texas Tech                              0 Texas         
0 TCU                                 0 West Virginia                           0 Texas Tech    
0 Texas                               1 Kansas State    WV                     -1 Kansas State  
0 Texas Tech                          1 TCU             WV                     -1 TCU           

Kansas goes up against the Big 12's most consistent team on Saturday, who also happens to have the
most positive trend.  It's a single-digit margin for Kansas that could be down to a single
possession.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +2.65    Texas Tech        5.74    Texas Tech      +1.05 +/- 0.31    Iowa State      +0.28 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +1.92    Kansas            8.02    Kansas          +0.79 +/- 0.57    Oklahoma State  +0.17 +/- 0.29
Oklahoma        +1.72    Kansas State      8.40    Texas           +0.09 +/- 0.80    Kansas State    +0.14 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      +1.07    Oklahoma          8.58    Oklahoma State  +0.06 +/- 0.74    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.20
Iowa State      +0.54    Iowa State        9.06    Kansas State    -0.05 +/- 0.58    TCU             -0.07 +/- 0.20
Texas           +0.21    TCU               9.64    Oklahoma        -0.29 +/- 0.66    Kansas          -0.11 +/- 0.21
Baylor          -0.01    West Virginia    10.43    TCU             -0.58 +/- 0.64    Texas Tech      -0.18 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    -0.16    Oklahoma State   10.77    West Virginia   -0.60 +/- 0.70    Baylor          -0.25 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma State  -0.28    Texas            11.66    Iowa State      -0.89 +/- 0.57    Texas           -0.37 +/- 0.28
TCU             -0.50    Baylor           11.83    Baylor          -1.44 +/- 0.81    West Virginia   -0.51 +/- 0.23

Prophetic:  "As usual, Schedule Strengths are fairly low but will improve rapidly as conference
play accumulates."  Kansas State's strength of schedule ranking improved 76 spots.  At least
everybody is out of the 300+ ranking range, and half of the conference is in the top tier.
Triple overtime games have a way of distorting average offense, average defenese, and total
points; expect those numbers to slowly drop for Kansas and Oklahoma.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    ---------------------------
Oklahoma        87.69    Kansas State    64.07    Oklahoma        159.15    West Virginia   +22.14    Texas           78.18 (  9)
West Virginia   86.21    West Virginia   64.07    Iowa State      157.43    Kansas          +17.15    Oklahoma        76.84 ( 20)
Kansas          86.00    Oklahoma State  64.21    Kansas          154.85    Oklahoma        +16.23    Kansas          76.43 ( 26)
Iowa State      84.14    Texas Tech      67.31    West Virginia   150.29    Iowa State      +10.86    Iowa State      75.52 ( 51)
Baylor          78.15    Baylor          67.62    Baylor          145.77    Baylor          +10.54    Texas Tech      74.60 ( 78)
Texas Tech      74.92    TCU             68.14    Texas           143.07    Kansas State     +7.64    Kansas State    72.51 (155)
Texas           73.86    Kansas          68.85    Texas Tech      142.23    Texas Tech       +7.62    West Virginia   71.79 (188)
Kansas State    71.71    Texas           69.21    TCU             139.21    Oklahoma State   +5.86    Baylor          70.35 (252)
TCU             71.07    Oklahoma        71.46    Kansas State    135.79    Texas            +4.64    Oklahoma State  70.05 (263)
Oklahoma State  70.07    Iowa State      73.29    Oklahoma State  134.29    TCU              +2.93    TCU             69.08 (295)