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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Updated Odds -- Now Using the DPPI
- CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 10 months ago #927
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
I finished programming my probability module of the DPPI so now I can do all the probabilities much faster. The DPPI shows the Big 12 to be much more bifurcated. The top 5 teams are seriously separated from the bottom 5 teams. The top 5 teams are projected to win an average of 12.2 games while the bottom 5 are projected to win an average of 5.8 games. KU's odds of winning the big 12 are pretty decent at this point at 25% outright and 43% shared. .
-Projected Conference Wins-
Team Wins
----------- ------
Kansas 13.0
Oklahoma 12.6
West Virginia 12.4
Texas 11.8
Iowa St. 11.5
Baylor 7.4
Kansas St. 7.0
Texas Tech 6.4
TCU 4.3
Oklahoma St. 3.5 --Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--
Team Solo Shared
----------- ------ ------
Kansas 24.9% 43.1%
Oklahoma 17.3% 33.0%
West Virginia 14.5% 28.9%
Texas 7.9% 18.0%
Iowa St. 6.0% 14.7%
Baylor 0.0% 0.1%
Kansas St. 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Tech 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0%--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--
Opponent City Prob
----------- ----------- --------
Baylor Lawrence 68.7%
Oklahoma Lawrence 56.3%
Texas Tech Lubbock 74.1%
West Virginia Morgantown 37.0%
TCU Lawrence 91.5%
Oklahoma St. Stillwater 74.0%
Texas Lawrence 75.2%
Iowa St. Ames 40.0%
Kansas St. Lawrence 82.5%
TCU Fort Worth 77.2%
West Virginia Lawrence 61.6%
Oklahoma Norman 32.1%
Oklahoma St. Lawrence 89.8%
Kansas St. Manhattan 62.1%
Baylor Waco 44.5%
Texas Tech Lawrence 89.8%
Texas Austin 52.2%
Iowa St. Lawrence 64.6%Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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- mtnMan
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8 years 10 months ago #944
by mtnMan
Is West Virginia really that good?
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- CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 10 months ago #945
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Good question. As of this morning I had West Virginia with the 10th best rating Div 1. The Massey Composite of 42 computer rankings has them ranked 11th. They lost by 16 to Virginia who is ranked 12th in my rating. They also beat San Diego State by 22 on a neutral court. Recall that KU beat SDSU by 13 on the road. So that is a 5 point advantage to WVU over KU on the common opponents. They will be exceedingly difficult in Morgantown. I will stick with my projection of 12-13 games for West Virginia for now. I think they are for real.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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