predictions for San Diego State game

Today we have one of the highest scoring teams in college basketball going up
against one of the lowest scoring teams.  How will that play out?  Kansas has
scored a minimum of 70 points while going over 90 points five times so far
this season.  Meanwhile, San Diego State has scored a maximum of 84 points,
but has scored 50 points or fewer four times so far this season.  Like Montana,
the Aztecs have been inconsistent.  Their win over a ranked California team
is the biggest feather in their cap right now, but the loss at home to Grand
Canyon in their most recent game makes you wonder if the Aztecs are any threat.
Huggy Bear crushed them on a neutral court by 22 points.  Although San Diego
State has 7 wins, one of them came against an NAIA school (San Diego Christian),
and another came against a school that is in the process of moving up to
Division II (Biola), so their record against Division I competition is a
mediocre 5-5.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 9.9 point margin, with an 82.0 percent probability of
winning the game.  Kansas has been playing 1.9 points above expectation, while
San Diego State has been playing 0.6 points below expectation, which means that
the margin could be 12.3 points.  The Montana game flipped the sign on the trend
for Kansas, while the Aztecs have a negative trend, though neither is statistically
significant.  Both teams have tiny negative mental toughness ratings that also are
not statistically significant.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas increases
to 18.4 points.  Kansas has played only one of its nine Division I games below
expectation by enough to lose today's game (Harvard), corresponding to an 11 percent
chance of losing.  Meanwhile, San Diego state has played three of its ten Division I
games above expectation by enough to win today's game, corresponding to a 30 percent
change of winning.  The average of those two is 20.6 percent, roughly consistent
with the Sagarin probability.

Massey gives Kansas an 8 point margin with a 77 percent probability of
winning the game.  He is predicting a final score of 69 to 61.  That would
be the lowest scoring game that Kansas has played this season.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 16.5 units, but San Diego
State has the better adjusted defense by 0.3 units, which combine to a 16.2 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 71.0 possessions per game, the margin
for Kansas works out to 11.5 points on a neutral court.  Subtract Sagarin's 3.4
point home court advantage, and the margin becomes 8.1 points.  The ratings suggest
a score of Kansas 74, San Diego State 66.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 6.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 71 to either 64 or 65 (you pick the rounding).  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of eight categories; San Diego
State grabs more total rebounds per game and attempts more free throws per field
goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just
three of seven categories, namely offensive rebounds per game, steals per game,
and personal fouls per game.  That last one helps to negate the Aztec's advantage
in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 13 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at 6
points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total points projection
of 128, the implied final score is Kansas 70.5, San Diego State 57.5 (you pick the
roundings).  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 133.5, which would imply a
final score of Kansas 70, San Diego State 64.

Real Time gives Kansas just a 2.0 point margin, with a 55.0 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 82, San Diego State 80.
Interesting that Real Time thinks that Kansas will dictate the tempo rather than
San Diego State.  That's the highest point total of the bunch.  Real Time must
also be using a considerably larger home court advantage than Sagarin does.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 9.5 point margin with a 79.2 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 73, San Diego State 64.

What is Colley smoking?  After briefly ranking Kansas ahead of Texas Tech, it's
back to the way it was earlier.  Tech is up at #12, with their best win now being
against #51 South Dakota State, while Kansas is down at #24, with our best win
being against #37 Oregon State.  Not Vanderbilt?  Not UCLA?

Whitlock's ratings differential is 19.8 units, but we need to calibrate that
differential.  Previously, Whitlock had Oklahoma on top with a rating of 64.28
and Central Connecticut at the bottom with a rating of 0.00, while Sagarin had
those two teams with ratings of 93.91 and 52.66, so the differential for Whitlock
is 64.28 while the differential for Sagarin is 41.25, suggesting a scaling factor
of 0.642, so the 19.8 unit differential becomes 12.7 points on a neutral court.
Subtract Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage, and the margin becomes 9.3 points.
I'll plan on tweaking the scaling after the ratings stabilize later this month.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 10.8; subtract Sagarin's
3.4 point home court advantage, and the margin for Kansas becomes 7.4 points.

LMRC is not yet available for this season.  I'm showing their rankings for Kansas
and San Diego State from last season.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, corresponding to a 77 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 73 to 66.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 9.4 point margin.

There are no common opponents, though this game will create another common
opponent when we play West Virginia.

Players to watch:  Guard Jeremy Helmsley is the key; control him and you control
the game.  He plays the most minutes, scores the most points, and dishes the most
assists, but he also commits the most turnovers and personal fouls.  Forward
Zylan Cheatham grabs the most rebounds.  Guard Dakarai Allen is their leading
thief.  Forward Skylar Spencer is their leading shot blocker.

The average of the various prognostications is 9.0 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 73, San Diego State 64.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #159   #  5   #  6   #  5   +1.9    8.8   +0.74 +/- 1.18   -0.02 +/- 0.24
San Diego St.  # 81   # 88   # 76   # 77   # 84   -0.6   12.4   -1.12 +/- 1.39   -0.07 +/- 0.38
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  6  # 33   #  5   #161   #  2  #  5    # 14    #  5   #168   # 31   #146
San Diego St.  #105  # 98   # 79   #124   # 98  #110    # 73    #102   # 35   #114   # 44
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  8   #  8   #  7   # 26   # 31   #  9   #  7   0.953    9-1
San Diego St.  #144   #149   # 97   #145   #109   #149   #135   0.279    7-5
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 24  #156    #  8  #108    # 22  #149    # 10  #  1    #  6  # 37    #  7  # 21
San Diego St.  #122  # 29    #125  #143    #132  #134    # 26  # 87    #120  # 78    #104  # 35

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #323 Northern Colorado          109  72   +36.21    +0.79
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    -1.78    -4.22
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 45 UCLA                        92  73   +10.61    +8.39
NEUT   #  8 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +0.46    +6.54
HOME   #288 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.99    +0.01
HOME   #132 Harvard                     75  69   +20.99   -14.99
HOME   #242 Holy Cross                  92  59   +28.93    +4.07
HOME   # 63 Oregon State                82  67   +15.47    -0.47
HOME   #185 Montana                     88  46   +25.34   +16.66
AWAY   # 76 San Diego State                       +9.85             0.820
HOME   # 94 UC Irvine                            +17.90             0.964
HOME   # 29 Baylor                               +10.15             0.842
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                              +3.28             0.644
AWAY   # 55 Texas Tech                            +8.14             0.845
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                         -3.24             0.372
HOME   #123 TCU                                  +20.53             0.990
AWAY   # 98 Oklahoma State                       +11.77             0.888
HOME   # 34 Texas                                +11.65             0.857
AWAY   # 26 Iowa State                            +2.16             0.594
HOME   # 28 Kentucky                              +9.86             0.839
HOME   # 53 Kansas State                         +14.88             0.953
AWAY   #123 TCU                                  +13.65             0.938
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         +3.64             0.644
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -3.60             0.343
HOME   # 98 Oklahoma State                       +18.65             0.973
AWAY   # 53 Kansas State                          +8.00             0.816
AWAY   # 29 Baylor                                +3.27             0.626
HOME   # 55 Texas Tech                           +15.02             0.970
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 +4.77             0.669
HOME   # 26 Iowa State                            +9.04             0.840

Here is San Diego State's season to-date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #176 Illinois State              71  60   +11.46    -0.46
AWAY   # 49 Utah                        76  81    -5.80    +0.80
NAIA        San Diego Christian         71  61
HOME   # 52 Little Rock                 43  49    +1.58    -7.58
HOME   #166 East Carolina               79  54   +10.68   +14.32
NEUT   # 42 California                  72  58    -2.80   +16.80
NEUT   #  7 West Virginia               50  72   -13.09    -8.91
AWAY   #124 Long Beach State            76  72    +0.38    +3.62
NEUT   #274 San Diego                   48  53   +15.13   -20.13
Div2        Biola                       73  53
HOME   #343 Nicholls State              84  47   +26.54   +10.46
HOME   #139 Grand Canyon                45  52    +8.18   -15.18
HOME   #  5 Kansas                                -9.85             0.180