predictions for Oregon game

Kansas ended the regular season with an inconsistency rating of 6.5 points,
an incredibly low figure.  After playing 13.5 points above expectation
against UC Davis, the inconsistency crept up to about 6.8 points.  After
playing 11.0 points above expectation against Michigan State, the value
edged up to 7.2 points.  And now, after dismantling Purdue with a performance
that was 28.8 points above expectation, the inconsistency has jumped to 8.7
points.  That's still way below the national average.  The question now is,
can the Jayhawks sustain this higher level of performance for another three
games?  The Oregon Ducks are up next.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 3.01 point margin, with a 62.0 percent probability
of winning the game.  Oregon has been playing games that average 144.6
total points, comparable to TCU, the sixth-highest scoring team in the
Big 12.  By comparison, Kansas has been playing games that average
155.7 total points, the second-highest in the Big 12, and that total has
been edging higher during the Big Dance.  The average of the two teams is
therefore 150.2 points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 77, Oregon 74,
with the rounding pushing the total a little past 150.2 points.  Kansas has
been playing 0.58 points above expectation, averaged over the entire season,
while the Ducks have been playing 0.64 points above expectation, which
decreases the margin for Kansas to 2.95 points.  The Jayhawks have played
played 12 of 35 games below expectation by more than 3 points, which would
be enough to lose today's game, for a 34.3 percent chance of losing.
Meanwhile, Oregon has played 11 of 36 games above expectation by more than
3 points, which would be enough to win today's game, for a 30.6 percent
chance of winning.  Those two odds average to a 32.4 percent probability of
Kansas losing, somewhat more optimistic than the 38.0 percent chance of
losing derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Kansas now has a
strongly positive trend of statistical significance, and although Oregon
also has a positive trend, theirs is not statistically significant.  Both
teams have negative mental toughness ratings; the value for Kansas is not
statistically significant while the value for Oregon is.  Taken at face
value, the margin for Kansas would be 5.82 points.  The various Sagarin
rating methods show margins ranging from 3.01 points (Predictor) to 4.83
points (Elo Chess).  The "offense-defense" method has a margin of 3.64
points and a final score of Kansas 79, Oregon 75.

As noted last time, all these prognostications are based on the game
being played on a neutral court.  In reality, however, Kansas is playing
on a familiar Sprint Center court with a pro-Kansas crowd in attendance.
If we instead treated it as a home game, Sagarin's 3.04 point home court
advantage would kick in, and the probability of winning jumps to 73.0
percent.

Massey gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 65 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 80, Oregon 76.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 4.5 units, while
the adjusted defenses have identical ratings.  With an average of 68.6
possessions, the margin works out to be 3.09 points in favor of Kansas.
The final score would be Kansas 75, Oregon 72.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 6.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 81.5 (you pick the rounding), Oregon 75.  Once again, it looks to
me like Greenfield is taking into account the fact that the Sprint Center
is more like a home game for Kansas.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in six out of eight categories; Oregon has a larger average
margin of victory by 0.8 points (but that's against a weaker schedule) and
commits 0.6 percent fewer turnovers.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in just three of the seven categories, namely grabbing 1.7
more offensive rebounds per game, grabbing 1.5 more defensive rebounds per
game, and stealing 0.4 more balls per game.

Dunkel calls the game even, and he claims that a Vegas line is at 7.0 points,
so he is picking Oregon against the spread.  His total points is 162.0,
suggesting a "final" score of Kansas 81, Oregon 81.  Meanwhile, the Vegas
total is 156.0, suggesting a final score of Kansas 81.5, Oregon 74.5 (you
pick the roundings).

Real Time gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 58.3 percent probability of
winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 80, Oregon 76.  Curious that
Real Time has the result of the Purdue game listed, but not the Michigan State
game.

Another oddity is that Collegiate Basketball News is continuing to update the
RPI.  In past seasons, once Selection Sunday had occurred, the RPI was frozen.
Anyway, Kansas climbed to #2 in the RPI behind Kentucky.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 3.58 point margin, with a 62.0 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 78, Oregon 74.

Colley gives Kansas a 2.89 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 1.98 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously.  It should be noted that Whitlock hasn't updated his
ratings with the results of the NCAA Tournament games.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 2.6 point margin, with a 59.8 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas remains at #7 in the LRMC, which also hasn't been updated with the
results of the NCAA Tournament games.

Seven Overtimes doesn't have predictions for Saturday's games up yet.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 0.99 point margin, but his ratings also haven't been
updated since the end of the regular season.

There are two common opponents, one of which Kansas has played twice, giving
us three scores to compare:

KU  +18 UNLV on road (+21 neutral court)
UO  +20 UNLV neutral (+20 neutral court)
KU   +1 UO   neutral ( +1 neutral court)

KU   +2 BU   on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU   at home ( +2 neutral court)
UO  -17 BU   on road (-14 neutral court)     UO  -17 BU   on road (-14 neutral court) 
KU  +19 UO   neutral (+19 neutral court)     KU  +16 UO   neutral (+16 neutral court)

All three comparisons favor Kansas, and by an average of 12 points.
However, it should be noted that Oregon lost to Baylor at a time when Dillon Brooks
was out.  On the other hand, Boucher did play in that game, and now he is out.

Players to watch:  Guard Dylan Ennis plays the most minutes, but that's it; forward
Dillon Brooks scores the most points, but also commits the most turnovers as well as
the most personal fouls; forward Jordan Bell grabs the most rebounds and steals the
most balls; guard Payton Pritchard dishes the most assists; forward Christopher
Boucher blocks the most shots, but he's out with a torn ACL (he was their third-leading
scorer).

So, the various prognostications range from a toss up (Dunkel) to a 12.0 point win
(common opponents).  The average is 4.03 points in favor of Kansas, suggesting a
final score of Kansas 77, Oregon 73.  Don't be surprised if the Jayhawks hang 90+
on the Ducks.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  4   #  6   #  5   #  2   #  2   +0.6    8.7   +0.23 +/- 0.14   -0.09 +/- 0.17
Oregon         # 12   # 60   # 12   # 10   # 10   +0.6   10.9   +0.15 +/- 0.18   -0.34 +/- 0.22
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  2   #  3   #  7   #  4  #  2    #  8    #  3   # 31   #  2   # 24
Oregon         #  6  # 48   # 14   # 64   # 12  # 37    #  5    #  9   # 52   #  8   # 33
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  4   #  1   #  2   #  1   #  2   1.174   31-4 
Oregon         #  9   # 10   # 14   #  8   #  8   #  9   # 12   0.771   32-5
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  # 21    #  5  #  6    #  5  # 15    #  7  #  3    # 11  # 12    # 11  # 24
Oregon         #  8  # 58    # 14  # 67    # 10  # 69    # 16  # 62    # 10  # 29    # 17  # 73

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher seeded opponent in the
tournament bracket, along with the cumulative probability of reaching
that level and ultimately winning the national championship (12.5 percent):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +8.14   -12.14
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +1.69    +0.31
HOME   #173 Siena                       86  65   +25.15    -4.15
HOME   #168 UAB                         83  63   +24.75    -4.75
HOME   # 54 Georgia                     65  54   +14.50    -3.50
HOME   #123 NC Asheville                95  57   +22.28   +15.72
HOME   #205 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.64    +2.36
HOME   # 87 Stanford                    89  74   +18.82    -3.82
HOME   #234 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +29.15   +13.85
HOME   # 98 Nebraska                    89  72   +19.58    -2.58
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +18.20    -0.20
AWAY   #224 UNLV                        71  53   +22.55    -4.55
AWAY   # 37 TCU                         86  80    +6.13    -0.13
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                90  88   +11.66    -9.66
HOME   # 41 Texas Tech                  85  68   +12.41    +4.59
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.63    +2.37
HOME   # 22 Oklahoma State              87  80    +8.05    -1.05
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.30    +3.70
HOME   # 60 Texas                       79  67   +14.84    -2.84
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               69  85    -3.28   -12.72
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    79  73    -2.94    +8.94
HOME   # 17 Baylor                      73  68    +6.92    -1.92
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.38    -9.38
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                74  71    +5.58    -2.58
AWAY   # 41 Texas Tech                  80  79    +6.33    -5.33
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               84  80    +2.80    +1.20
AWAY   # 17 Baylor                      67  65    +0.84    +1.16
HOME   # 37 TCU                         87  68   +12.21    +6.79
AWAY   # 60 Texas                       77  67    +8.76    +1.24
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                    73  63   +14.71    -4.71
AWAY   # 22 Oklahoma State              90  85    +1.97    +3.03
NEUT   # 37 TCU                         82  85    +9.17   -12.17
NEUT   #203 UC Davis                   100  62   +24.49   +13.51
NEUT   # 34 Michigan State              90  70    +9.04   +10.96
NEUT   # 13 Purdue                      98  66    +3.16   +28.84
NEUT   # 12 Oregon                                +3.01             0.620    0.620
NEUT   #  2 North Carolina                        -0.90             0.464    0.288
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -1.65             0.434    0.125

Here is Oregon's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #240 Army                        91  77   +26.80   -12.80
AWAY   # 17 Baylor                      49  66    -2.17   -14.83
HOME   #100 Valparaiso                  76  54   +16.75    +5.25
NEUT   # 59 Georgetown                  61  65    +8.68   -12.68
NEUT   # 65 Tennessee                   69  65    +9.28    -5.28
NEUT   # 79 Connecticut                 79  69   +11.66    -1.66
HOME   # 93 Boise State                 68  63   +16.12   -11.12
Div2        Western Oregon              93  54
HOME   #330 Savannah State             128  59   +34.71   +34.29
HOME   # 55 Alabama                     65  56   +11.57    -2.57
HOME   #187 Montana                     81  67   +23.12    -9.12
NEUT   #224 UNLV                        83  63   +22.58    -2.58
HOME   #104 Fresno State                75  63   +17.03    -5.03
HOME   # 14 UCLA                        89  87    +3.29    -1.29
HOME   # 52 Southern California         84  61   +11.28   +11.72
AWAY   #127 Washington                  83  61   +13.26    +8.74
AWAY   #177 Washington State            85  66   +16.20    +2.80
HOME   #225 Oregon State                85  43   +25.64   +16.36
HOME   # 53 California                  86  63   +11.28   +11.72
HOME   # 87 Stanford                    69  52   +15.81    +1.19
AWAY   # 46 Utah                        73  67    +3.95    +2.05
AWAY   # 68 Colorado                    65  74    +6.81   -15.81
HOME   #111 Arizona State               71  70   +18.40   -17.40
HOME   # 20 Arizona                     85  58    +4.54   +22.46
AWAY   # 14 UCLA                        79  82    -2.79    -0.21
AWAY   # 52 Southern California         81  70    +5.20    +5.80
HOME   # 46 Utah                        79  61   +10.03    +7.97
HOME   # 68 Colorado                   101  73   +12.89   +15.11
AWAY   # 53 California                  68  65    +5.20    -2.20
AWAY   # 87 Stanford                    75  73    +9.73    -7.73
AWAY   #225 Oregon State                80  59   +19.56    +1.44
NEUT   #111 Arizona State               80  57   +15.36    +7.64
NEUT   # 53 California                  73  65    +8.24    -0.24
NEUT   # 20 Arizona                     80  83    +1.50    -4.50
NEUT   #124 Iona                        93  77   +16.23    -0.23
NEUT   # 44 Rhode Island                75  72    +6.40    -3.40
NEUT   # 21 Michigan                    69  68    +1.69    -0.69
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                                -3.01             0.380